Cramer: "The New Negative Thesis"
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O estilo do Cramer fica um completo puzzle quando posto na forma escrita. Á velocidade com que mistura metáforas com ironia dá em que fico muitas vezes inseguro em ter percebido qual a tese que pretende defender. Pelo menos até à única linha onde ele é directo no que quer dizer:
Visto deste ponto de vista, tudo fica mais claro...
Pelo meio, ou eu percebi mal ou ele insinua que o Roubini é “amigo da pipa”…
Espero que nisso tenha razão...
“At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Bank of America, BP and Goldman Sachs."
Visto deste ponto de vista, tudo fica mais claro...
Pelo meio, ou eu percebi mal ou ele insinua que o Roubini é “amigo da pipa”…
The backbone of all of this thinking in Nouriel Roubini, who never got it wrong, no matter what people like me say. He's the chief articulator when he is not partying like a mad man, as one of my friends who hung out with him this weekend reports.
Espero que nisso tenha razão...
"In God we trust. Everyone else, bring data" - M Bloomberg
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Cramer: "The New Negative Thesis"
"The New Negative Thesis"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/17/2010 6:13 AM EDT
"An odd and enervated consensus seems to be building at this very moment. The thesis: 1937 is almost upon us. That's the nightmare scenario in which the recovery stalls out and we return to dark days -- the last time brought on by interest rate hikes, this time brought on by tax hikes to close deficits, well-meaning tax hikes that fall too soon, given the difficulties of our trading partners China, Latin America and Europe.
The consensus is airtight. It seemingly can't be defeated. Europe's plan, whatever it is, whatever it was meant to be, must fail, by the nature of the inability to cut back or by the ability to cut back. This exercise in arguing in the alternative holds that if the International Monetary Fund gets its way, then the countries it lends to are so impoverished that they take all of Europe down. If the IMF doesn't get its way than the countries that are so profligate take every one down. Integral to this thesis is that a collapse in the euro takes everything and everyone down, including major European banks with big holdings here that will, of course, take everyone down.
We know this is all true because "we," notice I am not saying "the bears" but the collective "we," are gauging everything by the decline in the euro (catastrophic) and the decline in oil (double dip's primary exhibit).
The backbone of all of this thinking in Nouriel Roubini, who never got it wrong, no matter what people like me say. He's the chief articulator when he is not partying like a mad man, as one of my friends who hung out with him this weekend reports. At least he's not personally the Cassandra he plays on endless TV appearances -- clearly the most important thinker of our time.
Of course, if anyone doubts the full impact of the euro and its wave-like debacle washing up here as surely as the 50 billion gallons of oil soon to wipe out the American south -- didn't you know that? -- then, to quote Barry McGuire, the man who sung "Eve of Destruction" more than 40 years ago, "Think of all the hate, there is in Red China," no doubt meaning the hate of inflation because it sure isn't of growth. It's China's checkmate to those who think that Europe's only in check.
What about the U.S. itself, supposedly gaining steam? The new negative thesis has that covered to: April was bad, we learned recently, with estimate cuts from major retailers and incentives - YES, INCENTIVES -- from Ford (F - commentary - Trade Now). Don't worry, it will only get worse as the taxes of 2011 kick in, including many meant to wreck the stock market, like the dividend tax, which is now creeping in to the discussion and will make dividends less advantageous and therefore less protective.
Along these lines is a hardcore belief that Congress and the president are united in the desire to both punish and confiscate the wealth of shareholders, who we know are all wealthy so they can handle themselves. It is part of the great repeal of the government for, by and off the corporations that reigned, horribly, they say, over the Bush years.
Do you know that all comebacks from this reasoning are considered superficial and unrigorous? The idea that the U.S. can be an engine of growth that can offset Europe is taken off the table by the government. The idea that Europe cannot bring us down even as it hasn't brought the German economy down -- their stock market's up even with ours is considered fanciful. The idea that China can do anything other than collapse under its own real estate weight is totally dismissed.
The idea that we could have a healthy 8% growth rate in China, after a braking of the real estate market, or a healthy return to slight house price appreciation, something that is predominating in a majority of metropolitan areas in this country, are both foolish pipedreams by dreamers and permabulls, of which I am identified as the archetype even as I am the only one I know who went hard bearish in at Dow 11,000 and stayed that way until Dow 6500, another FACT that is disputed as a lie.
No matter. There's no getting around the failure of everything, or why else would oil be down? Isn't oil always the barometer of the economy's health, except, that is when it went to $140 when we had already started the Great Recession. Leave that out, doesn't fit the thesis.
To which I want to ask, "Wait a second, does anyone mind if we do a textual analysis of the doomsday theory?" But you know what? As I said, I am letting the pessimism build, letting the skepticism get the upper hand, the collapse, if there is one, occur, without me participating but just watching, with some cash and some accidental high-yielders, accepting the total hopelessness of the moment because I am not so stupid or so inexperienced to fight a consensus trend that doesn't acknowledge its consensus nature, lest it loses its gravitas as a sub rose antidote to all of the alleged bullishness out there, even as it is gossamer and chimerical to say the least.
As Bob Dylan sang, accept that a "Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall," and try not to get too wet until prices are right and discounted for the coming Armageddon, wherever those prices are. I trust myself to judge that even though anyone who tries is viewed as a foolish alchemist who doesn't get that we are going back to the world of Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now) at $3, Ford at $4, Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now) at $15, and, two new ones, BP (BP - commentary - Trade Now) and Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) at zero.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Bank of America, BP and Goldman Sachs."
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/17/2010 6:13 AM EDT
"An odd and enervated consensus seems to be building at this very moment. The thesis: 1937 is almost upon us. That's the nightmare scenario in which the recovery stalls out and we return to dark days -- the last time brought on by interest rate hikes, this time brought on by tax hikes to close deficits, well-meaning tax hikes that fall too soon, given the difficulties of our trading partners China, Latin America and Europe.
The consensus is airtight. It seemingly can't be defeated. Europe's plan, whatever it is, whatever it was meant to be, must fail, by the nature of the inability to cut back or by the ability to cut back. This exercise in arguing in the alternative holds that if the International Monetary Fund gets its way, then the countries it lends to are so impoverished that they take all of Europe down. If the IMF doesn't get its way than the countries that are so profligate take every one down. Integral to this thesis is that a collapse in the euro takes everything and everyone down, including major European banks with big holdings here that will, of course, take everyone down.
We know this is all true because "we," notice I am not saying "the bears" but the collective "we," are gauging everything by the decline in the euro (catastrophic) and the decline in oil (double dip's primary exhibit).
The backbone of all of this thinking in Nouriel Roubini, who never got it wrong, no matter what people like me say. He's the chief articulator when he is not partying like a mad man, as one of my friends who hung out with him this weekend reports. At least he's not personally the Cassandra he plays on endless TV appearances -- clearly the most important thinker of our time.
Of course, if anyone doubts the full impact of the euro and its wave-like debacle washing up here as surely as the 50 billion gallons of oil soon to wipe out the American south -- didn't you know that? -- then, to quote Barry McGuire, the man who sung "Eve of Destruction" more than 40 years ago, "Think of all the hate, there is in Red China," no doubt meaning the hate of inflation because it sure isn't of growth. It's China's checkmate to those who think that Europe's only in check.
What about the U.S. itself, supposedly gaining steam? The new negative thesis has that covered to: April was bad, we learned recently, with estimate cuts from major retailers and incentives - YES, INCENTIVES -- from Ford (F - commentary - Trade Now). Don't worry, it will only get worse as the taxes of 2011 kick in, including many meant to wreck the stock market, like the dividend tax, which is now creeping in to the discussion and will make dividends less advantageous and therefore less protective.
Along these lines is a hardcore belief that Congress and the president are united in the desire to both punish and confiscate the wealth of shareholders, who we know are all wealthy so they can handle themselves. It is part of the great repeal of the government for, by and off the corporations that reigned, horribly, they say, over the Bush years.
Do you know that all comebacks from this reasoning are considered superficial and unrigorous? The idea that the U.S. can be an engine of growth that can offset Europe is taken off the table by the government. The idea that Europe cannot bring us down even as it hasn't brought the German economy down -- their stock market's up even with ours is considered fanciful. The idea that China can do anything other than collapse under its own real estate weight is totally dismissed.
The idea that we could have a healthy 8% growth rate in China, after a braking of the real estate market, or a healthy return to slight house price appreciation, something that is predominating in a majority of metropolitan areas in this country, are both foolish pipedreams by dreamers and permabulls, of which I am identified as the archetype even as I am the only one I know who went hard bearish in at Dow 11,000 and stayed that way until Dow 6500, another FACT that is disputed as a lie.
No matter. There's no getting around the failure of everything, or why else would oil be down? Isn't oil always the barometer of the economy's health, except, that is when it went to $140 when we had already started the Great Recession. Leave that out, doesn't fit the thesis.
To which I want to ask, "Wait a second, does anyone mind if we do a textual analysis of the doomsday theory?" But you know what? As I said, I am letting the pessimism build, letting the skepticism get the upper hand, the collapse, if there is one, occur, without me participating but just watching, with some cash and some accidental high-yielders, accepting the total hopelessness of the moment because I am not so stupid or so inexperienced to fight a consensus trend that doesn't acknowledge its consensus nature, lest it loses its gravitas as a sub rose antidote to all of the alleged bullishness out there, even as it is gossamer and chimerical to say the least.
As Bob Dylan sang, accept that a "Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall," and try not to get too wet until prices are right and discounted for the coming Armageddon, wherever those prices are. I trust myself to judge that even though anyone who tries is viewed as a foolish alchemist who doesn't get that we are going back to the world of Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now) at $3, Ford at $4, Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now) at $15, and, two new ones, BP (BP - commentary - Trade Now) and Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) at zero.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Bank of America, BP and Goldman Sachs."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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