CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:[...]"the pattern is becoming a bit too obvious. We all know that the market does a great job of teaching us a pattern over and over again and as soon as we learn it the pattern changes."

Cem por cento de acordo com isso
E hoje os índices americanos até estão a dar já um exemplo disso! Nem de propósito, Ulissão! (ou se calhar, de propósito )
Abraço!

Eu acho que esse H&S foi pouco badalado porque, ao contrário do outro, é meio estranho. O ombro direito, enfim, é uma sombra de um ombro...

Agora, isso não quer dizer que o momento em que passou aquela fasquia não tenha sido importante e badalado... porque foi!

Eu por exemplo tenho desde essa altura marcada como a zona e resistência mais importante que o S&P ultrapassou em todo este tempo. Não é preciso falar-se de um H&S para considerar esse momento importante. Para mim o importante foi a quebra daquela resistência horizontal...


Já agora, a edição da minha coluna onde aparece a resistência ultrapassada pela primeira vez:

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/index.ph ... &id=379018

Em todas as edições seguintes em que aparece o S&P, continuei sempre com essa resistência assinalada em destaque como importante.

Este h&s foi, conspicuamente, pouco falado. Já o h&s pequeno, que constitui a ida à neckline e o ombro direito do grande h&s invertido foi, vastamente, publicitado. O grande, o que funcionou, era bull. O pequeno, o que foi muito falado e falhou, fragorosamente, era bear. Isto explica muita coisa.

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:But there is another camp no one talks about. It's the camp that way back when measured that big head-and-shoulders bottom on the S&P and came up with a target of 1250-ish.

No semanal é por demais evidente esse HS. Aliás vai de encontro à teoria que suportes, resistências e figuras em gráficos de long-term têm uma validade bastante superior).

Retenho duas notas

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:So my point is that if you're using the lower end of the range (1200), you have to feel as though you're getting awfully close to your target price and thus have no reason to really load the boat here.

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:but whatever it is, I would guess it is likely to change in the next week as the quarter closes and the new one begins. "

"Obvious Market Patterns"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/31/2010 7:00 AM EDT

"So do we have the pattern down by heart now that we've been at it for two weeks? It's a rally attempt in the morning, lasting sometimes until lunchtime, then a plunge, followed by a drying up of selling and a rally attempt in the afternoon.

Now, some might fuss over my use of the word "plunge," but when we're up 6 or 7 points on the S&P 500, or 10 or 12 as we were last week, and we give it all up and then some, it feels like a plunge. But that plunge is enough to get everyone cautious again.

Many wonder why folks are so bearish. I can't exactly say, but when you consider that we have gone nowhere in the indices for two weeks and the majority of stocks that were on the new-high list then are down now, I would guess the answer is because the indices don't go down but the majority of stocks manage to slip down easily. Oh, they aren't plunging, but they are doing what we would call in the old days eighthing and quartering you to death. (Nowadays the expression would be nickel and diming you to death!)

But back to that pattern: It is becoming quite predictable, isn't it?

Lots of folks ask me what I think the consensus is. I believe we are seeing some very different camps set up, and they aren't switching.

One camp is looking for a short-term decline with a chance to buy the dip; one camp is waiting for the market to crack.

But there is another camp no one talks about. It's the camp that way back when measured that big head-and-shoulders bottom on the S&P and came up with a target of 1250-ish. Remember, to get the measurement you take the high of the pattern (950) and subtract the low of the pattern (650) to get 300. You then add 300 onto the breakout at 950 and you get 1250 as your target.

Some folks perhaps prefer round numbers and would use a range of 1200 to 1250. So my point is that if you're using the lower end of the range (1200), you have to feel as though you're getting awfully close to your target price and thus have no reason to really load the boat here.

That doesn't make you a bull or a bear -- this could be the reason for the stalemate in the market these last two weeks.

But whatever has kept the indices hanging around while stocks drift lower, the pattern is becoming a bit too obvious. We all know that the market does a great job of teaching us a pattern over and over again and as soon as we learn it the pattern changes. Perhaps the pattern is simply to start expecting a bit more volatility in the market, but whatever it is, I would guess it is likely to change in the next week as the quarter closes and the new one begins. "

(in www.realmoney.com)