CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Mercados
Publicado 30 Março 2010 18:48
Baixa "outlook"

Fitch coloca Millennium bcp e BES sob perspectivas negativas (act.)


Sara Antunes
saraantunes@negocios.pt


A Fitch reviu o “outlook” do Millennium bcp e do BES para “negativo”, mantendo os “ratings” para a dívida dos dois bancos. A alteração surge devido ao “ambiente operacional desafiante” e ao facto do desempenho deste ano das duas instituições estar “altamente sensível a qualquer reacção adversa dos mercados de capitais” ao combate ao défice.

Numa nota, a agência de notação financeira revela que os “ratings” do Millennium bcp, do BES, do Santander Totta e do Banco BPI foram mantidos. Contudo, o maior banco privado nacional e o BES viram o seu “outlook” revisto em baixa de “estável” para “negativo”.

A Fitch explica que a “revisão reflecte a opinião [da agência de notação financeira] de que o ambiente operacional em Portugal vai permanecer desafiante”, além de destacar que “o desempenho em 2010 do Millennium bcp e do BES deve ser altamente sensível a qualquer reacção adversa dos mercados de capital” à postura de combate dos desequilíbrios orçamentais levada a cabo pelo Governo.

A agência adianta que uma reacção adversa dos mercados pode aumentar os custos de financiamento, o que afectará as margens e a rentabilidade operacional da banca.

Além destes factores “o Millennium bcp enfrenta o desafio de melhorar as contribuições das suas principais operações internacionais”.

Quanto ao Santander Totta, esta instituição, sendo uma subsidiária do espanhol Banco Santander não sofreu qualquer alteração, com a Fitch a salientar que há “uma probabilidade extremamente elevada de ser suportado” pela casa-mãe e que por isso qualquer alteração de “outlook” será devido a mudanças no Banco Santander.

O BPI, que já conta com um “Outlook” negativo desde Agosto de 2009, viu mantida a sua situação. O banco liderado por Fernando Ulrich já estava sob perspectivas negativas devido “a preocupações relativas à deterioração da sua rentabilidade em Portugal e à elevada resiliência da sua subsidiárias de Angola”, acrescenta a mesma fonte.

Numa nota final, a Fitch diz que “apesar de esperar um crescimento económico baixo em Portugal e, por isso, menor crescimento de empréstimos bancários, espera que os bancos enfrentem razoavelmente bem 2010”, prevendo que o “aumento dos ‘spreads’” nos empréstimos deverá atenuar o aumento dos custos de financiamento.
“A qualidade de activos dos maiores bancos portugueses deve verificar alguma deterioração em 2010”, uma vez que as condições económicas deverão permanecer frágeis, alerta a Ficth que ainda assim espera que a situação seja de alguma forma contornada.
No que respeita ao crédito malparado, a agência prevê uma “manutenção num nível semelhante ao de 2009”.

e a do bpi como ficou.

Fitch Revises Outlook on Portugal's Millennium bcp and BES; Affirms Santander Totta and Banco BPI Ratings
30 Mar 2010 1:09 PM (EDT)
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Fitch Ratings-London/Barcelona-30 March 2010: Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlooks on two major Portuguese banks, Banco Comercial Portugues (Millennium bcp) and Banco Espirito Santo (BES), to Negative from Stable, while affirming all ratings.
At the same time, the agency has affirmed all ratings for two other large Portuguese banks, Santander Totta SGPS (Santander Totta) and Banco BPI, and their respective subsidiaries, Banco Santander Totta SA, and Banco Portugues de Investimento (BPI). A full rating breakdown is provided at the end of this comment.

The Outlook revision reflects Fitch's opinion that the operating environment in Portugal will remain challenging. The agency notes that Millennium bcp's and BES' performance in 2010 would be highly sensitive to any adverse reaction on capital markets to the Portuguese government's fiscal position. Any adverse reaction could increase wholesale funding costs, ultimately affecting the banks' margins and operating profitability. Moreover, Millennium bcp faces the challenge to improve the contributions from its main international operations.

The rating action follows the downgrade of the Republic of Portugal's Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs to 'AA-' from 'AA' with Negative Outlook on 24 March 2010. The Negative Outlook on the Republic of Portugal reflects Fitch's concern about the potential impact of the global economic crisis on Portugal's economy and public finances over the medium term, given the country's existing structural weaknesses and high indebtedness across all sectors of the economy.

Santander Totta and Banco Santander Totta SA are wholly owned by Banco Santander SA (rated 'AA'/'Stable'/'F1+') and their ratings are driven by an extremely high probability of support from their parent. Any change in the Long and Short-term IDRs of Santander Totta and Banco Santander Totta SA would come from a change in Santander's ratings.

Banco BPI's Long-term IDR has been on Negative Outlook since August 2009 reflecting concerns regarding its deteriorating profitability in Portugal and high reliance on earnings from its Angolan subsidiary. BPI's ratings are aligned with those of its parent Banco BPI, reflecting the extremely high probability of support, in case of need.

Although the agency expects lower economic growth in Portugal and therefore lower banks' loan growth, it expects the banks to cope reasonably well in 2010, as higher funding costs for Portuguese banks are expected to be partially offset by continued increase of lending spreads. Asset quality in the larger Portuguese banks is likely to experience some deterioration in 2010, as economic conditions remain subdued, although Fitch expects this to be manageable and the loan impairment charges are likely to remain at a similar level to 2009.

Millennium bcp:
Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A+' Outlook revised to Negative from Stable
Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1'
Individual Rating affirmed at 'B/C'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'BBB'
Senior debt affirmed at 'A+'
Lower tier 2 subordinated debt affirmed at 'A'
Commercial paper programme affirmed at 'F1'
Preference shares affirmed at 'A-'

BES:
Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A+' Outlook revised to Negative from Stable
Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1'
Individual Rating affirmed at 'B/C'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'BBB-'
Senior debt issues affirmed at 'A+'
Lower tier 2 subordinated debt issues affirmed at 'A'
Commercial paper programme affirmed at 'F1'
Preference shares affirmed at 'A-'

Banco BPI:
Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A+' Outlook Negative
Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1'
Individual Rating affirmed at 'B/C'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'BBB-'
Senior debt affirmed at 'A+'
Lower tier 2 subordinated debt affirmed at 'A'
Commercial paper programme affirmed at 'F1'
Preference shares affirmed at 'A-'

BPI:
Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A+' Outlook Negative
Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1'
Support Rating affirmed at '1'


Santander Totta and Banco Santander Totta S.A.:
Long-term IDR affirmed at 'AA' Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1+'
Individual Rating affirmed at 'B'
Support Rating affirmed at '1'
Senior debt affirmed at 'AA'
Commercial paper programme affirmed at 'F1+'
Preference shares affirmed at 'A+'

In Fitch's rating criteria, a bank's standalone risk is reflected in Fitch's Individual ratings and the prospect of external support is reflected in Fitch's Support ratings. Collectively these ratings drive Fitch's Long- and Short-term IDRs.

Applicable criteria, 'Global Financial Institutions Rating Criteria', dated 29 December 2009, are available on www.fitchratings.com.

Contacts: Maria Rivas, London, Tel: +44 (0) 20 7417 6322; Roger Turro, Barcelona, +34 93 323 84 06.

Media Relations: Hannah Warrington, London, Tel: +44 (0) 207 417 6298, Email: hannah.warrington@fitchratings.com.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.