"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Ulisses Pereira]

Timing the Comeuppance
By Todd Harrison
Mar 19, 2010 10:10 am

"(...)

The Metric System

Through a pure technical lens, the eyes have it. The BKX poked through the top end of the trading range and the S&P won't hit resistance until S&P 1200 arrives. They're a context not a catalyst but should be factored into the trading equation. S&P 1150 and 1120 (former resistance) will emerge as support should the flip switch to the downside.

Psychology is tagging along. We've long said the buyers are higher and the sellers are lower and that's again proved true. With quarter-end bearing down, don’t discount the percolating performance anxiety as fund manager's fight for their professional lives.

The latest round of fundamental data points (earnings) stuffed some wind in Hoofy's sails. They beat on the aggregate which, coupled with the "all clear" from Europe (please understand this situation is far from resolved) paved a path of least resistance to the upside.

The risk is Inspector Kemp, with catalyst potentially emerging on the structural front. We recently spoke about the most likely scenario being a Pop (through S&P 1150 to clear out the shorts) and a drop (before S&P 1200 or quart-end arrives). I would also note the uniformity of opinion and general complacency, as measured by the VXO. A viot vud be an ugly thang indeed.

Please remember that today is quadruple witching and that’ll shape the tape in unforeseen ways. Expiration action typically bookends the bells so watch your pin risk while you’re watching the Madness that is March!

Answers I Really Wanna Know...


Does anyone remember how incredulous the bull case seemed one year ago today?


What will be obvious a year from now? Two years?


If you're feeling overwhelmed, why don't you play this for some very quick perspective?


Will you please click on the link in the bullet above when you have a free four minutes?


Do you think the citizens of Japan thought the worst was over after the first lost decade?


Is anyone else secretly excited for the Petty tour this summer?


Is the Merkel "Red Card" a precursor to European Disunion?



What does it mean when trillions of dollars have flown out of money market funds, which are at levels last seen in 2007?


Where are we in the denial-migration-panic continuum?


Are Google (GOOG) and Toyota (TM) proxies for protectionism?


Will the Apple (AAPL) iPad (and tablets in general) completely change the face of media yet again?


Is the light at the end of the economic tunnel affixed to the front of a train?


Are you keeping an eye out for pin risk today (in stocks trading near strikes with outsized open interest relative to average daily volume)?


Given they lack balance sheet baggage and reputational risk, are you really that surprised to see the superb growth in the boutique brokerage space?


Have a great weekend, Minyans; you’ve most certainly earned it!

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)