CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Mais um belo artigo do PSG.

Vai valendo o BCE para equilibrar isto mas não se sabe até quando.

O artigo está excelente, como sempre.

BBB no país Ah Ah Ah
09 Novembro2010 | 11:23
Pedro Santos Guerreiro

Numa luta de elefantes, quem se trama é a relva.
A frase, que é mais colorida no original brasileiro, mostra como está Portugal perante as agências de "rating": um dano colateral, pisado por gigantes.

A descida do "rating" dos quatro bancos anunciada ontem pela Fitch foi inesperada e brutal. Sobretudo para o BES e BCP, aos quais o "rating" foi cortado em dois "degraus", para BBB, acrescido de "outlook" negativo. É um nível humilhante, que coloca estes bancos à beira da exclusão de grandes investidores mais selectivos.

Tememos quando vemos o sismógrafo das taxas de juro roçar os 7%. Mas há muito que o problema português deixou de ser preço para ser acesso. Portugal e os seus bancos olham para a frente e vêem a parede imaginada por Fernando Ulrich cada vez mais próxima. Pagarão o que for preciso para aceder ao capital. Precisam é de tê-lo. E neste momento há fundos soberanos e investidores institucionais que já nos riscaram do mapa do seu dinheiro.

Como já aqui foi escrito, não estamos como a Irlanda: Portugal não tem um problema com os seus bancos, os seus bancos é que têm um problema com Portugal. O estado da economia portuguesa, frágil e deprimida, agrava as perspectivas dos bancos, que vão fazendo controlo de danos no malparado e aguentando sectores como a construção e o imobiliário para evitar males maiores. Fazer estes cortes de "rating" é como atar bolas de chumbo aos pés de quem tenta nadar.

A Fitch não explica as razões dos seus cortes em cada um dos bancos, dá apenas uma explicação geral e genérica: o corte reflecte "o aumento do risco de financiamento e liquidez" destas instituições, "dada a elevada dependência das fontes de financiamento de curto e médio prazo, bem como o aumento do recurso ao BCE, no contexto de continuadas dificuldades de acesso aos mercados de capitais e deterioração da qualidade dos activos domésticos".

Trocando por miúdos: os mercados vão-se fechando a Portugal e, como nos últimos anos o financiamento foi sendo feito a prazos curtos (um, dois, três anos), em 2011 converge uma necessidade de refinanciamentos dramática. É justo, este corte? Se o é, é parcial: onde estão os mesmos cortes para os bancos espanhóis, em pior situação? O BCP critica, o BES vai mais longe e corta a relação comercial com a Fitch. Uma medida sã mas provavelmente vã, de um banco sem dimensão para iniciar um turbilhão contra as agências de "rating". Estas decisões podem ser injustas, mas permanecem eficazes.

O mundo está um lugar estranho. Os Estados Unidos despejam dólares sobre a economia, com decisões de legalidade duvidosa. A Europa divide-se na hipótese de abrir uma guerra cambial a partir do euro. Enquanto isso, o factor político trai a lucidez tanto em Portugal como na Alemanha, que dramatiza as penalizações futuras a países que peçam socorro, o que acaba por apressar esses pedidos de socorro. E o FMI, quando olha para Portugal, faz cruz-credo à inviabilidade política.

Não é o número 7% dos juros mas a letra B de um "rating" que detonará o pedido de ajuda de Portugal. Se depois da banca vier o corte da República, temos o destino traçado. Entretanto, por cá, os partidos continuam cegos pelo poder que ainda nem sequer têm. O acordo entre o PS e o PSD está por implementar e os políticos das oposições chegam a mostrar risos pela desgraça que confirma os seus avisos. É tétrico. É fútil. É fatal. Ah, ah, ah? BBB!

agora, todos podemos dizer: -ah pois é! estavamos à espera de quê?

mas o que haveríamos de dizer?

escanranchados na dívida até o motor gripar! O que interessa é ir na corrida! O destino, esse, fica lá longe...!

Em declarações à Renascença, o director associado da agência, Douglas Renwick, sublinha que, por enquanto, esse cenário não se coloca. “Existe essa possibilidade, mas não tem necessariamente de ser assim. Damos particular atenção ao impacto no défice orçamental das políticas do Governo, bem como ao desempenho da economia. Nos últimos meses, esses dois factores têm-se revelados mais promissores para nós do que no início do ano. Se a economia regressar a uma recessão no final deste ano ou no próximo, o cenário de um corte no 'rating' torna-se mais provável, mas não tem sido essa a nossa percepção nos últimos meses”.

Douglas renwick em declarações ao jornalista Pedro Mesquita
Por isso, o mesmo responsável considera importante um eventual acordo entre as principais forças políticas em Portugal para aprovar o Orçamento do Estado para o próximo ano e lembra os reflexos positivos do acordo ao nível do Programa de Estabilidade e Crescimento (PEC). “Consideramos que é importante, especialmente porque os socialistas estão a governar em minoria. Estamos de alguma forma confortados pelos acordos que foram alcançados no passado quanto a medidas de emergência e não vemos qualquer razão que impeça um acordo sobre o orçamento do próximo ano. Assumimos que haverá um acordo com a cooperação dos dois maiores partidos”.

http://www.rr.pt/informacao_detalhe.asp ... did=116758

É curioso não se terem pronunciado em relação aos USA, num momento em que os USA dizem que terão um crescimento e recuperação inferior ao esperado!!

Será preciso os states falirem para que lhe sejam baixados os ratings?

No dia 24 de Março saiu esta notícia:

Fitch baixa rating de Portugal

A agência de notação financeira Fitch Ratings reviu a notação da dívida soberana de Portugal no longo prazo, foi anunciado esta quarta-feira pela instituição.

Os analistas da Fitch mantêm as perspectivas de Portugal em vigilância «negativa», baixando o rating (classificação da dívida soberana) para "AA-". A agência já havia avisado sobre uma possível deterioração da classificação.

(notícia completa em http://diariodigital.sapo.pt/dinheiro_d ... ews=134047)

Hoje, menos de 5 meses depois, aparece isto:

Fitch avisa que nova recessão pode valer corte de "rating" a Portugal
19 Agosto 2010 | 13:24
Jornal de Negócios Online - negocios@negocios.pt

A agência de notação financeira Fitch não exclui a hipótese de cortar o "rating" de Portugal se o crescimento económico, nos próximos meses, não corresponder ao esperado, avança a Rádio Renascença.

(notícia completa em http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=439909)

Europe Working To Contain The PIIGS Flu
Alexandra Zendrian and Morgan Brennan , 03.16.10, 08:40 PM EDT
Greece sneezed and other European nations show flu-like symptoms. Upcoming CDS regulation could put the continent back on its feet.



The debt problems in Europe are in the process of being contained. First it was Greece that came dangerously close to default. Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain face issues similar to those of Greece and have since become part of a grouping with the acronym PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) as a result. France's Finance Minister Christine Lagarde applauds Ireland for its strong austerity plan and says countries in the euro zone have banded together to keep the euro strong. The worst seems to be over.

Of Ireland Lagarde said at a recent press conference, "It has decided on a very, very strict, rigorous austerity plan which hardly any country would volunteer to apply. They talk about cutting civil servants, reducing pensions, increasing taxes in the way they have, it's just a very courageous move." She adds that taking such a stance "goes to show how keen we are to keep the team together and to protect our currency, which is a public good for all 16 euro members."


Greece's latest 5 billion euro bond sale helped show that Greece is not likely to default anytime soon. (See "Greece And Its Bad Company"). Greece's five year CDS rate was 294.2, meaning that it costs $294,000 to insure $10 million, as of the market's close on March 15. That is down from its 52 week high of 428.26 on Feb. 4.

As of March 8, Greece is among the top five countries for the widest CDS spreads, with Argentina, Venezuela, Pakistan and Iceland beating it out for that dubious honor. None of the other PIIGS countries were among the top ten countries with the widest CDS spreads.

The European Commission is considering banning certain types of credit default swaps. Lagarde said that she is not passing judgment on CDSs, "but to the extent that CDS are a pro-cyclical element and instrument, I think that it needs to be looked at simply because currencies and financial stability are public goods, and I think that there should be a different treatment applied to that kind of CDS."

A CDS ban might keep the European debt problems from spreading, as CDSs spread debt around, but it could also keep the debt incubated, and these countries might experience more severe downturns as a result.


link: http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/16/spain- ... reece.html

Forex: PIIGS cap Euro, ratings relief
Posted 3/16/2010 12:50 PM ET by from FXstreet.com
FXstreet (London) - Euro survived a potential downswing today when ratings agency Moodys did not downgrade the debt quality of the sufferring sovereign state, despite statements that it could have been downgraded up to two levels. Greece and the rest of the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) all cap any upside for the single currency.

EUR/GBP trades at 0.9057, shedding just five pips since the US open, as optimistic investor continue keeping the risk-markets afloat. Political developments in the UK will a driving force for price action in the pair also, as EU representatives shunned the proposed budget plans as insufficient for a timely remedy to the UKs fiscal problems.


link: http://www.nasdaq.com/newscontent/20100 ... street.com

Portugal announced mass privatisation to fight rising debt
March 17, 2010 - 8:11AM

Portugal announced mass privatisation to fight rising debt
March 17, 2010 - 8:11AM

Portugal, under strong EU pressure to correct its public finances, announced sweeping privatisation measures affecting its airline, rail transport, postal, energy and paper industries, on Tuesday to fight a rise in debt.

Also covered by the crash program are bank and insurance activities.

The privatisation would raise about 6.0 billion euros ($A8.98 billion) by 2013, bringing in 1.2 billion euros ($A1.8 billion) this year and 1.8 billion euros ($A2.69 billion) next year, the government said.

The sales would lead to "increased productivity in these sectors and contribute to the essential reduction of the public debt," which currently amounts to 142.91 billion euros ($A213.78 billion).

The expected contribution from the privatisations to reducing debt amounts to about 4.19 per cent of the total debt.

The measures, being outlined by Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Santos to European Union finance ministers in Brussels on Tuesday, are to be debated by parliament here on March 25 and then submitted to EU authorities.

The urgent program presented on Tuesday resumed privatisations for 2010-2013, which had been suspended in 2007 because of the financial crisis.

The Socialist government intends to sell great chunks of the Portuguese economy.

It will sell its holding of 8.0 per cent in Galp Energias, 25.73 per cent in Energias de Portugal, an 51.08 per cent in electricity distributor REN while retaining a strategic interest.

It also intends to sell its interest of 32.7 per cent in Inapa, the fourth-biggest distributor of paper in Europe.

The privatisation program also covers the entrance of private capital into the shipyards Viana do Castelo and the sale of shares in companies in the industrial and defence sectors, the opening of the capital TAP Portugal airline and the sale of Aeroports du Portugal.

Rail freight transport will also be sold to the private sector, and the postal service CTT will be opened to private capital.

The government said it would re-privatise BPN bank which was taken under state control during the financial crisis, and sell part of the insurance activities of Caixa Geral de Depositos (CGD) bank.

The government raised slightly its estimated debt to 86.0 per cent of output in 2010, from a previous estimate of 85.4 per cent of output this year.

The debt will rise to 89.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2011, 90.7 per cent in 2012 and then turn down to 89.8 per cent in 2013.

These figures are far above ceiling levels for countries in the European Union, and specifically the eurozone as is the case for Portugal.

There is widespread concern that if the debt crisis in Greece, the subject of the EU ministerial meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, is not contained other countries with big deficit and debt problems could come under pressure on financial markets.

EU rules state that a member country must not run a public deficit of more than 3.0 per cent of output, and that debt should not exceed 60 per cent or if it does must fall structurally to below that figure.

Portugal intends to cut its annual public deficit from 8.3 per cent of output this year to 2.8 per cent in 2013. Such a reduction is widely considered to be huge.

Before the financial crisis, several countries already had structural difficulties in switching their public finances into a strong condition, and the cost of supporting economies through the crisis has raised public deficits and debt in many countries to far above the limits.

Data from the national statistics institute published last week showed that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the last quarter of last year from output in the previous quarter.

link: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-bu ... -qd1m.html

The Rain In Spain (And Portugal)
Alexandra Zendrian, 03.16.10, 06:00 PM EDT
The Forbes Investor Team is nervous about the ramifications from the "next Greece." Here are some tips to avoid and even capitalize on concerns about PIIGS.


Forbes:Do you see any potential Greeces on the rise? Some people are saying Spain could be the next Greece. Secondly, what can people do to safeguard their portfolios against the effects of situations like Greece? And thirdly, what kind of effect did Greece have on our markets and people’s portfolios?

John Mauldin (Millennium Wave Securities President): Spain is a problem. Spain has 20% unemployment, and its government deficit is at about 9%. If Spain doesn't get its debt under control, it could tank the euro.


And with regard to Greece, the country needs to be willing to push itself into an extended depression. Otherwise if they don't cut their debt each year, it forces them to have to take it on all at once.

Michael Kitces (Pinnacle Advisory Group Financial Planner): The latest trend seems to call the trouble countries “PIGS”--an acronym for Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain--some call it PIIGS and throw Ireland into the mix as well, although they [Ireland] have actually been more active in implementing austerity measures to address their debt issues. So all of these are on the watch list for the international bond community. Spain seems to be the biggest “next” concern for many, not just because of their somewhat similar and concerning financial circumstances, but also because their economy and direct financial impact would be so much larger than Greece's. Notwithstanding the debates about whether and how to help out Greece, it’s not clear that Europe can afford to help out Spain to the same extent were it to become necessary. This is why the investment-market fears about Greece are not just about Greece; many in the markets will be looking to see how Europe handles Greece as a guidepost for how other troubled-debt countries may be addressed as well. So this isn’t just about the Greek solution; it’s also about the precedent that that solution will set and how the markets--especially the international bond markets--will respond when they extrapolate any precedents out to the other troubled economies.

David Joy (RiverSource Investments Chief Market Strategist): So far, nothing has happened with Greece, other than CDS spreads have widened sharply. They have not yet attempted to tap credit markets, although that is coming soon, apparently. We'll see what the reception is. To the extent that Greece's primary problem is too much debt, then yes, there are plenty of other countries with large and rising debt burdens. But Greece's problem is compounded by a number of other problems, including a lack of credibility after surprising the EU with a threefold upward adjustment in its budget deficit estimate, a resistant workforce that will make austerity difficult to implement, an economy that is expected to contract in 2010, and EU constituents whose enthusiasm for coming to the rescue is lukewarm. The best thing Greece has going for it is the overarching desire of the EU to maintain the union and of the EMU to preserve the euro. Also helping is the exposure of a still fragile European banking system to Greek debt.

Spain has been able to tap the credit market, so they demonstrated their ability to fund, at least for now. But, if the global, and more importantly the European economic recovery should falter, then all of the so-called PIIGS could have problems. At the very least a period of slow growth ahead is assured. But the problem extends beyond just these countries. Debt burdens are forecast to continue rising in the U.K., Japan and the U.S.

These countries are fortunate to have far greater access to funding than do the peripheral countries of Europe. However, they too will need to arrest this trend or a debt crisis is not out of the question. Even in these countries we can expect a period of below-trend growth as years of debt-fueled consumption is paid off.

One of the immediate impacts from the Greece debt problem has been a stronger dollar. This has hurt U.S. investors with overseas positions, but it will help foreign, especially euro-based, exporters, like Germany. The concern over Greece was also a significant contributor to the U.S. equity correction between Jan. 19th and Feb. 8th, receding only after the faint promise of help from the EU.

We should expect the fallout from the financial crisis to take longer to resolve than we would like. These debt problems are a good example. For investors it means having a well-diversified portfolio and one where the values of quality and liquidity are considered alongside risk and reward.

Louis Navellier (Navellier & Associates CEO): Portugal could be the next Greece; Portugal had a bond auction problem a few weeks ago.

Matt Lloyd (Advisors Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist): The Greece situation is a symptom versus a catalyst for the European sovereign debt and economic issue. Greece is only 2% of the Euro zone’s GDP, so its material impact is minimal. The psychological impact is far more important. There has been ample notice of trouble brewing from Ireland’s challenge of the Stability and Growth Pact, to Spain’s not marking real estate to market in their banking system and the exceedingly high budget deficits that the Euro Zone has been running. We have been bearish on the Euro zone for the last six months and see more trouble ahead for them and the eastern European emerging markets.

The issue with Greece and the whole PIIGS [Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain] is that the economic covenant that was agreed upon has had little enforcement and under extreme duress conditions, the underlying circumstances do not hold up. The contagion impact has more to do with psychological in that France owns roughly $80 billion government and financial debt while German owns a little over $40 billion. They have some time as $20 billion come due in the next few months, but the game of chicken is far more revealing of a hypocritical enforcement, impossible challenge of conforming one Central Bank policy and a divisive support for the countries within the union.

In the short term, the Euro will be under pressure. Though the dollar may see a bit of a flight to quality from the Euro and more desire with the expectation of higher rates, there may be a spillover into gold as more and more people don’t particularly care for any currency. We don’t see complete fallout, but rather the underlying economic conditions appear to not be close to stabilizing. We continue to like the United States, Asian emerging markets and the BRIC countrie

Forbes: What effect do you think the Euro being under pressure will have on the markets? What are some possible problems that could arise because of what happened in Greece, and what could happen elsewhere?

Lloyd: The largest potential issue (remote at best) is an implosion in the Euro Zone political (relative) structure. With the budget deficit running at an estimated three times the accepted norm, this will not resolve itself right away. Though to be fair, we have our own long-term challenges which will limit the amount of flight to the dollar that we might normally see. The euro may fall to the 1.20 level and if things do not stabilize economically in the next year or two, the par level would not be out of the question. As much as it pains the “U.S. hegemonic haters”, the dollar's dominance will continue out of necessity versus desire.

Aside from the economic challenges, political turmoil and ECB responsibility limitations, the demographic situation in Europe will also be quite a tailwind. This is a discussion that could be its own topic and is very long in duration so it doesn’t draw the focus it should, but it will have a strong influence on the direction of the political and economic policies.

Ron Roge (R.W. Roge & Company CEO): I agree with Matt and Mike’s thoughts. In addition to being a small percentage of the Euro Zone, Greece has a bigger problem. They have only 10.7 million people. Greece is a very small country with only 10.7 million people to pay down their debt and manage their budget.

Greece represents socialism gone wild. The population expects the government to pay for everything. As soon as the EU recommends freezing salaries and using 20% of Greece’s revenue to pay down the debt, the population employed by the government and municipalities threatens to go on strike.

In the meantime Germany, who manages its budget and balance sheet well, does not want to pay for Grecian greed. So it looks like Germany’s Angela Merkel, the EU’s most powerful influence, will be the person to watch. She may save Europe from itself and perhaps teach the rest of the world how to be financially responsible.

There is also the possibility that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), not the EU, may have to step in to prescribe some bitter medicine for Greece, so that Germany would not be blamed for the pain that needs to be inflected upon Greece. This could help Greece move toward becoming more financially responsible and remain part of the EU.

Greg Ghodsi (Raymond James' 360 Wealth Management Group Head): All of the world's problems are because of too much debt. Debt can be rolled over and over until the market says enough. Country by country will have to make the tough decisions that Ron, Matt and Mike have mentioned. The million dollar question is how do you get elected with the slogan “I am going to cut services and entitlements until they are balanced with revenues” If we do not elect people to balance budgets the market will take care of it for us. Which do you prefer--pain now or pain later?

Forbes: Are there any investments that you would either recommend or say to avoid based on the PIIGS?

Mauldin: If you're invested in European stocks, you should find a way to hedge the euro. One way to do that would be through a short euro exchange-traded fund. It's also not the time to be invested in European bank stocks because if Greece or another country defaults, the banks will take a hit.

Navellier: Investors shouldn't be too concerned if they're holding European stocks now. The companies that are most apt to be hit are firms like telecommunications and cable companies, because their business is more locally based.

Joy: The disinflationary implications of the peripheral European sovereign debt problems suggest sluggish growth in the Euro Zone. It will only be with a lag that a weaker euro will help. Consequently, German government bonds might be relatively attractive, especially compared to the U.S., where we expect interest rates to rise eventually. Versus the euro, dollar-based assets also appear more attractive. The U.S. equity markets are likely to outperform. And it is not just the result of the debt problems. During the crisis the ECB maintained a holier-than-thou attitude of fiscal responsibility while looking down their noses at expansive stimulus programs in the U.S. Those chickens are now coming home to roost in the form of sluggish growth.

Ghodsi: Our group's biggest change recently has been to close all positions in foreign currency ETFs and reduce by a third our foreign stock exposure. We were fully invested Jan. 1st, but have increased cash to 15%. The challenge to all managers is cash is 0%, so we are actively looking for opportunities in dividend-paying companies in the U.S.

link: http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/16/dollar ... reece.html

Tourism no quick fix for Europe’s needy
ESTORIL, Portugal - Tons of debt, but great beaches and warm weather. Can tourism help rescue Europe's financially troubled Mediterranean countries?

The economies of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece all depend heavily on tourism, and for good reason — sea, scenery and warmer weather for decades have lured euro-packing tourists from colder and richer Britain and Germany.

Tourism slumped last year at the height of the global economic crisis, and things are picking up a bit in 2010. But as the four-day Easter holiday April 2-5 approaches, prospects remain muted for a strong lift from the beaches and cafes.


Duarte Nobre Guedes, chief of tourism in the Portuguese seaside resort of Estoril, 25 kilometers (15 miles) west of the Portuguese capital Lisbon, shakes his head when he recalls last year's bleak business environment.

"It was a black year," he admits with a shrug. "We couldn't dodge the world crisis."

Even so, upscale Estoril, which gave a home to some of Europe's exiled 20th-century monarchs and still exudes genteel sophistication, fared better than others. The country's southern Algarve coastline, for example, recorded its worst summer tourist trade in 15 years.

Nobre Guedes said Tuesday the outlook is now "a lot more favorable" for what he terms one of Portugal's "vital" economic sectors.

But it turns out there's no quick fix, no matter how many islands or volcanic beaches they've got, for a couple of reasons.

For a start, the main countries sending them tourists, such as the United Kingdom, are enduring their own economic hardships. Leisure travel is a luxury that can be cut, prompting some to opt for a "staycation" — a stay-at-home holiday with occasional day trips.

Using the euro means these countries can't devalue their currency and become cheap destinations, and not only that, the British pound has fallen. So that mojito in a Greek island bar or a night in a beachfront hotel room could cost British tourists as much or even more than it did last year, as their own economy barely crawls out of recession and unemployment remains high.

Businesses and tourism officials in Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy are hoping an improvement in visitor numbers can provide a tonic.

"(Tourism) is viewed by the government as one of the main strategic planks of the country's sustainable economic development," Portugal's tourism minister Jose Vieira da Silva said.

But, forecasts suggest, tourists are unlikely to deliver a quick fix for national economic woes until the global recovery picks up speed.

"There is growth and it will be a help for them, but it is just one part of what needs to be a broader recovery," said David Goodger, senior economist at Tourism Economics.

Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are in the world's top 20 holiday destinations. Together they draw around 130 million tourists each year — roughly the same as the sum of their own populations.

They are also, however, countries that have alarmed their European Union partners and financial markets by sliding deep into the red. Their heavy debts spawned a financial crisis and compelled them to enact emergency austerity measures, including tax hikes and pay freezes, which are hurting households and making politicians unpopular.

And the only way they can pay off those debts, long term, is more economic growth. But Greece's economy is forecast to shrink by at least a further 0.8 percent this year after contracting 2 percent last year. Spain is expected to post slender growth of 0.3 percent in 2010 after a 3.6 percent contraction, while Portugal estimates its economy contracted 2.7 percent last year but will grow 0.7 percent this year.

Europe is the world's most popular place for vacations. That has made the tourism sector one of the continent's top three service industries, accounting for about 11 percent of the bloc's gross domestic product when associated sectors are taken into account. Looking after holidaymakers provides work for some 24 million people.

As the wider European upturn gathers momentum, the tourism-slanted economies of southern Europe will benefit from a knock-on effect, according to Goodger.

"Tourism is going to be part of the story," Goodger said, particularly in Greece where other economic activity remains weak.

Europe was, along with the Middle East, the worst-hit tourism region in the world in 2009. Arrivals in its Mediterranean basin countries were down 5 percent, according to the U.N. World Tourism Organization.

The WTO predicts a "modest" upswing in Europe this year, though the rise may only be around 1 percent in terms of visitor numbers.

The southern European nations are encountering difficulties as they try to get some traction in the current economic mire.

In the 12 months to January, the number of British travelers to mainland Europe dropped 16 percent, according to the Association of British Travel Agents. British visitors to Portugal, where tourism generates 10 percent of economic output and jobs, plunged more than 21 percent last year.

Britons looking to travel abroad are fishing for the cheapest deal, which may not be in Europe where the fall in tourists from the U.K. could reach double digits, ABTA spokesman Sean Tipton says.

"I can tell you very quickly that everything to do with Europe, subtract 10 percent, and for Egypt and Turkey, add 25 percent," Tipton said.

And though the tourist industry brings in fresh cash, many of the jobs it creates are low-wage and seasonal.

Magda Antonioli, a tourism economist at Milan's Bocconi University, says governments need to diversify out of sun-and-sand summer vacations and quarry neglected areas.

"There needs to be more investment in the low season, which could bring notable growth," Antonioli said.


Tourism is Spain's prime industry, accounting for 11 percent of GDP and more than 8 percent of its total workforce. But arrival numbers plunged by almost 9 percent to 52.5 million there in 2009 because of the crisis, deepening the sense of national malaise. Revenue was down by 6.8 percent to €48 billion ($65.7 billion).

Tourism department chief Joan Mesquida says Spain expects arrivals to improve in 2010 but concedes it will be "a transitional year" on the country's path out of crisis.

Locals in downtown Madrid say tourists are for the moment keeping their hands in their pockets.

"People only come to look these days, they don't buy like before," said Jose Luis Gonzalez, who owns two souvenir shops in the city's elegant Plaza Mayor square. "Maybe a fridge magnet, a key ring but not T-shirts or more expensive products."


link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35896268/ns ... tinations/

O mercado efectivamente acalmou esta semana nas obrigações. No entanto, continuamos com yields muito boas na dívida grega - obviamente para quem não acreditar que a Grécia pode incumprir.

Bunds Fall After Sale of Two-Year Notes, Portuguese Auction
March 10, 2010, 12:09 PM EST

By Anna Rascouet

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- German bonds declined after the nation sold 5 billion euros of two-year notes and Portugal’s larger-than-planned securities auction helped reduce the appeal of the safest debt.

The declines drove the yield on the two-year note up for the first day in three. The yield premium investors demand to hold Portugal’s 10-year bond over bunds fell 7 basis points after the nation auctioned 990 million euros ($1.3 billion) of 3.85 percent bonds due in 2021, more than the 750 million euros targeted. Fitch Ratings said yesterday it may cut its AA grade if Portugal’s “pedestrian” budget reforms aren’t extended.

“There’s an unwinding of safe-haven trades,” said David Schnautz, a fixed-income strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “We expect stronger underperformance of bunds.”

The yield on the two-year note rose 3 basis points to 1.01 percent as of 4:20 p.m. in London. The 1 percent security due March 2012 slipped 0.06, or 60 euro cents per 1,000-euro face amount, to 99.98. The yield on the 10-year bund rose 2 basis points to 3.16 percent.

The Bundesbank retained 16 percent of the two-year notes on offer, compared with 10 percent last time. Germany also sold 982 million euros in additional 1.75 percent 10-year inflation- protected bonds at an average yield of 1.3 percent, according to Germany’s central bank.

‘Completely Over’

The bund yield has fallen 23 basis points in 2010 as investors moved into what they consider the safest debt when they become concerned countries such as Greece and Portugal were struggling to narrow their budget deficits.

The spread between the German security and the Greek 10- year bond narrowed 3 basis points to 310 basis points today after former European Commission President Romano Prodi said the worst of Greece’s financial crisis is past and other European nations won’t follow in its path.

“For Greece, the problem is completely over,” Prodi, who was also Italian prime minister, said in an interview in Shanghai. “I don’t see any other case now in Europe. I don’t think there is any reason to think the euro system will collapse or will suffer greatly because of Greece.”

The country last week outlined measures to save 4.8 billion euros, including higher fuel, tobacco and sales taxes, as part of its plan to reassure investors.

The yield on the new Greek 10-year benchmark due June 2020 fell 4 basis points to 6.27 percent today. The two-year note yield fell 16 basis points to 4.82 percent.

‘More Substance’

Portugal’s government two days ago announced plans to sell 6 billion euros of assets and raise civil servants’ wages less than inflation through 2013.

“We’re waiting to see whether they put a bit more substance into it,” Fitch analyst Paul Rawkins said yesterday in an interview in London.

The Portuguese 10-year bond yield fell 3 basis points to 4.03 percent after the nation paid less to borrow at today’s auction. The average yield was 4.171 percent, compared with 4.82 percent at a similar sale a month ago.

“Despite Fitch’s comments yesterday, the Portuguese government felt comfortable enough to sell more than their indicated amount,” Schnautz said. “It’s a positive sign for peripherals.”

Fitch has had a negative outlook on Portugal’s rating since September. Standard & Poor’s cut Portugal’s grade to A+ in January 2009 while Moody’s Investors Service has an Aa2 rating on the country’s debt.

Fortis Losses

Greek bonds have lost 0.91 percent so far this year, according to Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes. That compares with a 0.67 percent advance for Portuguese debt, a 1.52 percent increase for Spanish securities and a 2.28 percent gain for German bonds, the indexes show.

The Belgian bank Fortis today said it lost 16 million euros when it sold 850 million euros of Greek government bonds in the last quarter.

France will sell 5 billion euros of bonds due 2060 and will price the issue to yield 2 basis points more than its existing 2055 debt, according to a banker close to the deal.

Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas SA, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Societe Generale SA will manage the issue, Philippe Mills, chief executive officer of Agence France Tresor in Paris, said yesterday.

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ering.html

Crustas, por favor continua a colocar estas noticias, que são bem interessantes e fundamentais.

Portugal's Economy Contracts As Stimulus Is Withdrawn
MARCH 11, 2010, 10:22 A.M. ET

LISBON — Portugal's economy contracted again in the fourth quarter after a couple quarters of expansion, just as the government pulls back on economic stimulus spending in an attempt to rein in a towering budget deficit.

Portugal's double-dip recession will concern investors, who see the country as the most likely euro-zone member to face a Greek-style debt crisis, although its public sector debt is smaller and it needs to borrow much less this year.

Gross domestic product shrank 0.2% in the fourth quarter from the third, the National Statistics Institute, or INE, said Thursday, after an expansion of 0.7% in the third quarter.

"With the economy at least temporarily back in recession, credit rating agencies warning of future downgrades and some 12% of outstanding public debt set to mature by the summer, market confidence in Portugal looks set to remain fairly fragile," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

Fitch Ratings said Tuesday the government's gradual approach to reducing its budget deficit is a "concern," and failure to meet its deficit reduction targets could lead to a downgrade.

Portugal's government, which has forecast growth of 0.7% for this year, has frozen public workers' salaries, reduced public works and slowed economic stimulus to help reduce the budget deficit from 9.3% of GDP last year to 8.3% of GDP in 2010.

"The economy needs more help to start growing, and that will be more difficult because of the need to reduce the budget deficit," said Paula Carvalho, an economist at Banco BPI in Lisbon.

On an annual basis, GDP declined 1% in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, compared to an annual contraction of 2.5% in the third quarter. For the full year 2009, GDP contracted 2.7%.

Concern in international financial markets about the large deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal has pushed the yields on their debt higher. The economies in those countries are also contracting, Greece's by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, and Spain's by 0.1%.

Recessions in Portugal's biggest trading partners last year caused exports to plunge, while rising unemployment and businesses' lack of confidence in the economy hurt spending at home.

Now that many economies in Europe have started to recover, the outlook for Portugal's export-dependent economic recovery is also improving.

Exports declined 1.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after dropping 9.8% in the third quarter, while imports fell 1.5% in the fourth quarter following a 7% decline in the third quarter. Internal demand shrank 1.1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after falling 2% in the third.

link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... theadlines

Pois. Era de esperar alguma reacção ao PEC.

By Paul Dobson and Matthew Brown

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Portugal’s AA credit rating may be lowered if the nation fails to take further action to shore up its finances after introducing “pedestrian” budget reforms, Fitch Ratings said.

“It’s quite a finely balanced one,” Paul Rawkins, a senior director at Fitch, said today in an interview in London. “We’re waiting to see whether they put a bit more substance into it. The initial impression from Portugal was it was rather pedestrian.”

Portugal’s government yesterday announced plans to sell 6 billion euros ($8.2 billion) of assets and raise civil servants’ wages less than inflation through 2013 as part of measures designed to convince investors it can trim its budget deficit and reduce debt. The Iberian nation has a deficit of 9.3 percent of gross domestic product, more than three times the European Union limit.

Fitch has had a negative outlook on Portugal’s rating since September. Standard & Poor’s cut Portugal’s grade to A+ in January 2009 while Moody’s Investors Service has an Aa2 rating on the country’s debt. Greece’s credit rating was cut by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch in December amid concern it would struggle to narrow the EU’s largest budget deficit.

Portugal plans to sell 750 million euros of 2021 bonds tomorrow. The yield premium investors demand to hold Portuguese 10-year bonds over German debt widened 4 basis points to 93 basis points today. It reached 163 basis points on Feb. 8, the most since March 2009.

Link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... p6mVJC0Neg