"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[artista_]

Artigo muito interessante.

Sem dúvida... mesmo para quem, como eu, tem andado um bocado "out"! Simples e objectivo!

abraços

artista

[dvck]

Artigo muito interessante.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Sitting Just Outside the Bear Cave"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/26/2010 8:00 AM EST


"By my count we've now had three of these big comeback days. The first was when the Chinese hiked their reserve requirements two Fridays ago. The second was when our Federal Reserve hiked the discount rate last week. And then Thursday we had those poor jobless claims.

Each time we open down big and manage a comeback. And each time there hasn't been much follow-through to the upside. In the case of the Chinese rate hike we did have follow-through for a day or so but then we managed to give it all back. In the case of the Fed hike, we simply gave it all back and more.

So is it any wonder why after being disappointed twice before investors decided not to embrace the late-day rally? Oh yes, anecdotally folks feel better (and they should since we are working off that overbought reading). But the equity put/call ratio chimed in at a very high reading of 81%. So let's look back at the last four times we had such a high reading.

Point A on the chart is a reading of 84%. Point B, 80%; point C, 78%; and point D, 79%.


The first thing you might notice is that at three out of four points it was very worth it to buy; point C was a bit iffy. Now let's look at the oscillator and see how that looked at those specific points in time. Once again you can see the deep oversold readings at points A, B and D, but point C was sorta, kinda not really terribly oversold.

Clearly you can see from this chart that we aren't even sorta, kinda oversold. We are still very much overbought. A down day Friday would go a long way toward getting that oscillator down.


Contrary to popular belief, the final day of the month is often down; not always, but often. But as best I can tell the last 10 out of 12 months have been red on their final days. And I see one day the S&P 500 was up by pennies. So I am hopeful we get a down day Friday.

Once again I can list all the negatives out there. And yes, there are still plenty of them, beginning with the fact that upside/downside volume on Nasdaq Thursday was pretty negative at almost 2-to-1 on the downside. But I continue to see this negative sentiment every time we go down which is why I have not been bearish for nearly a month now.

Since we all know I tend to err on the side of the glass half-full anyway, I am used to being asked what it would take to turn me bullish. Lately I find myself being asked what it would take to turn me bearish which is an unusual spot for me to be in.

But for those of you interested, I would need to see sentiment shift. I would need to see some of the indicators I follow roll over. If we get a rally in early March and we see a sentiment shift and some of the indicators roll over I will likely crawl back into my bear cave, but for now I'm still outside with one eye on the inside. "

(in www.realmoney.com)