Cramer: "What a Dumb Market"
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É um tipo que dedica os seus últimos 30 anos ao mercado, minuto a minuto, pelo que tem uma dose acumulada de experiência e saber enorme. Além disso, é muit ointeligente, apesar de demasiado espalhafatoso.
Falha muitas vezes, como falham todos aqueles que se expõem como ele o faz. Mas gosto dos seus raciocínios e, apesar de discordar dele muitas vezes, lê-lo faz-me sempre ver outro lado das coisas.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
Falha muitas vezes, como falham todos aqueles que se expõem como ele o faz. Mas gosto dos seus raciocínios e, apesar de discordar dele muitas vezes, lê-lo faz-me sempre ver outro lado das coisas.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
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De facto não consegui expressar o meu pedido de forma eficaz.
Basicamente seria uma espécie de " perfil psicológico" do Cramer feito por si.
O meu objectivo é conseguir analisar melhor as suas palavras, saber se é entretenimento, se é análise pura, se é génio puro, se é uma personagem, ou se é só mais uma opinião.
Abraço
De facto não consegui expressar o meu pedido de forma eficaz.
Basicamente seria uma espécie de " perfil psicológico" do Cramer feito por si.
O meu objectivo é conseguir analisar melhor as suas palavras, saber se é entretenimento, se é análise pura, se é génio puro, se é uma personagem, ou se é só mais uma opinião.
Abraço
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Ulisses,se me permite, gostava de conhecer melhor a maneira como interpreta os comentários do Cramer, ou seja eu gostaria de perceber melhor a análise inteligível dele.
Eu não quero decifrar mensagens subliminares só quero entender melhor o funcionamento do raciocínio do Cramer.
Um abraço
Ulisses,se me permite, gostava de conhecer melhor a maneira como interpreta os comentários do Cramer, ou seja eu gostaria de perceber melhor a análise inteligível dele.
Eu não quero decifrar mensagens subliminares só quero entender melhor o funcionamento do raciocínio do Cramer.
Um abraço
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- Mensagens: 510
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Cramer: "What a Dumb Market"
"What a Dumb Market"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/23/2010 9:05 AM EST
"We're seeing the micro earnings data vs. the macro oil/gold/dollar complex play out today with the stunning number and dividend boost from Home Depot (HD - commentary - Trade Now) as well as the excellent numbers from Office Depot (ODP - commentary - Trade Now) -- that's a couple of good Depots -- as well as the fine Sears (SHLD - commentary - Trade Now) numbers -- numbers that will be disputed, but that's silly given that Kmart had up comps -- and a better-than-in-line Medtronic (MDT - commentary - Trade Now).
I figure it doesn't matter, because once again oil hit a wall at $80 and the process is always the same: The market sells off as oil goes from $80 to $70, and then the market rallies as oil goes from $70 to $80. If you shorted stocks, regardless of the fundamentals, at $80 and bought them, regardless of the fundamentals, at $70, you did better than everyone else. If you shorted oil stocks the whole way, up or down, you did fabulously -- they never rally as much as the futures and go down harder than the futures.
It's a predictable dance that will remain predictable until people start taking action.
We are in a dumb market and everyone knows it. We see it with tech, where the reports are excellent but the commentary stays subdued because the analysts seem to intuit that the fundamentals don't matter. We see it in the banks, which trade erratically as business improves, but the housing bears just dominate the airwaves no matter what and the president piles on nicely. (How do you like this guy, digging in his heels on health care? You have to admit that he is a disaster for business, and it has to be deliberately -- who else would continue to talk about jobs but focus on what seems only to be health care? He's the health care president and nothing else.)
Stocks just all trade with the complex, so there is no enthusiasm for a story unless it is totally exceptional and trounces guidance. Even then, you just buy it because it isn't up enough if oil is going from $80 to $70.
At my old hedge fund I would simply be binary. I would think nothing of selling my whole portfolio at $80 and going short then covering as oil pierced $74 and actually starting to build longs from $72 to $70. I would leave room if it magically went below that number to buy on margin, but the pattern is so predictable and the oil buyers so universal that I probably should use margin.
I told you it was a dumb market. Looks really dumb today.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Home Depot. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/23/2010 9:05 AM EST
"We're seeing the micro earnings data vs. the macro oil/gold/dollar complex play out today with the stunning number and dividend boost from Home Depot (HD - commentary - Trade Now) as well as the excellent numbers from Office Depot (ODP - commentary - Trade Now) -- that's a couple of good Depots -- as well as the fine Sears (SHLD - commentary - Trade Now) numbers -- numbers that will be disputed, but that's silly given that Kmart had up comps -- and a better-than-in-line Medtronic (MDT - commentary - Trade Now).
I figure it doesn't matter, because once again oil hit a wall at $80 and the process is always the same: The market sells off as oil goes from $80 to $70, and then the market rallies as oil goes from $70 to $80. If you shorted stocks, regardless of the fundamentals, at $80 and bought them, regardless of the fundamentals, at $70, you did better than everyone else. If you shorted oil stocks the whole way, up or down, you did fabulously -- they never rally as much as the futures and go down harder than the futures.
It's a predictable dance that will remain predictable until people start taking action.
We are in a dumb market and everyone knows it. We see it with tech, where the reports are excellent but the commentary stays subdued because the analysts seem to intuit that the fundamentals don't matter. We see it in the banks, which trade erratically as business improves, but the housing bears just dominate the airwaves no matter what and the president piles on nicely. (How do you like this guy, digging in his heels on health care? You have to admit that he is a disaster for business, and it has to be deliberately -- who else would continue to talk about jobs but focus on what seems only to be health care? He's the health care president and nothing else.)
Stocks just all trade with the complex, so there is no enthusiasm for a story unless it is totally exceptional and trounces guidance. Even then, you just buy it because it isn't up enough if oil is going from $80 to $70.
At my old hedge fund I would simply be binary. I would think nothing of selling my whole portfolio at $80 and going short then covering as oil pierced $74 and actually starting to build longs from $72 to $70. I would leave room if it magically went below that number to buy on margin, but the pattern is so predictable and the oil buyers so universal that I probably should use margin.
I told you it was a dumb market. Looks really dumb today.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Home Depot. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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