"Greek Troubles Hit Us While We're Weak"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
1/28/2010 12:59 PM EST
"It's Greek to me! That's how I feel after discovering the Greek bond market and then discovering how it is panicking people out of all sorts of financial assets and having people think along the lines of Van Morrison, as in "Domino," as in "Spain and Portugal are the next to fall."
Thirteen years ago I ignored the problems of some Asian countries, dismissed them as hopeless abstractions and was not the least bit concerned that they could affect our economy. I had just lived through a Mexican collapse that had affected the banks and didn't think that much of it, although it hurt my small savings and loans. Six years before that, I had traded through a Latin crisis that was solved by deft handling of the Bush administration, Bush I, and lived to tell about it.
So I ignored a Thai devaluation. Next thing I know, Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now) was getting killed because of the Asian contagion, Cisco being the shorthand for the hottest tech company in the land.
Now we are faced with some sort of Greek collapse. I say "some sort" because the government is denying it, and the people who are worried about it are macro guys. It hasn't translated to stocks yet.
In a stronger moment, it would be a sideshow. In today's moment it seems to be a catalyst, one more reason to sell. It's not just that we are more connected than ever and we need to start thinking of selling Banco Santander (STD - commentary - Trade Now) if Spain is next. Painful. I like that stock. It's that when something like Greece, which unlike Southeast Asia is not a driver of economic growth, hurts the stock market, that means the stock market is weaker than you think.
Also, we are running out of days in January, and a lot of "so goes January" chatter is about to be unleashed. I don't think we can make up the 3% we are down now at this pace.
So, we have still one more reason to sell, even as Greece is swearing up and down that it won't default. Not like you would say you will until you do.
One other thought. You could crack open the books on Greece: How big is it? Bigger than Dubai, which we weathered? How much debt? Who owns it? How much debt per GDP? Who can bail it out?
Heck, you can go to the Parthenon for all I care. What matters is that people are selling on it. They aren't even asking questions or doing homework. They are selling.
They have found another excuse. That's not Greek to me. "
(in
www.realmoney.com)