Enviado: 7/1/2010 17:07Que tal o meu tema no meu blog,faz sentido?
The U.S. Economy Is Bad, but the 1980’s Were Worse 6 minutes ago Some of the other key differences between the U.S. today and the early 1980s are:
Prime Rate
1981: 20.5%
2009: 3.25% (Current)
Inflation
1980: 14.8%
2008: 0% (December)
Unemployment Rate
1982: 10.8%
2008: 7.2% (December)
30-Year Mortgage Rate
1981: 18.5%
2009: 4.96% (Current)
Real Gas Price (2008 dollars)
1981: $3.45 per gallon
2009: $1.82
Is comparison, reason if not all economic parameters are covered throughout the contemplated periods?
As a sample
Total US debt rose from 163 % of GDP in 1980 to 370 % in 2009.
Whereas for the 10 years yields and Fed fund yield:
The fed funds rate reached 20%. The fed funds rate was volatile during the period starting at 12% reaching 20% and then finishing the 19 week period at 16%. The 10 year yield rose 9.2% over the period, but did fall in the week following the inversion by almost 5%. The chock was harsh and the US economy could sustain it.
The two periods are so different as to deny comparison.
The 1980-82 recession was the Volker recession caused by his significant contraction of the money supply just as the economy was beginning to recover from the Great Inflation of the 1970s. This was no bubble driven decline but a monetary driven decline.
The current recession is more kin to an Austrian boom-bust cycle where the FED allowed the money supply to expand at the same time congress was giving special treatment to real estate channeling the excess money into loans. This was a government created malinvestment that finally burst leaving destroyed capital that Keynesians point to as underconsumption. I guess you could say there was Keynesian underconsumption in Dresden after the firebombing.
I decided to put my money where my mouth is and calculate percentage-output gap-years. data for real GDP comes from the BEA of course. Data for potential real GDP comes from the CBO. The major problem is of course that the BEA has recently considerably revised recent GDP figures but the CBO has yet to follow up.
The 1980-1982 recessions fell into an output gap in the first quarter of 1980 and stayed there through the third quarter of 1987. The peak in output gap occured in the fourth quarter of 1982 and was 7.4% (a post WW II record). The total output gap was approximately 18.2% of potential annual GDP (also, by far, a record).
If one assumes that GDP equaled potential GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007 and then assumes growth in potential GDP similar to previous CBO projections from that point on one finds the following. The output gap in the second quarter reached 7.3%, or just a tenth of percent less severe so far. The total output gap so far is approximately 5.6% of annual GDP. Thus it ranks in fourth place after the 1980-1982 recessions, the 1990-1991 recession (7.9%) and the 1974-1975 recession (7.4%) in that order (so far). (Interestingly although the 1990-1991 recession was not sharp, due to the slowness of the recovery it ranks second by this measure.)
Since it we are only six quarters into this recession it might be a better comparison to look at the other recessions at that point. Six quarters into the 1980-1982 recession we had a total output gap of only 2.5% of annual potential GDP. The worst (other than the current recession) was actually the 1974-1975 recession at 4.8% of potential annual GDP. The second worst was the 1990-1991 recession at 3.8% of potential annual GDP. Six quarters in, this is the worst post WW II recession, by the percent-output-gap-years measure.
http://portuguese.weebly.com/2/post/201 ... worse.html
fiz este trabalho tipo aluno das novas oportunidades
cola aqui cola ali lá se faz o trabalho.
Eu sou péssimo em línguas.
The U.S. Economy Is Bad, but the 1980’s Were Worse 6 minutes ago Some of the other key differences between the U.S. today and the early 1980s are:
Prime Rate
1981: 20.5%
2009: 3.25% (Current)
Inflation
1980: 14.8%
2008: 0% (December)
Unemployment Rate
1982: 10.8%
2008: 7.2% (December)
30-Year Mortgage Rate
1981: 18.5%
2009: 4.96% (Current)
Real Gas Price (2008 dollars)
1981: $3.45 per gallon
2009: $1.82
Is comparison, reason if not all economic parameters are covered throughout the contemplated periods?
As a sample
Total US debt rose from 163 % of GDP in 1980 to 370 % in 2009.
Whereas for the 10 years yields and Fed fund yield:
The fed funds rate reached 20%. The fed funds rate was volatile during the period starting at 12% reaching 20% and then finishing the 19 week period at 16%. The 10 year yield rose 9.2% over the period, but did fall in the week following the inversion by almost 5%. The chock was harsh and the US economy could sustain it.
The two periods are so different as to deny comparison.
The 1980-82 recession was the Volker recession caused by his significant contraction of the money supply just as the economy was beginning to recover from the Great Inflation of the 1970s. This was no bubble driven decline but a monetary driven decline.
The current recession is more kin to an Austrian boom-bust cycle where the FED allowed the money supply to expand at the same time congress was giving special treatment to real estate channeling the excess money into loans. This was a government created malinvestment that finally burst leaving destroyed capital that Keynesians point to as underconsumption. I guess you could say there was Keynesian underconsumption in Dresden after the firebombing.
I decided to put my money where my mouth is and calculate percentage-output gap-years. data for real GDP comes from the BEA of course. Data for potential real GDP comes from the CBO. The major problem is of course that the BEA has recently considerably revised recent GDP figures but the CBO has yet to follow up.
The 1980-1982 recessions fell into an output gap in the first quarter of 1980 and stayed there through the third quarter of 1987. The peak in output gap occured in the fourth quarter of 1982 and was 7.4% (a post WW II record). The total output gap was approximately 18.2% of potential annual GDP (also, by far, a record).
If one assumes that GDP equaled potential GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007 and then assumes growth in potential GDP similar to previous CBO projections from that point on one finds the following. The output gap in the second quarter reached 7.3%, or just a tenth of percent less severe so far. The total output gap so far is approximately 5.6% of annual GDP. Thus it ranks in fourth place after the 1980-1982 recessions, the 1990-1991 recession (7.9%) and the 1974-1975 recession (7.4%) in that order (so far). (Interestingly although the 1990-1991 recession was not sharp, due to the slowness of the recovery it ranks second by this measure.)
Since it we are only six quarters into this recession it might be a better comparison to look at the other recessions at that point. Six quarters into the 1980-1982 recession we had a total output gap of only 2.5% of annual potential GDP. The worst (other than the current recession) was actually the 1974-1975 recession at 4.8% of potential annual GDP. The second worst was the 1990-1991 recession at 3.8% of potential annual GDP. Six quarters in, this is the worst post WW II recession, by the percent-output-gap-years measure.
http://portuguese.weebly.com/2/post/201 ... worse.html
fiz este trabalho tipo aluno das novas oportunidades
cola aqui cola ali lá se faz o trabalho.
Eu sou péssimo em línguas.
Não foi a minha!