CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

nunofaustino Escreveu:O problema é que a CHina tb é a fábrica do mundo e a crise económica vai provocar milhões de desempregados na China...

Um abr
Nuno

concordo...
sem consumo nao á produçao... e a china pode entrar numa crise de proporçoes inimaginaveis...

para mim, e já o escrevi várias vezes, pode estar aqui neste país , assim como na india o big problem, desta crise económica...

O problema é que a CHina tb é a fábrica do mundo e a crise económica vai provocar milhões de desempregados na China...

Um abr
Nuno

Infelizmente, isso não vai resultar.

Não há "decoupling"... estamos todos a passar pelo mesmo.
Temo que as dificuldades de crédito sejam transversais a todos os mercados de todas as regiões do mundo.
E se considerarmos as necessidades de financiamento (novas emissões de dívida) público, somando todos os países deste Planeta, acredito que não deve sobrar muito para a iniciativa privada e para o consumo.
Nesse caso, tudo depende do Estado, o que é mais um paliativo contra a crise e não uma estratégia de longo prazo.
E se é verdade que a China tem grandes reservas monetárias, isso não quer dizer que possa fazer um plano anti-crise espantoso. Quanto muito pode melhorar infraestruturas e algumas condições sociais, mas tal não substitui uma Economia alavancada pelas exportações para parceiros comerciais pouco competitivos e encharcados em crédito barato e fácil.

Abraço

dj

Decoupling still lives

"China Is Driving the Action on Your Screen"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
2/6/2009 10:41 AM EST



"Big bad event passed? Things not as bad as we think? To me, we are seeing everyone in the world betting that Obama will totally have it right but more important that China already has it right. China is the driver of your screen. That market roared last night, and everything that I am hearing out of China is that it is putting its budget to work fast and putting more money into government workers' pockets right now through generous raises. Remember, lots of people work for the government in a communist society.




I made the judgment last night that it isn't U.S. pork driving this economy, it is moo shu pork, meaning that China is really taking us somewhere.

Agriculture is China: Demand is rocking, helped by Bunge's (BG - commentary - Cramer's Take) forecast and a drought in Argentina that is taking out supply. China, though, needs more food. Minerals are China: Look at the Bulk Freight Index. Steels are China: power plants and rails. These are all obvious to people, because there is nothing in the stimulus bill that will move the needle for these. But China can help clean up inventory that has been laying on everything.

Machinery is China: not us. I don't see a single Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) order coming from this stimulus plan. Not one. There is enough in the pipe now to meet that demand. But not the demand from China. Watch this stock. It had the worst chart in the world, and every short has been leaning on it, but now the chart is changing.

Same with the rails. They will be able to maintain their rates if China demand kicks in. They have come down too much, and the hedge funds are done, so let's move to the buy side off of China.


Tech is China: John Chambers from Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) says that China could turn first and take us higher. Didn't anyone listen to that call? Or did they just look at the headline number? Tech is also the new-old leaders: Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take) (remember, that was a great quarter), Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Cramer's Take) (remember, that was a great quarter), Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) (remember, that was a great quarter) and Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) (remember, that was a great quarter).

I don't mean to be facetious, but we are getting a big delayed reaction to some companies that have products that the consumer wants, even in this environment, with these layoffs.

I am not buying into the "banks are fine" plan. I am buying into the "cover Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take)" trade, because if Geithner does anything that is not confiscation, the short-sellers are going to have to cover then, and not now. Instead, they can short the stocks after the rally. Seems like a good idea.

Why does it matter?

Because if China is for real, we cannot be for real, and we can buy after the disappointment of next week.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. "

(in www.realmoney.com)