APB acusa Concorrência de lançar consulta enviesada e com "resultados predeterminados"

[LTCM]

If history is any guide, given that the U.S. recession began in early 2008, then on average the recession will end in late 2009/early 2010. Reinhart & Rogoff showed that equity prices had an average decline of 55% and the S&P 500 has neared that mark on a peak to trough basis.

This environment suggests that equity markets are in a bottoming, base-building process. We should be prepared for a test or even small breakdown from the lows seen late last year, but the downside is limited. If the average recession ends in late 2009/early 2010, then the timing of the final bottom should occur sometime in 2Q or 3Q 2009.

This analysis seems right to me at a gut level. Equity valuations are relatively attractive. Long term sentiment is washed out. The sentiment level is similar to the first half of 1982, when every day the market saw another piece of bad economic news and the market seemed to suffer the Chinese water torture treatment of declining daily, until no one wanted to hear about the stock market.

Under these circumstances, investors with long-term horizons could start raising their equity allocations now, on a dollar-average basis. Traders have to be mentally prepared for the grind ahead and the opportunities that come with the final bottom this year.

[url]humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/[/url]