CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Pois, talvez.

Ao ver ontem à noite os dados referentes aos detentores de "treasury securities", fiquei surpreendido por ver que a China ultrapassou, pela primeira vez, o Japão no fim do mês de Setembro de 2008. E a análise aos dados mais recentes disponibilizados pelo Tesouro norte-americano revelam realidades distintas e surpreendentes. Se o Japão e a Alemanha, por exemplo, mantiveram estável a sua exposição com diversos países a duplicarem o montante aplicado (Reino Unido, Caraíbas, Noruega, Irlanda, por ex) e a Rússia a triplicar, a China foi a que aumentou significativamente a sua exposição destacando-se largamente do Japão (2º maior detentor).

Segundo os dados divulgados pelo Tesouro norte-americano, a China detinha 652 mil milhões de USD em treasuries (Japão 585). Há cerca de 1 mês, o governo chinês anunciou publicamente, na China, que tinha uma exposição de 500 mil milhões, segundo me disse um CFO chinês com quem estive há 3 semanas atrás. Disse-me igualmente que a China tinha feito compras gigantescas de petróleo, acima de $100, completamente desastrosas.

Finalmente, se a China vai "salvar" (ou não) o mundo não sei mas o que vi na que é considerada a Hong-Kong do nordeste chinês é preocupante. Centenas de edifícios de 20 a 50 andares por acabar, gruas montadas, uns mais ou menos adiantados, e ninguém a trabalhar. Nas reuniões que tive com responsáveis de um grupo, há preocupação com a situação actual e referiram diversas intervenções já realizadas pelas autoridades para "segurar" algumas empresas que consideram importantes. Mais virá a caminho. Quando lhes referi a notícia do "package" governamental chinês, sorriram e disseram que era preciso dizer qualquer coisa mesmo que não viesse a realizar-se. A terminar, referência ao que li num diário chinês (em inglês), o qual referia terem encerrado em 2008 cerca de 670.000 empresas devido, sobretudo, à quebra das encomendas do exterior.

A ver vamos, mas será interessante acompanhar a evolução dos acontecimentos.

Um abraço,
MozHawk

"In 2009, It All Comes Down to China"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
1/6/2009 7:21 AM EST

"So 2009 starts with excruciating decisions right out of the box. We are more overbought than we have been in ages, yet we have tons of bears waiting to be converted. We haven't seen an ounce of good news, but you can't keep the cyclical down -- particularly the oils, but also the infrastructure plays. The techs want to rally -- witness the Nasdaq futures up to their old tricks -- but other than an allegedly clean bill of health from Steve Jobs at Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), some decent gallop from Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) (heaven knows why except for Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) share loss, certainly not ad pickup) and a bounce from Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take), we have nothing to hang our hats on. I recommended Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) last night on "Mad Money" because it is so obvious that tech wants to go higher, but that was the only tech that I felt good enough to push because the company has some visibility.

Meanwhile, the Homebuilders Index (HGX) looks like it is breaking out, and as for whom the Toll (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) bells, it is ringing in the ears of the bears with that move back to $22. I am getting comfort from smart guys that the Bank Index (BKX) isn't as important as I make it -- including from my No. 1 guy, Matt Horween, or Helene Meisler, my fave tech person -- because there are too many zombies in it. Matt prefers preferreds, at least as a tell for the financials, and they are roaring.

So, my thesis: China. China is going to be leading us out of this. We see it in the right-out-of-the-chute move there beginning with the new year -- I even paid up for a China ETF yesterday for Action Alerts PLUS -- see that product for the particulars. We see it with rate cuts and with off-the-chart stimulus. The moves in Asia are stunning, particularly when you consider that the gadget market is pretty moribund.





I wish it were confirmed by the Baltic Freight Index, but it isn't, and one of the highest-profile dry bulk tanker companies, Armada -- a Singapore-based company -- actually filed for a reorganization last night. I wish it were confirmed by more than just a blip up in copper and some talk that steel is holding up after a precipitous decline. I wish it were confirmed by lending in this country, although the St. Louis Fed released numbers last night that showed lending is pretty strong. Go figure. And I certainly wish it were confirmed by any actual orders to actual companies.

But it hasn't been.

I thought the spike up in oil is entirely because of Gaza; however, I am hearing that China's buying, although that's not even money-in-the-bank info.

Why is it so important? Because I want a thesis for why people are so excited about this market, other than "they are done selling." I want something more than just "stocks are cheap," because my best macro earnings-per-share people are saying that the market's really at 13 times forward earnings: no bargain. And I want leadership besides the fertilizers -- obvious to expect good numbers from those well-based stocks -- to take us somewhere.

So I settle on China. And the prospects that Europe joins with China in more rate cuts, which do matter.

It does feel like a train-leaving-the-station market.

Because of my discipline from long ago not to buy a market that is over +5 on the S&P oscillator that I use, available for a fee from the S&P Corporation (I endlessly push this and deserve a commission for it, for heaven's sake), I can't buy up here for AAPlus.

However, at least I have a thesis, which is more than a lot of other buyers have. Good to have one. Otherwise we know that it is just euphoria, and euphoria has a funny way of ending.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard. "

(in www.realmoney.com)