Greve alargada a mais três setores e contratos a prazo a três anos

[goncalonr]

Meus Caros,

Este tópico, com notícias sobre o mercado imobiliário e financeiro, juntamente com outro tipo de artigos, análises e entrevistas, passam a estar actualizadas em www.outofthebox.com.pt

Um abraço a todos.

[goncalonr]

Governo cria fundo imobiliário de 100 milhões para ajudar PME em dificuldades
(26-02-2009 - 16:07)

O Governo vai anunciar esta tarde a criação de um novo programa de ajuda às pequenas e médias empresas, o PME Consolida, que prevê a criação de um fundo de investimento imobiliário de 100 milhões de euros, que irá comprar os imóveis das empresas com dificuldades financeiras.

Manuel Pinho vai anunciar esta tarde os detalhes do PME Consolida, um novo programa de apoio às PME, no valor de 400 milhões de euros. Este programa visa promover a capitalização e facilitar a reestruturação das PME portuguesas e tem por base três instrumentos.

Um deles passa pela criação de um fundo de investimento imobiliário, com 100 milhões de euros, que visa promover o acesso à liquidez por parte das “PME economicamente viáveis mas que estejam com problemas de natureza financeira”.

Com a criação deste fundo, as empresas visadas podem alienar ao fundo parte dos seus activos imobiliários, “ficando como arrendatários e recebendo liquidez para a sua exploração e desenvolvimento de actividade”.

Ou seja, as empresas que queiram aderir a este fundo, vendem os activos imobiliários ao fundo mas continuam a usufruir da infra-estrutura, agora em regime de arrendamento ao fundo.

175 milhões para fusões e aquisições

O principal instrumento do PME Consolida passa pela disponibilização de 175 milhões de euros para “incentivar o redimensionamento de PME”. Este montante será fornecido através de mecanismos de incentivo a fusões e aquisições, quer em Portugal, quer no estrangeiro.

O terceiro instrumento passa pelo reforço do capital de risco em 125 milhões de euros.

O Inovcapital receberá uma dotação adicional de 75 milhões de euros e o Fundo Turismo de 50 milhões de euros, “com o objectivo de capitalizar as PME nacionais exportadoras e de base tecnológica, bem como as empresas do sector do turismo que necessitam de reforço de capitais próprios para expansão da actividade e modernização ou lançamento de novas unidades”.

In Bigonline

[JCS]

Nozaleda ofrece su patrimonio a la banca para salvar su grupo
Alejandra Ramón / Carmen Canfrán | 7:52 - 5/02/2009
14 comentarios

Luis Nozaleda, presidente de Nozar. Fuente: archivoEnlaces relacionadosEl juez admite a trámite la solicitud de concurso de acreedores contra Nozar (27/01)
La familia Nozaleda está dispuesta a casi cualquier cosa para lograr salvar su inmobiliaria. Tal es su voluntad y esfuerzo por reflotar Nozar que esta saga de empresarios ha optado por ofrecer su patrimonio personal a los bancos acreedores con los que lleva más de un año negociando la refinanciación de su deuda que asciende a más de 4.000 millones de euros, según explicaron fuentes cercanas a la negociación que mantiene el grupo con las entidades financieras.


Sin embargo, poner toda la carne en el asador es la última carta que guardan en la manga los Nozaleda. "Esperamos que finalmente no sea necesario tirar de su patrimonio personal", señaló a este diario un portavoz de la familia.

A pesar del exceso de garantías que ofrece la familia a las entidades acreedoras, las fuentes consultadas insisten en afirmar que la empresa no se ha salvado de la quema, pues todavía continúa negociando con los bancos. El gran escollo de Nozar, a su juicio, es su escasez de liquidez a corto plazo. En cambio, la inmobiliaria cuenta con un patrimonio que le puede salvar si las entidades le echan una mano.

Pese a que las conversaciones van por "buen camino" y existen "buenas intenciones", tanto por parte de los bancos como de la familia Nozaleda, lo cierto es que, actualmente, el papel decisivo recae en el titular del juzgado mercantil número 2 de Madrid, que estudia el posible concurso de acreedores necesario de Nozar.

El juez Pedro Gómez deberá dirimir, una vez que escuche la defensa preparada por la inmobiliaria, si existen los indicios suficientes para que Nozar vaya a concurso de acreedores. Hay que recordar que el juez titular, en su primer auto de admisión a trámite de la petición de concurso que solicitó el proveedor Avalatransa, especificó que había "hechos reveladores que enumera la Ley Concursal como circunstancias determinantes en la declaración de concurso necesario". Es decir, veía indicios para que la promotora terminara en proceso concursal.

[goncalonr]

JLL sees Q4 profit slide 60%
Date: 5 February 2009
Category: Company News
Global property adviser Jones Lang LaSalle reported net income of $41.5 mln (EUR 32.2 mln) in the final quarter of 2008, down 60.6% on the $105.4 mln booked in the year-earlier period as property markets worldwide took a beating from the credit crisis. Per share, profit fell to $1.17 from $3.16 in 2007.

Full-year net income in 2008 fell 68% to $84 mln, or $2.44 per share, from $256 mln or $7.64 per share in the year-earlier period. The decline partly reflected acquisition and severance charges totalling nearly $50 mln. JLL booked $18 mln of intangible amortization and $7 mln of integration costs relating to the acquisition of The Staubach Company in the US and Kemper's in Germany. Full-year results also included severance charges of $23 mln resulting from the need to reduce staff in response to the global economic downturn.

Full-year revenue was flat at $2.7 bn, despite substantial declines in Capital Markets and Hotels transactions levels, JLL said. Over the fourth quarter of 2008, revenue fell 8% to $797 mln from $862 mln a year earlier. JLL attributed the drop to the stronger US dollar and a $106 mln decline in revenue from Capital Markets and Hotels.

Revenue from the EMEA region amounted to $871 mln over the full year, down 6% from 2007. Over the final quarter, revenue was down 26% at $243 mln compared with the previous year. Here again, the main contributing factors were Capital Markets and Hotels, down $152 mln or 44% for the year and down $56 mln or 49% for the quarter.

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Pending Home Sales Revive On Lower Prices, Rates
Topics:Economy (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Mortgages | Credit | Subprime Lending | Housing | Real EstateBy: Reuters | 03 Feb 2009 | 10:41 AM ET Text Size Pending sales of existing U.S. homes rebounded in December, data showed Tuesday, as buyers waded back into the market to take advantage of lower prices and mortgage interest rates.



The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in December, surged 6.3 percent to 87.7, rising for the first time since August.

Compared with the same period a year-ago, pending homes sale were up 2.1 percent in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending home sales to be flat in December. November's pending home sales index was revised up to 82.5.

U.S. stock indexes briefly turned positive on the report, but later headed lower as investors fretted about poor earnings. Government bond prices, which typically tend to rise on data showing rising distress in the economy, extended losses.


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"In an otherwise bleak landscape, this represents a ray of hope, as it's a leading indicator for existing home sales. I'm sure it's foreclosure-driven, so it could be a hollow number," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com, in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Data from the housing market, which is at the center of the worst financial and economic crisis in decades, has sent conflicting signals in recent days.

Last week, the NAR reported an unexpected rise in existing home sales in December, driven mainly by distressed sales, with prices falling from a year earlier by the biggest margin in over 40 years.


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The NAR's housing affordability index jumped 10.9 percent in December to 158.8, the highest since it began tracking records in 1970. The index rose on falling home prices and low mortgage rates.

But government data Thursday showed sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in December by their biggest margin since 1994.

Stability in the housing market is critical to the U.S. economy's recovery. The economy slipped into recession in December 2007.

Falling house prices, coupled with the stock market collapse and tight access to credit, have hit consumer spending, which accounts for about two thirds of U.S. economic activity.

In CNBC

[goncalonr]

Five years of UK capital growth eroded in 18 months, says IPD
Date: 2 February 2009
Category: Index
All Property UK commercial property capital values fell by a record -14.4% over the fourth quarter last year, giving an annual decline of -26.4%, according to the IPD UK Quarterly Property Index Q4 2008. Total returns fell by -13.0% over the final quarter and by -22.1% over the full year.

IPD said that in nominal terms the figures represent the biggest annual fall in capital values and lowest returns for UK commercial property investment on record. Capital values have now fallen -34.3% since the onset of the property market re-pricing cycle in July 2007. Fourth quarter and annual capital growth figures for the three principal sectors were -15.1% and -27.0% for Retail; -14.1% and -26.5% for Offices and; -13.7% and -25.7% for Industrials.

IPD said the story over the first seven years of the century is one of two parts. Over the five and a half years from 2002 to mid 2007, equivalent yields fell and capital values rose every quarter. In the 18 months to the end of 2008, equivalent yields have risen every quarter while capital values have fallen. Overall, the entire gains made over the boom cycle have been eroded in 18 months of successive falls, with capital values now broadly in line with December 2001 levels.


In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Chamartín admite vender Dolce Vita Tejo após abertura

A Chamartín Imobiliária vai continuar proprietária do Dolce Vita Tejo nos próximos meses, mas admite vir a alienar este activo a fundos de investimento após a abertura. O centro comercial tem inauguração marcada para 7 de Maio e já assegurou a ocupação de 96% dos seus 122 mil metros quadrados de área bruta locável (ABL). "Confiamos que a nossa capacidade de gestão irá, após a abertura, valorizar o centro", disse o novo líder da Chamartín em Portugal, Artur Soutinho, ao Negócios.

2009/01/28 - 00:01
Fonte: Jornal de Negócios


Uma oportunidade para a Sonae Sierra (caso conseguissem financiamento...).

Cumprimentos

JCS

Já tinha lido isto hoje... algo que vou seguir com atenção para ver que fundos pegarão neste shopping. Considero ser um investimento de alto risco com elevada concorrência. E como ficará o Colombo?

E será mesmo uma oportunidade para a Sonae Sierra? Já tem o Colombo, ganhou recentemente 2 gestões - indicando que neste momento terão se calhar mais apetência a apenas gerir do que deter propriedade - não estou a vê-los ser proprietários sem serem gestores e o plano de expansão em Portugal parece estar a ser feito por entrada em mercados regionais...

[JCS]

Chamartín admite vender Dolce Vita Tejo após abertura

A Chamartín Imobiliária vai continuar proprietária do Dolce Vita Tejo nos próximos meses, mas admite vir a alienar este activo a fundos de investimento após a abertura. O centro comercial tem inauguração marcada para 7 de Maio e já assegurou a ocupação de 96% dos seus 122 mil metros quadrados de área bruta locável (ABL). "Confiamos que a nossa capacidade de gestão irá, após a abertura, valorizar o centro", disse o novo líder da Chamartín em Portugal, Artur Soutinho, ao Negócios.

2009/01/28 - 00:01
Fonte: Jornal de Negócios


Uma oportunidade para a Sonae Sierra (caso conseguissem financiamento...).

Cumprimentos

JCS

[goncalonr]

Fannie Mae To Seek Funds From Treasury
Mortgage Firms' Requests For Aid Near $65 Billion

By Zachary A. Goldfarb
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 27, 2009; D01



Fannie Mae said yesterday that it expects to request up to $16 billion from the Treasury Department, marking the first time the federally run mortgage giant will tap the government's largesse.

Freddie Mac has already received $13.8 billion from the government and said Friday that it expected to request up to $35 billion more when it reports earnings next month.

If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both ask for the maximum they've indicated, the price tag for the government takeover of the companies in its first five months would be $64.8 billion. That money is separate from the $700 billion that the government is using to bail out the financial and auto sectors.

When the government seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year, federal officials pledged up to $100 billion for each to keep them stable. Investments are to be made whenever a company's assets are worth less than its liabilities, giving the company a negative worth. In the third quarter, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported a combined $54 billion in losses.

Those losses put McLean-based Freddie Mac under water, prompting the first government investment in November. District-based Fannie Mae didn't need government cash at the time, though its cushion against further losses withered significantly. The company's overall value at the time was $9.4 billion.

Fannie Mae's need for government cash reflects the worsening economic picture in the past few months. The value of mortgage securities that Fannie Mae owns has suffered as homeowners have had trouble paying their home loans and more properties have gone into foreclosure. Fannie Mae has to report this decrease in value as a loss.

But Fannie Mae has a second problem. It insures mortgages and mortgage bonds for investors around the world, promising timely payment of principal and interest. As these securities have gone bad, Fannie Mae has had to cover the losses.

Historically, Fannie Mae insured the highest-quality mortgage bonds. But in the final years of the housing boom, the company rushed into insuring bonds consisting of home loans extended to people who did not provide proof of their income or employment. These types of mortgages turned out to be toxic.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's requests for government assistance would compensate for losses only in 2008. The companies would make the formal requests for aid when they report their fourth quarter and 2008 annual earnings next month.

Given economic conditions, Jim Vogel, an analyst at FTN Financial in Tennessee, said in a research note yesterday that a loss for Fannie Mae of up to $25 billion in the fourth quarter would not be surprising -- "which is a shocking statement in itself, but it's true."

The year could bring more losses for Fannie Mae, depending on the state of the economy and housing market and what happens in Congress.

Lawmakers are pursuing legislation that would let bankruptcy judges rewrite mortgages to make them more affordable for homeowners -- and force lenders to take a loss as the mortgages are written down in value.

"There will be another significant hit in the first quarter as the values of these securities declined significantly following the announcement of bankruptcy cram down legislation," wrote Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse. "For Fannie and Freddie alone, this could cost the Treasury another $20 billion or so in early 2009."

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have agreed to modify thousands of mortgages to make them more affordable for borrowers who might lose their homes otherwise. The companies also said they would stop evicting or foreclosing on homeowners through the end of this month. These efforts might not cost the companies more than a few billion dollars.

In Washington Post

[goncalonr]

ING unveils EUR 600m writedowns on real estate
Date: 27 January 2009
Category: Finance
Dutch financial giant ING said on Monday that it expects to post real estate writedowns of EUR 600 mln in the fourth quarter, accounting for half of the group's total real estate writedowns for the full year (EUR 1.2 bn). The correction in the value of its real estate was mostly seen in the UK, Australia and the US, chairman Jan Hommen said in a conference call on Monday. 'Real estate prices, including the US housing market, were down, roughly 30% in the fourth quarter,' Hommen said. Writedowns across all businesses totaled EUR 1.8 bn in the fourth quarter.

Based on preliminary data, the group said it expects to post a full-year net loss of about EUR 1 bn and that it would cut 7,000 jobs this year as a result of 'persistently challenging economic and market conditions.' ING, which in October received EUR 10 bn of funds from the Dutch government, also announced that the state is taking an 80% stake in its EUR 27.7 bn US mortgage backed securities business. As a result of disappointing results, ING's chief executive Michel Tilmant will step down from the executive board with immediate effect and will be replaced by chairman Hommen.

'In the fourth quarter market conditions deteriorated sharply, making it the worst quarter for equity and credit markets in over half a century,' ING said in a statement on Monday.

As part of a series of measures to improve profitability, the group announced it will cut operating expenses by EUR 1 bn in 2009, of which 35% will come from slashing 7,000 full-time positions in 2009. This represents about 5.4% of ING's total staff of 130,000 worldwide.

'We are currently discussing where these positions will be cut. What I can say now is that the Netherlands will be relatively less impacted that the business abroad,' said John Hele, who will be retained as Group Chief Financial Officer until end-March 2009.

ING said it hopes to raise proceeds of EUR 2-3 bn from the divestments of several business units and added that 'it will work towards these disposals in a disciplined way.' 'We will carry out some divestments in the first quarter of 2009,' it added. The company did not say which business units are on the chopping block.

'A number of actions have already been taken in the course of the fourth quarter to adapt to the current environment,' Hele said. In particular, the group's real estate arm has carried out net disposals of EUR 900 mln over the course of last year and ING said it will look into selling more real estate assets in 2009. 'If we can dispose without losing value, we will do so,' Hele said in a statement.

ING expects market conditions will continue to be challenging and does not rule out the need for further capital injections in the future. 'Although our starting position is sound, we cannot forecast where the market will go,' the company said.


In Property EU

[Bocciardi]

Vendas de casas usadas sobem nos EUA
As vendas de casas usadas nos EUA subiram inesperadamente recuperando do valor mais baixo de sempre, com a queda dos preços dos imóveis a ser o principal factor a contribuir para esta tendência.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lara Rosa
lararosa@mediafin.pt


As vendas de casas usadas nos EUA subiram inesperadamente recuperando do valor mais baixo de sempre, com a queda dos preços dos imóveis a ser o principal factor a contribuir para esta tendência.

As compras de casas aumentaram 6,5% ao levarem o valor total de imóveis vendidos nos EUA para os 4,74 milhões, o que compara com o número registado em Novembro que foi de 4,45 milhões, segundo a Associação Nacional de Consultores Imobiliários, segundo a Bloomberg.

Esta subida surpreendeu os economistas que esperavam que as vendas tivessem diminuído para uma taxa anual de 4,4 milhões de casas.

Este desempenho ficou a dever-se essencialmente à queda dos preços que foi, em média, de 15%, a maior queda desde que começaram a ser registados os dados, em 1968.

@JNegócios

E eu acho que é este o caminho... Há por aí muita casinha antiga abandonada onde uma boa remodelação vale milhares...

[goncalonr]

Irish property investor dies in suspected suicide
Date: 22 January 2009
Category: People
An Irish businessman who invested at least EUR 300 mln in real estate in the UK was found dead in his Dublin home this week. Patrick Rocca had suffered a single gunshot wound to the head and a firearm was found near his body. The authorities are satisfied that nobody else was involved.

His funeral took place on Wednesday.

Media outlets in Ireland reported that Rocca had lost large sums of money in Anglo Irish Bank, a major financier of real estate which was nationalised by Dublin this week to prevent its collapse. Rocca is believed to have carried out about 20 commercial property transactions in the UK with a total value of EUR 300 mln though his company Accorp Properties.

The assets held by Accorp Properties include the Lloyds Chambers on Portsoken Street in the City of London, Norwich Union House in Sheffield, and Crystal Court near London City Airport.

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Allianz Real Estate to spend EUR 10bn
Date: 22 January 2009
Category: Investment
Munich-based Allianz Real Estate plans to spend at least EUR 10 bn over the next five years around the world and potentially double the size of the firm's property portfolio. President and CEO Olivier Piani said the company will focus primarily on markets outside Europe.

Speaking to the Wall Street Journal in his first interview since taking over at Allianz Real Estate, he said he wanted to transform the company into a single, focused organisation with a global reach and a more diversified portfolio. Piani moved to Allianz Real Estate last year after GE Real Estate, where he was European chief, decided to shift the focus away from direct property investment in favour of buying commercial property loans. Allianz Real Estate is part of Allianz SE, the largest insurance company in Europe.

The Wall Street Journal said Piani will bring Allianz's independent real-estate activities - concentrated in Germany, France and Italy - under the umbrella of Allianz Real Estate, and expand the portfolio in markets outside Europe.

The paper said Allianz is to announce the acquisition of a 50% stake in the 34-storey One Beacon Street office tower in Boston for an undisclosed amount this week. In September Allianz purchased a 25% stake in 1301 Avenue of the Americas in Manhattan for $110 mln (now EUR 85 mln).

Allianz is opening offices in New York and Singapore, and may open offices in London later this year. Piani sais Allianz wants to diversify its portfolio from mainly offices to include retail.

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Lack of credit set to hold back US market
By Daniel Pimlott in London and Alan Rappeport in New York

Published: January 21 2009 21:50 | Last updated: January 21 2009 21:50

The US property industry is heading for a dire year, with rising vacant space, increasing default rates on loans and further falls in prices, industry analysts warn.

After a dismal 2008 – in which sales volumes fell 68 per cent year-on-year according to Reis, a property research firm – the chief constraint on the industry is likely to remain the lack of available credit.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
Market is shaken to its foundations - Jan-21Europe braced for further turmoil - Jan-21Chinese office market has all but dried up - Jan-21Japan in the throes of a downturn - Jan-21In depth: Global financial crisis - Dec-21Property valuations come with caveats - Nov-09The disappearance of the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities – as credit market turmoil extinguished investor appetite for complex securities – has removed a vital supply line for financing deals.

In 2007, sales of CMBS hit a record $230bn, but that slumped to $12.1bn in 2008 with no bonds issued in the last five months the year, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert.

Dave Esrig, head of real estate research at JPMorgan Chase, said: “There has been a huge withdrawal of liquidity. A delevering is certainly at work in the commercial property market.

Colin Thomasson, managing director at DTZ said: “Many property [investors] are finding it difficult to sell assets and refinance existing assets.”

The reduced lending means that as hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial property debt comes due in 2009, borrowers will increasingly find it difficult to access new financing.

Mr Esrig expects defaults on CMBS from 2006 and 2007 could reach 20 per cent, compared with current levels across the whole CMBS market of less than1 per cent.

Forced sales have already begun to make up an increasing share of the market, but this year should see rising sales as sellers are forced to raise capital and accept higher cap rates – a key industry measure of the operating income of a property to its value – and lower prices.

Regionally, a flight from risk will mean that property in primary markets such as Washington DC and New York is likely to hold up better. Pittsburgh, where the economy is centred on healthcare and medical industries, has also been less affected by the downturn.

Even Manhattan has not been immune, however, as commercial property sales fell by 66 per cent in 2008 to a four-year low of $17.09bn

[goncalonr]

UK initial yields to peak at 8% plus in late summer - JLL
Date: 22 January 2009
Category: Research
Average IPD initial yields for all UK property are forecast to reach a peak of 8% plus by late summer 2009, Jones Lang LaSalle notes in its UK Capital Markets Outlook Report 2009.

Julian Stocks, head of Capital Markets, England at Jones Lang LaSalle, said: 'Drawing on current analysis and lessons from the past, we believe IPD initial yields will bottom out in the third quarter of 2009; and look set to remain at that level for the rest of the year.'

Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts commercial property rents will decrease across all sectors in 2009 and 2010 with the largest fall for the office market where IPD average rents across the UK are anticipated to decline by 11%.

Stocks added: 'We expect a bounce back in average rents from 2011 onwards as the economy recovers. The main risk to the forecasts is a more prolonged and deeper downtown in the UK and global economy and, in these uncertain times, we will continue to monitor developments closely.'

Jones Lang LaSalle expects IPD All-Property average total returns of between -7% and -12% in 2009, reflecting falling rental value combined with negative investor sentiment. Returns will improve gradually and 2008 will therefore represent the lowest level of returns in this cycle.

Julian Stocks concluded: 'Our view is that we are through the worst in terms of negative totals returns and they will begin to improve gradually from today. Investors and policy makers alike are unable to predict with any degree of certainty when the turmoil in financial markets will end, so our forecasts are subject to regular review.'

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Hypo receives additional injection of EUR 12bn in state guarantees
Date: 22 January 2009
Category: Finance
Hypo Real Estate Bank has announced that the German stabilisation fund SoFFin has increased its guarantee agreement by an additional EUR 12 bn. This bring the total state guarantee package granted by SoFFin to Hypo to EUR 42 bn.

Munich-based Hypo Real Estate Bank, part of the Hypo Real Estate Group, is to use the guarantees to collateralise debt securities. The group was saved from collapse last October by a EUR 50 bn public-private bailout, which is separate to the SoFFin guarantee agreement.

There seem to be no end in sight to Hypo Real Estate's need for state support. In a statement on Wednesday, the financier said: 'Negotiations between Hypo Real Estate and SoFFin regarding more extensive and longer-term liquidity and capital support measures for the group have not yet been finalised'.

Media reports have suggested that the German government has considered taking a stake in Hypo Real Estate but this option is being held in reserve.

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

TOKYO, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is considering accepting bonds issued by real estate investment trusts (REITs) as collateral for its lending, the Asahi Shimbun daily reported on Monday.

The central bank's policy board is expected to discuss what kind of corporate debt it can buy or take as collateral to grease the clogged up wheels of corporate finance at its two-day policy meeting starting on Wednesday. [ID:nT154616]

Japanese REITs have been hit by the global turmoil in housing and credit markets and an exodus of funds by foreign investors, and they have been facing funding difficulties particularly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers LHMQ.PK in September. (Reporting by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

[goncalonr]

'UK property losses could trigger second credit crunch'
Date: 16 January 2009
Category: Finance
Commercial property companies, banks and investors must look to broader restructuring and refinancing solutions, says Close Brothers, a European corporate finance adviser. The group is urging banks and investors in the UK property sector to devise alternative financing solutions in the face of a potential £140 bn (EUR 155 bn) price fall and a £125 bn debt refinancing bill over the next four years.

Going into 2009, it has been calculated that banks are exposed to approximately £250 bn of UK commercial property debt, of which 50% needs to be refinanced in the next four years. Close Brothers believes the scale of this issue is likely to trigger further write-downs and, combined with the impact of a worsening wider economy, a second credit crunch in due course.

Gareth Davies, managing director in Close Brothers' European Restructuring and Debt Advisory Group, said, 'The commercial property world has not seen a significant downturn since the early 1990s when the financing structures deployed were much simpler and less aggressive. Banks adopted a strategy of selling assets into a distressed market however; this caused a death spiral with ever-decreasing prices.'

Today, appetite among banks to write new loans has evaporated, with a corresponding drop in acquisition activity and price depreciation. Close Brothers predicts that by the time the market has bottomed in late 2009 - early 2010, prices will have fallen by 50% to 60%.


In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Trading volumes in Central Europe down 50% - C&W
Date: 8 January 2009
Category: Research
The real estate investment market in Central Europe experienced a major reversal in 2008 as the global financial crisis transformed into an economic slowdown. Cushman & Wakefield reported that total investment volume for the region declined to just EUR 3 bn, 50% of the average recorded over recent years. The broker's research covers the four countries of the Visegrad Group: Poland, Hungary, The Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Poland was the best performer, with EUR 1.75 bn transacted, accounting for more than half the total investment volume for the region. In comparison with previous years the transaction volume was 42% lower than in 2007 and 66% lower than in 2006. 'However, the investment volume is still better than in 2004,' C&W said.

The real estate investment market in Hungary collapsed to EUR 407 mln in 2008. C&W said this was in stark contrast to the record level achieved in 2007 of EUR 1.9 bn. Volumes in Slovakia tumbled to EUR 119 mln, 60% less than the total in 2007.

In the Czech Republic, total investment volume came to around EUR 850 mln in the three main commercial sectors (office, retail and industrial) during 2008. The decrease in investment volume was approximately 63% year-on-year. Nearly 90% of the total investment volume was completed prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent withdrawal of many German open-ended funds in the final quarter.

Across the region investors favoured the office sector, with an increase in market share from 43% to 64% between 2007 and 2008 whilst the retail market share fell back from 48% to 23% over the same period. Charles Taylor, head of Capital Markets at C&W in Budapest forecasts a moderate flow of capital back into property investment in Central Europe during 2009.

'The re-pricing of property across the region is accelerating and as soon as owners accept the reality of the market, some attractive buying opportunities will open up for prime assets and sites that have been hard to source in recent years,' he said.

'Economic conditions are obviously set to be tougher than the region has become used to, but Central Europe as a whole is still expected to out-perform the West. As a result we anticipate an improving appetite for investment in the region later this year, once credit availability improves and as soon as risk tolerances start to increase once more.'

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

Yields in Europe rise100 bps in 18 months
Date: 13 January 2009
Category: Research
Yields in the European office, retail and industrial sectors have all risen 100 basis points or more since mid-2007, according to research by CB Richard Ellis. The broker said the scale of the re-pricing in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) markets could help to close the gap between buyer and seller pricing expectations and is likely to present attractive buying opportunities for equity-rich investors targeting the commercial real estate market.

Prime office yields continue to be particularly affected by the turmoil in the debt and investment markets and were driven up by 41 basis points in the fourth quarter, according to the CB Richard Ellis EU-15 office yield index. As a result, they are now nearly 100 basis points higher than a year ago. Forty-two of the 47 locations surveyed saw upward yield movements with the largest rises occurring in Kiev and Dublin. A number of other key markets - including Paris, Brussels, Moscow, Vienna and the City of London - saw increases of over 50 bps in the quarter.

The fourth quarter also witnessed yield increases in both the retail and industrial sectors. The CB Richard Ellis retail yield index for the EU-15 area rose by 31 basis points in the quarter, and as a result is 78 basis points higher than the fourth quarter 2007. In the industrial sector, the CB Richard Ellis industrial yield index for the EU-15 area rose by 35 basis points in the fourth quarter, and is almost 100 basis points higher than this time last year.

Richard Holberton, director CB Richard Ellis EMEA Research and Consulting, said: 'The combined effects of the various upheavals in financial markets in the fourth quarter of last year, and the weakening economic outlook, are clearly evident in the near-universal rise in yields. In addition to reduced liquidity, pricing is increasingly reflecting the prospect of weaker occupier demand, and hence lower income growth potential in many locations. However, with yields in the three main commercial sectors now having risen by 100 basis points or more since mid-2007, the scale of re-pricing is also likely to present attractive buying opportunities for equity investors in 2009.'


In Propertu EU

[goncalonr]

UK listed sector heading for negative equity, JPMorgan warns
Date: 15 January 2009
Category: Company
The UK's listed property sector is set to run into negative equity territory by the end of 2009, real estate analysts at JPMorgan have warned.

In a property stocks note entitled 'The Phantom of Recovery', analysts Harm Meijer and Osmaan Malik say that Loan-To-Value ratios for the UK commercial investment property market - excluding owner-occupier buildings - could rise to 102% by the end of 2009. They base their hypothesis on their expectations for further capital declines. 'We estimate that at November 2008 the LTV for UK investment property stood at 79%, but we expect this to rise to 102% based on our expectations of a further decline of 22%,' they said in the report.

As the increase in LTV to above 100% implies negative equity, JPMorgan says this could have severe implications as banks may move to recover cash. While many companies may breach their LTV covenants, JPMorgan believes real estate investment trusts - which account for the lion's share of the UK listed sector - would be comparatively better placed due to their better capital structure.

The analysts and JPMorgan's Banks team say this may result in a debt restructuring involving the creation of a good and bad bank.

Separately, independent corporate finance adviser Close Brothers has issued a statement urging banks and investors in the UK property sector to develop alternative financing solutions in the face of a potential £140 bn (EUR 155) price fall and a £125 bn debt refinancing bill over the next four years.

Drawing on calculations that banks are exposed to approximately £250 bn of UK commercial property debt, of which 50% needs to be refinanced in the next four years, Close Brothers said it believes the scale of this issue has not been fully appreciated and is likely to trigger further write-downs and, combined with the impact of a worsening wider economy, a second credit crunch.

In Property EU

[goncalonr]

E para terminar a colecção de gráficos, fica aqui um com um dado também importante: vendas feitas com prejuízo.

[goncalonr]

Este é interessante, nota-se bem o ponto de inversão na valorização imobiliária, bem como a descida da rendibilidade no investimento em habitação...

[goncalonr]

Gráfico de New House Starts...

[goncalonr]

Deixo também aqui 2 gráficos... não sei se concordo muito com a ideia que só depois do imobiliário bater no fundo é que podemos esperar uma retoma, por 2 razões:

- Acho que ainda não batemos no fundo do imobiliário!
- O imobiliário, activo mais rígido, tende a reagir mais tarde que os valores mobiliários, logo tende a encontrar topos, fundos e pontos de inversão mais lentamente.

Deixo o gráfico do S&P Case Shiller que mostra que estamos longe do fundo...