Governo quer impedir que pais recusem trabalho ao fim de semana

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Monday Morning Quarterback: The World's Wildest Reality Show"
Todd Harrison
Nov 24, 2008 9:35 am

" Government moves to shore up Citi.



Get the 411 on your Fidelity 401(k).

“The devil went down to Georgia, he was looking for a soul to steal. He was in a bind cause he was way behind and was looking to make a deal.”
--Charlie Daniels

Welcome back to the world’s wildest reality show brought to you by the U.S. government and your very own taxpayer dollars.

When we last left, our battered and bruised hero—the stock market—was on the Freaky Friday ropes before a well-timed announcement of the incoming Treasury Secretary saved the day. That sparked a vicious short-covering rally and set the stage for this fresh five-session set.

Last night, while most folks watched football and I taped a television segment (is nothing sacred?), news broke that the U.S. government agreed to rescue Citigroup (C) with $306 billion of guarantees for troubled mortgages and toxic assets to stabilize the bank following last week’s 60% slide (and 93% drop since last year).

That’s lending a bid to pre-market trading--as I write, the S&P futures are up 3%, NASDAQ futures are 2% higher and Citigroup itself is bid up 55%--and pressuring the dollar, which is indicated 1.7% lower against a basket of currencies. One morning does not a market make but the clues to the muse are nestled in our midst.

While we’ve been bearish for the better part of the year—OK, a few years, but work with us—we offered five potential surprises last week that could potentially play out into year-end.

Central to those thoughts was exhaustion by the U.S. dollar which, through the lens of asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation, was a necessary precursor (but no guarantor) of higher asset classes.

This kick-save by no means rescues the tape—there are alotta holes in the financial dike and only so many fingers with which to plug them—but given the oversold condition and dire despair amongst investors, the mere whiff of optimism might be enough to turn the tide, if only for a trade.

Next up? General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), which are the other sick kids in the playground, and those looking for flies in this try won’t have to search far.

As previously stated, there are a ton of structural problems, credit is getting worse and the potential for a seismic shift looms. Still, I’m wearing my metaphorical bull costume (50% conviction on the upside since S&P 785) and have stayed the course since Thursday despite what feels a belabored effort by the bulls.


Alas, the purpose of the journey is the journey itself and we power up this holiday thinned week with hat in hand and positive vibes in mind. Nobody is smarter than the market and we know all too well that if you don’t stay humble, the market will do it for you.


Some Random Thoughts to Start the Week:



If admitting you have a problem is the first step in overcoming it, I suppose we should be thrilled that Ben Bernanke finally fessed that he underestimated the housing problem.


Of course, if policy makers read Minyanville in April, 2007, they would have been proactively prepared rather than reactively scared.


There’s no pride or prejudice in victory laps nor is that our intent. We’re focusing the efforts of our esteemed community on identifying solutions for our financial mess as it’s not only our right, it’s our obligation. If you have thoughts on how to move the needle, please pass them along.


Does anyone else get the sense that the NY Knicks are a proxy for economic recovery? Given their bloated balance sheet, a “me now” mindset and a litany of losses, perhaps there’s serendipity that they traded their stars with hopes of rebuilding a star-studded portfolio of players by 2010?

Gold up 85 bananas since Thursday’s close? If we indeed see a seismic currency shift, this action will be telling with the benefit of hindsight.


Be careful for what you wish? I officially have Carly Simon out of my head but I've got this going on. Somebody please make it stop.


How do you reconcile "hope isn't a viable investment vehicle" with the notion of proactive positioning? Defined risk? Scaled exposure? A healthy serving of Howard Jones with a side of Kajagoogoo?


Minyan Cheesehead Mike asked if the "step back" by policy makers last week was an attempt to let the market take its medicine of price so that "time" is on Obama's side and the collective psychology shifts for the better in January.


My response? "If the powers that be did ANYTHING that even hinted at an understanding of how the system worked—and I'm talking any sort of proactive action or anticipation, rather than denial until after the point of no return—I could see it."


I further added that I’m getting increasingly constructive on the forest fire analogy (scary and dangerous but necessary for re-birthing and greener pastures) but the world needs to hold together with an eye towards globalization and avoid, at all costs, isolationism.


Too shy shy, hush hush, are you are...


The Dow Jones Industrial Average came thisclose to a 50% retracement year-over-year. We can debate whether or not the current crisis is on part with The Great Depression (83% decline from the peak) but perception is reality in the marketplace. If enough people expect a bounce from that level, odds are it’ll self-fulfill.


You know my current positioning (long, for a trade) but I would argue that our current crisis could conceivably be worse than the Great Depression. Why? FDR didn’t know what a derivative was, over 60% of the population wasn’t invested in the markets back then and the world wasn’t tied together as it currently is.


How to be happy in a recession, by Deepak Chopra.


On Friday, I bought the Citigroup Infinity Zero Call at $3.75 as a lottery ticket. Pure trade and, as such, I’ll likely slap a trailing stop on that common stock.


Other trading “rentals” include Goldman Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG) (my bad, as I believe Research in Motion (RIMM) is a better beta play), Sears (SHLD), USO, Weatherford (WFT), DXO and the odd-lot Dryships (DRYS). Hey, win lose or draw, we’ll always be honest.


It’s been a long and lonely football season for yours truly but even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut. On Saturday, my lowly Syracuse Orange beat the Irish in South Bend and on Sunday, the silver and black blasted the Broncos. As my two favorite NFL teams are the Raiders and anyone playing Denver, I can officially call the weekend a clean sweep.

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)