Inflação nos alimentos em máximos de agosto de 2023

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Monday Morning Quarterback: Hope Springs Eternal"
Todd Harrison
Nov 10, 2008 9:05 am

" If one thing became clear last week, it's that America demanded change.



Don't sweat the market swings. Choose dividends.

If one thing became clear last week, it’s that America demanded change.

Citizens cast votes with a vengeance and when ballots tallied, our political direction set sail on a new and historically significant course.

Andy Dufresne once said that "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." Hope has always been part of the human condition but alas, it has never been a viable investment strategy.

The mere specter of change was enough to spark a 20% rally in the six sessions prior to the election. As reality set in and exhaled, the following two days saw the sloppiest supply since 1987. Add an edgeless Friday following “horrible but not as bad as some whispered” employment numbers and here we are, ready anew for a fresh five session set.

As our president-elect was quick to remind us, the slippery state of the union wasn’t his fault and it’ll take hard work and collective sacrifice to move the needle in the right direction. That process of discovery will take time and price as we digest an economic contagion that rapidly spread throughout the societal spectrum.

It’ll be interesting to witness the order of prioritization set forth by the new administration. The government has massive deficits with prickly partners, corporate America is choking on toxic paper in a finance-based economy, university endowments are exposed to deteriorating alternative asset class exposure and the consumer is running scared as credit stretches, foreclosures mount and unemployment ticks higher.

And there’s healthcare, the climate, energy independence, two unpopular wars and an increasing number of states and municipalities on the brink of bankruptcy. It’s a pretty pickle and it won’t be solved with a wave of a wand, no matter how much we hope, hold hands and sing Kumbaya.

There is, however, Upside to the Anger. Mainstay averages are down 40% year over year (in order to get through this, we needed to go through this), crude prices are 55% lower than the summer highs (a by-product of asset class deflation) and global central banks have injected more liquidity than Barry Bonds and Jose Canseco combined (China’s $586 billion economic stimulus package is being credited for the global lift this morning).

Minyanville, to my knowledge, was the only platform that predicted deflation as a central theme of 2008. We’ve been in the “all roads lead to debt destruction” camp for a few years and continue to believe that once that process completes, the stage will be set for an eventual and legitimate global economic recovery.

You always want to see both sides of every trade, however, particularly when the stakes are as high as our standard of living and the lifestyles of our children. As socialization spreads and nationalization arrives, we’ve been actively eyeing hyperinflation as the other side of Our Wishbone World.

Pepe Depew scribed a fantastic article on Friday offering his view that hyperinflation isn’t a near-term concern. That triggered some feedback from ye faithful, some of who pointed to Mr. Practical’s article at the end of last year that drew the distinction between credit hyperinflation and currency hyperinflation.

I circled up with Mr. Practical over the weekend to sniff out his updated take. His response might surprise some. "The government is reacting much faster than anyone expected. A hyperinflationary monetization depends on circumstance, but it could come as early as the end of this year."

A smart man once said you can pick direction or timing but you’ll rarely nail both. The answer we must currently identify is whether we’ll jump the shark before year-end and trigger a “long squeeze” as performance anxiety permeates throughout the fund community.

One step at a time, Minyans, as we together find our way.

Perspective Directive

It's easy to be a bitter critter these days. The wealth affect is diving down, unemployment is trending up and social mood is shifting at an accelerated pace. Good news is tough to find and when it arrives, the shelf life of its effects seems to be diminishing.

Walking through the streets of Manhattan has been a telling experience of late. Shop owners are standing outside their empty stores with dazed expressions on their faces. People are stressed, anxious and in many cases devoid of common courtesy. Even the weather is dark and dreary as daylight savings stole a precious hour of sunlight.

A few weeks ago, we spoke of seduction, corruption and redemption. Nestled somewhere in the latter stages of that trifecta is reality. It arrived with force in New York City this year as Wall Street went away and the Age of Austerity set in.

It's harsh, even for someone who expected this societal comeuppance, and it's a painful pill for the societal structure as the new world order evolves.

As difficult as it is to appreciate, what we're experiencing is a healthy and natural progression. It's tough to stomach given the current hardship but perspective is important as we find our way.

When I started writing in 2000, I was deluged with emails from folks trying to make sense of the tech carnage. While that was indeed a tough time, the implosion of the debt bubble has been entirely more pervasive as the other side of conspicuous spending manifests.

This too shall pass and when it does, we'll have a fresh set of experiences from which to draw the wisdom of experience. This particular discussion isn’t about the next five percent as much as the next five years.

It’s not the path we chose but it’s the journey we must complete.

Minyans are better prepared than most for what is happening and what's to come. It's not going to be easy but it won't be impossible either. We will get through this prolonged period of socioeconomic malaise and when we do, we'll be better people for it.

Appreciate the little things in life. Spend time with people and pets you love. Be good to others and better to yourself. And remember—always remember—that the purpose of the journey is the journey itself.

Random Thoughts:


I've been trading light and tight (hit it to quit it) and my Friday schnitzels were consistent with that. I nibbled on some Disney (DIS) into the opening abyss (and sold into the Snapper), faded (sold) the first rally in the S&P (and covered for a flat trade) and snuck out of my small Yahoo (YHOO) call position when it couldn’t lift with the tape. No great shakes either way but it was nice to see some green on my sheets as I headed home with a flattish book and I share my process with hopes it adds value to yours.


Goldman (GS), Apple (AAPL), Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan (JPM)) were laggy throughout Friday’s session. Keep your eyes on those names as we power up this fresh pup.


I’m hearing horror stories from friends who are struggling to make ends meet. Flat is the new up so appreciate what you have rather than lament about what you don't.


We noted the importance of S&P 900 on Friday and we’ll again point to it through the lens of potentially bullish “reverse dandruff” formation. If the S-cars can close above S&P 1005, it may be all we need to know about the flow into year-end.


The “deflation-hyperinflation” debate isn’t easy, particularly when an irresistible force (derivatives) meets an unmovable object (debt).


We’re starting to see failures due to commercial loan exposure, not just residential (Franklin Bank was seized by the FDIC Friday night with its deposits and certain assets sold to Prosperity Bank. Security Pacific Bank of California was seized by regulators; its deposits and some of its assets were acquired by Pacific Western Bank). (Thanks AC)

Have a great week, Minyans, and hit ‘em hard.

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)