Todd Harrison: "Chutes and Ladders"
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Todd Harrison: "Chutes and Ladders"
"Chutes and Ladders"
Todd Harrison
Nov 06, 2008 8:20 am
" Market goes up, market comes down. But for those with discipline, there are shekels to be had.
My goodness—writing, trading, building, growing, seeing, believing and scanning the new world order certainly takes a toll, doesn't it?
I was melding with President Fish and C.O.O. Ike yesterday about some year-end Minyan Milestones and Kevin mistakenly said "2001" instead of "2010." I turned to my best friend of 21 years and said "Time sure flies, eh?" Indeed it does.
Time, as Ruby used to say, is the most precious commodity.
I’m filming Yahoo TechTicker this morning and—wanting to respect your time—I’ll quickly share some Minyan fare as we ready for the Thursday blur. I’ll be back in the saddle before thy opening bell tolls so I’ll see YOU on the Buzz.
Following a 20% six-day lift, it's too early to tell if yesterday was a pause that refreshes or a "sell the news" reversal of fortune.
I'll simply ask Minyans to see--and respect--both sides as we together find our way.
My gut? Lower, for a trade, as a function of continued credit congestion.
There are babies in the bathwater and opportunities nestled in these obstacles.
Synchronize your time horizon with your risk profile. Big picture players shouldn’t worry about near-term noise and active day-traders need not have a macro bias.
With commodities down 45% since July—and conscious that the other side of a bubble typically means trouble—I’m inclined to focus my purchases in that space.
Why? Demand destruction and forced selling by the hedge fund community has sucked geopolitical risk premium out of the complex yet it remains a percolating possibility in an unsure world.
A snapshot of my (smaller) portfolio finds a snivlet of Yahoo (YHOO) calls (bought ‘em back yesterday morning), tag-end SPY puts (held for sale through the lens of "just trading") and my Wal-Mart (WMT) put schnitzel (with a rolling stop).
I'm not married to any of 'em—I’m in 'hit it to quit it' mode as we find our way through this freaky fray. This market is a monster but for those operating with steadfast discipline, there are shekels to be had.
It seems that every time I turn around, another person I know has left or lost a job. These are tense times and the proper perspective is necessary now more than ever.
Keep that chin up and hold your head high. You're a Minyan!
Answers I Really Wanna Know
Is there any doubt that "social stability" is a global risk?
Remember when Cisco (CSCO) earnings were the primary focus in the marketplace?
Are “uncharted waters” Chambers' new “show me economy?”
Does Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) for Goldman Sachs (GS) make sense at a point?
Particularly if Goldman has the other side of Berkshire’s derivative exposure?
What, I can’t ask the question?
If you're staring at every single tick of one particular stock, isn't that a strong sign that you're too big in the name?
T-Minus 28 days -- Have you locked your spot for our holiday trot?
Why not commingle your holiday soiree with ours and we’ll bust a move?
Is anyone else hearing that every major firm in the industry formerly known as Wall Street shut down ALL prop trading for the foreseeable future?
What was the action-traction in Yahoo (+6%) telling us yesterday?
Don't tapes that trade heavy all day (with internals 2:1 negative or worse) tend to end that way?
Or does that only apply in a "free market"?
Why is my "angst antennae" vibing so hard right now?
U2 or Coldplay?
Y’all see that triangle formation in Google (GOOG) that Professor Smita highlighted on yesterday’s Buzz?
Are you a human being or a human doing?
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
Todd Harrison
Nov 06, 2008 8:20 am
" Market goes up, market comes down. But for those with discipline, there are shekels to be had.
My goodness—writing, trading, building, growing, seeing, believing and scanning the new world order certainly takes a toll, doesn't it?
I was melding with President Fish and C.O.O. Ike yesterday about some year-end Minyan Milestones and Kevin mistakenly said "2001" instead of "2010." I turned to my best friend of 21 years and said "Time sure flies, eh?" Indeed it does.
Time, as Ruby used to say, is the most precious commodity.
I’m filming Yahoo TechTicker this morning and—wanting to respect your time—I’ll quickly share some Minyan fare as we ready for the Thursday blur. I’ll be back in the saddle before thy opening bell tolls so I’ll see YOU on the Buzz.
Following a 20% six-day lift, it's too early to tell if yesterday was a pause that refreshes or a "sell the news" reversal of fortune.
I'll simply ask Minyans to see--and respect--both sides as we together find our way.
My gut? Lower, for a trade, as a function of continued credit congestion.
There are babies in the bathwater and opportunities nestled in these obstacles.
Synchronize your time horizon with your risk profile. Big picture players shouldn’t worry about near-term noise and active day-traders need not have a macro bias.
With commodities down 45% since July—and conscious that the other side of a bubble typically means trouble—I’m inclined to focus my purchases in that space.
Why? Demand destruction and forced selling by the hedge fund community has sucked geopolitical risk premium out of the complex yet it remains a percolating possibility in an unsure world.
A snapshot of my (smaller) portfolio finds a snivlet of Yahoo (YHOO) calls (bought ‘em back yesterday morning), tag-end SPY puts (held for sale through the lens of "just trading") and my Wal-Mart (WMT) put schnitzel (with a rolling stop).
I'm not married to any of 'em—I’m in 'hit it to quit it' mode as we find our way through this freaky fray. This market is a monster but for those operating with steadfast discipline, there are shekels to be had.
It seems that every time I turn around, another person I know has left or lost a job. These are tense times and the proper perspective is necessary now more than ever.
Keep that chin up and hold your head high. You're a Minyan!
Answers I Really Wanna Know
Is there any doubt that "social stability" is a global risk?
Remember when Cisco (CSCO) earnings were the primary focus in the marketplace?
Are “uncharted waters” Chambers' new “show me economy?”
Does Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) for Goldman Sachs (GS) make sense at a point?
Particularly if Goldman has the other side of Berkshire’s derivative exposure?
What, I can’t ask the question?
If you're staring at every single tick of one particular stock, isn't that a strong sign that you're too big in the name?
T-Minus 28 days -- Have you locked your spot for our holiday trot?
Why not commingle your holiday soiree with ours and we’ll bust a move?
Is anyone else hearing that every major firm in the industry formerly known as Wall Street shut down ALL prop trading for the foreseeable future?
What was the action-traction in Yahoo (+6%) telling us yesterday?
Don't tapes that trade heavy all day (with internals 2:1 negative or worse) tend to end that way?
Or does that only apply in a "free market"?
Why is my "angst antennae" vibing so hard right now?
U2 or Coldplay?
Y’all see that triangle formation in Google (GOOG) that Professor Smita highlighted on yesterday’s Buzz?
Are you a human being or a human doing?
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
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