Inflação nos alimentos em máximos de agosto de 2023

[rnbc]

Bem... comprando Ford + GM em principio é bom negócio, porque estão desvalorizadissimas e é dúvidoso que a industria automóvel nativa acabe nos EUA, até por razões geoestratégicas e de amor à pátria americana. Caso uma falisse a outra ganharia imenso com isso.

Comprando em separado, é uma lotaria!

PS: tenciono ter em breve uma pequena parte da minha carteira alocada ao par GM+Ford, ambos do lado longo.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"I Just Don't See the Value in GM"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/3/2008 9:24 AM EST


"What is GM's (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take) stock worth? What does that $5.79 piece of paper really give you?

We trade it every day. It goes up and down 30 cents depending on bailout rumors and bailout denials. At no point does anyone say, "Wait a second, with the debt where it is, this stock is worthless." Instead people feel they have a call on the upside of mergers, bailouts or whatever else good could occur.

I think GM personifies a lot of the problems the skeptics have with this market. When I look at GM common, I question everything about this stock market. How much is the common worth of a company that should run out of money this time next year? How much is the common worth if it has to print millions more shares, maybe billions, to buy Chrysler?

And when I hear about the Chrysler deal, I hear it is because GM wants Chrysler's cash. How stupid is that? If Chrysler has a lot of cash, why does it need GM? All of this reasoning is so circular and dense that you can believe nothing about what is going to happen. In fact, the only faith I have in the whole process is that Cerberus will get whatever it needs done by anyone who will do it because somehow that giant hedge fund has huge clout in Washington. I have to believe that Cerberus is so rich and powerful and our government so for sale that the rich people behind Cerberus get out with a huge profit and everyone just yawns, because the callousness of the public grows by the hour as it accepts that the rich people have rigged the economy for their own good. Pretty much true, where I stand, after the bonuses I am hearing about from Wall Street. We are inured to greed. They will merge, the rich will do just fine.

But what about the workers? I think, how the heck would Chrysler and GM be able to merge under an Obama presidency, because it would kill the unions. Isn't it just more likely that each becomes a government enterprise like AIG? Heaven knows we have enough models these days of government enterprises. Should it be IndyMac? Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take)? AIG? Or Washington Mutual? Wachovia? Maybe there is some way that the workers and the rich people behind Cerberus make out and the shareholders of GM catch a double?

Sometimes I think, OK, maybe GM is like Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) in 1990, a $5 stock that everyone thinks is worthless except for some smart sheikh in Saudi Arabia who makes a great deal and gets super-rich off it. Maybe there is a GM sheikh out there. Or maybe the congressmen from Michigan have enough clout to lead a government takeover of GM or a merger with Chrysler that actually gives the common stock a call on a much less indebted company.

But try as I might, I cannot come up with a reason to think that this piece of paper is worth anything at all. I cannot come up with a reason GM should not file for bankruptcy other than what I hear endlessly is that such a filing it too catastrophic to be believed.

Frankly, I have seen too many catastrophes not to be believed in 2008. I know that the Lehman catastrophe was avoidable. I am figuring that the U.S. government will somehow find the possibility of giving GM billions to buy Chrysler and make Cerberus whole with the idea that GM can work its way out of it with lots of money as too politically appealing to the next president -- Paulson just rejected such a notion.

In other words -- and this is the crux of the whole issue -- everything I have ever learned about stocks tells me this common stock is worthless. But in the last three months, everything I have ever learned about stocks is worthless. So perhaps, GM's the steal of the century.

I just can't figure out a single reason why.

Random musings: Ford's (F - commentary - Cramer's Take) worse than all of these. But so what, that's a $2 lottery ticket that everyone believes in, too! ... Doug Kass is so ahead of the game on the coming private equity fallout, as the P/E guys who did retail look pretty unsteady. I wonder what school districts and pension funds bought this junk. It is sitting somewhere, and its holders will no doubt be bailed out by the federal government! As will the companies underneath! ... Kass is making really fabulous points about an implosion no one is focused on except those who read him. KKR's inability to do a deal might be the catalyst for others to focus on it. Pay attention to what he says, as it is the next shoe. "

(in www.realmoney.com)