Todd Harrison: "Scary Thoughts"
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Todd Harrison: "Scary Thoughts"
"Scary Thoughts: Isolationism and Acrimony and Deflation, Oh My!"
Todd Harrison
Oct 31, 2008 7:45 am
" You can’t make this stuff up.
2008 has been a frightening time for global financial markets as ghosts of policies past haunt the house of pain. With Halloween upon us and October almost over, I wanted to share fare that scares me as we ready for the final few months of the year.
Carnies. Circus folk. Nomads, really. They’ve got small hands and smell like cabbage.
Bubbles that take years to cumulatively build.
The other side of Our Wishbone World that could conceivably punish the savers that did the right thing.
Reactive policy makers.
Moral Hazard.
Male pattern baldness.
The emergence of isolationism that uproots the golden seeds of globalization.
Mercury Retrograde.
Martial law.
Reward chasing over risk management.
The same pundits who never saw this crisis coming are telling us when it will end.
Iran opening a naval base at the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the recent strife in Syria.
People who believe that SCREAMING makes a message more credible.
10% moves either way in a given day as a matter of course.
Mortgage rates hovering around 7% regardless of what the government says or does.
Having regrets.
Of the 37 times the S&P has rallied 6% in a single session over the last eighty years, 32 occurred between 1929 and 1933.
The reactive rationalization of most money managers.
The Raider defense.
The potential that “something serious” will happen in the Middle East while the current administration is still in office.
General Motors (GM) can go to zero and it would shed less than 100 points from the DJIA.
Societal acrimony shifting to social unrest.
The sale of firearms increasing 10% year-over-year.
My 8-year old nephew Bradley took all my chips in Texas Hold ‘em while I was trying to teach him risk management.
That the derivative-laden credit cancer is bigger than the global economic patient.
Fund managers who believe that the only thing worse than losing money is underperforming.
Currency: The Unspoken Crisis.
That China will let the Yuan trade free.
A.L.S.
A fastball by Goose Gossage in his prime.
That I lose perspective and forget the Things I’ve Learned.
Pension funds and social security.
Resistance at Apple (AAPL) $115.
Hornets.
Ignorance.
Food poisoning.
People who don’t look you in the eye when they shake your hand.
Counter-party risk.
People forget that the only difference between a mistake and lesson is the ability to learn from it.
The five pounds I’m sure to gain during this decadent holiday!
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
Todd Harrison
Oct 31, 2008 7:45 am
" You can’t make this stuff up.
2008 has been a frightening time for global financial markets as ghosts of policies past haunt the house of pain. With Halloween upon us and October almost over, I wanted to share fare that scares me as we ready for the final few months of the year.
Carnies. Circus folk. Nomads, really. They’ve got small hands and smell like cabbage.
Bubbles that take years to cumulatively build.
The other side of Our Wishbone World that could conceivably punish the savers that did the right thing.
Reactive policy makers.
Moral Hazard.
Male pattern baldness.
The emergence of isolationism that uproots the golden seeds of globalization.
Mercury Retrograde.
Martial law.
Reward chasing over risk management.
The same pundits who never saw this crisis coming are telling us when it will end.
Iran opening a naval base at the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the recent strife in Syria.
People who believe that SCREAMING makes a message more credible.
10% moves either way in a given day as a matter of course.
Mortgage rates hovering around 7% regardless of what the government says or does.
Having regrets.
Of the 37 times the S&P has rallied 6% in a single session over the last eighty years, 32 occurred between 1929 and 1933.
The reactive rationalization of most money managers.
The Raider defense.
The potential that “something serious” will happen in the Middle East while the current administration is still in office.
General Motors (GM) can go to zero and it would shed less than 100 points from the DJIA.
Societal acrimony shifting to social unrest.
The sale of firearms increasing 10% year-over-year.
My 8-year old nephew Bradley took all my chips in Texas Hold ‘em while I was trying to teach him risk management.
That the derivative-laden credit cancer is bigger than the global economic patient.
Fund managers who believe that the only thing worse than losing money is underperforming.
Currency: The Unspoken Crisis.
That China will let the Yuan trade free.
A.L.S.
A fastball by Goose Gossage in his prime.
That I lose perspective and forget the Things I’ve Learned.
Pension funds and social security.
Resistance at Apple (AAPL) $115.
Hornets.
Ignorance.
Food poisoning.
People who don’t look you in the eye when they shake your hand.
Counter-party risk.
People forget that the only difference between a mistake and lesson is the ability to learn from it.
The five pounds I’m sure to gain during this decadent holiday!
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
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