De bestial a besta? Novo Nordisk perde 80 mil milhões numa semana

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Beware This Enticing Nasdaq Opening"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/8/2008 11:41 AM EDT

"Suddenly we have gone from a situation where we think all it does is go down to the possibility that the market can actually rally.

I am playing by Nasdaq 2000 rules. I can recall a magnificent rally in the midst of April of 2000, just a wamma-jamma NDX ramp, the kind that took your breath away, and it was so enticing that you simply were drawn to it like a moth to a lightbulb.

I had said in the middle of March 2000 that I was selling stocks aggressively. But I had been unable to liquidate a lot of my really solid Nazz names, in part because I always had some inventory and in part because there were many companies that I thought were still doing well.

I used that fabulous mid-April rally to lighten up on those last names and then to short and short heavily the third-day ramp -- I figured we might have three days' worth of strength.

Well, we got the strength on day one -- it was like today's Nasdaq rally, one that could continue. I even picked at those Nazz names that I liked -- we are speaking of Seagate (STX - commentary - Cramer's Take) (old Nazz!), Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take), Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take), Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take), Brocade (BRCD - commentary - Cramer's Take), Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take), PMC-Sierra (PMCS - commentary - Cramer's Take), Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and the like -- to get a better basis.

On day two, I sold what I bought and sold what I had come in with on day one.

On day three I shorted, although I shorted into a down market. I hated that.

The Nazz then dropped a sickening 1,000 points.

It was a great trade.

It kept me in the game and allowed me to have a fabulous year.

Differences this time? Positives: We're more oversold, less hope, no bulls, vs. then. Negatives: The banking system is shaky, and confidence in our leaders has vanished.


Then as now, it always seemed that at the darkest moment some yahoos who loved tech came in with what almost seemed like a coordinated effort to prop stocks up. The funds that did it I used to call "Buzz and Batch" funds, because they were such gunners.

Needless to say, anyone who did do it and didn't sell ultimately was driven out of the business.

I used to say here, when I was at the hedge fund, that the goal was to stay in business no matter what. I must have said over and over again, you must never risk the franchise.

So many funds have risked the franchise here that their selling has the same effect as the retail selling and aggressive growth mutual fund selling that pummeled the market for more than 18 months after March of 2000. Once we got to 18 months, we began to get real opportunities to own, not trade.

But those who rode things down 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% risked the franchise.

It looks so enticing here. The oscillators, the bull/bear, everything.

However, that kind of Nazz rally at the opening reminded me so much of 2000 that I wanted to get this game plan in front of you, because despite the differences, these kind of ramps can entice and destroy, and they will do so with alacrity.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco. "

(in www.realmoney.com)