Albufeira perde 40 mil hóspedes e Lisboa estagna. Gaia é a surpresa do semestre

[Bala]

Boas!

Muito interessante a perspectiva deste senhor.

Foi uma pena o texto vir todo em bloco que até desincentiva a leitura.

De qualquer modo, agora fiquei mais confuso.

Pensava que o super-cíclo tinha acabado com o último rompimento de LTA longo prazo, mas afinal já tinha acabado em 2000, isto é, segundo este autor, o mais parecido com o 1929 foi em 2000 e o que vivemos agora é a segunda onda de um novo super-ciclo, em que na altura houve realmente uma diminuição de preço de casas, diminuição de valor de dolar e especulação nas commodities...


Abraço e bons trades...
O Bala

[Onorio]

Everyone agrees that the 1929 top ended a Supercycle, a multi-decade bull market. The DOW 30 at that time had just been expanded from a 20 stock index to 30 stocks in October 1928. Many of the 30 stocks were in high growth speculative industries, that sold at high multiples. Only three of these companies are still in the DOW and maintained their original names: GM, GE and US Steel. Between 1921-1929 the stock market experienced its greatest uninterupted bull market in history. At the beginning of the decade consumer credit was just being introduced, mass production of autos was initiated by Ford, and stock margin requirements were only 10%. Commodity prices were in a long term downtrend, housing prices had peaked at the beginning of the decade, and the USD was still 100% backed by $20.67/oz Gold. Essentially, this eight year bull market was driven by speculators looking to benefit from the newly created consumer credit economic surge. When FED monetary policy started to tighten in early 1929 the bull market began to stumble. Six months later, on September 3rd, 1929 it peaked, and one month later it crashed 23% over a two day period. After the crash a series of monetary blunders occurred, the financial community went into panic mode, and the economy and stock market collapsed. Thirty four months after the stock market peak, July 8th, 1932, the stock market bottomed after losing 89% of its value. Other assets like commodities and housing prices were caught in the deflationary spiral, but bottomed in 1931. Then when a new adminstration took office in 1933, they devalued the USD by raising the price of Gold to $35/oz. As for the stock market, the 1932 low would never be seen again as a new multi-decade Supercycle bull market began.
From an investors perspective the key points of that Supercycle top are as follows: 1. the DOW was the speculative index at the time, 2. the market experienced its longest bull market in history 8 years, 3. commodity prices and housing prices were already in long term downtrends during the bull market, 4. the bear market lasted 34 months with the DOW losing 89% of its value, and 5. the USD was devalued after the bear market, when the problems in the economy were finally addressed.
Over the next several decades, a new five Cycle wave, Supercycle bull market unfolded. The first Cycle wave was from 1932-1937. This was followed by the second Cycle wave from 1937-1942, and the third 1942-1973, and then the fourth 1973-1982. During the fifth Cycle wave the market started to experience events that were similar to the 1929-1932 bear market. The bank failures of the 1980's and the stock market crash of 1987, but these were isolated events. In fact, after the crash of 1987 the stock market surged with its longest uninterupted bull market in recorded history, thirteen years. Greatly exceeding the record eight year bull market of 1921-1929. Other isolated events occurred throughout the 1990's, but the bull market continued. During Cycle wave five a new speculative index was introduced, the Nasdaq 100. This index comprised of 100 of the fastest growing and speculative high cap stocks on the Nasdaq would eventually become the index of choice in the late 1990's. Just like the DOW was the expanded speculative index of choice in the late 1920's. While this record breaking bull market was underway other asset classes were moving in different directions. Housing was bottoming in the early 1990's, commodity prices remained in long term downtrends, and a now floating fiat currency system observed a USD decline from 1985 to 1995, while a new currency the Euro was being introduced.
When the stock market topped in the year 2000 after a thirteen year bull market, the index of choice Nasdaq tumbled. The DOW topped on January 14th, 2000. The other major indices, such as the SPX and NDX/NAZ topped a few months later. This time, however, monetary and economic stimulous were immediately addressed, unlike the 1930's. The housing market was rising and experienced only a pause in its long term uptrend, unlike the 1920's. The commodity market was still in a long term downtrend, similar to the 1920's. And the USD was in a long term uptrend. Not all asset classes were in long term downtrends like they were after the 1929 peak. All of these factors contributed to averting the depressionary effects of a Supercycle bear market like that of the early 1930's. On October 9th, 2002 the stock market bottomed. The bear market had lasted 33 months, similar to the 34 month bear market of 1929-1932. The speculative index of the day, the NDX declined 83%, similar to the speculative DOW decline of 89% during 1929-1932. Commodity prices bottomed in 2001, just like they did in 1931. Housing prices resumed their long term uptrend. And the USD began a long term decline/devaluation just like 1933. The Supercycle bull market lasted from 1932-2000, and finished its bear market in October 2002. The parallels continue.
In 2002 a new Supercycle bull market began. The first Cycle wave lasted five years, just like the first Cycle wave of the previous Supercycle which was from 1932-1937. The much maligned speculative NDX lost many of its high flying companies to bankruptcy, but still managed to retrace 37% of its bear market decline. While the speculative DOW in the 1930's stayed pretty much intact, and retraced 45% of its decline during the 1932-1937 bull market. Housing prices continued to climb until 2005, similar to their temporary climb in 1935. Commodity prices bottomed in 2001 and started a new bull market, similar to the bottom in 1931 which kicked off a bull market then as well.
When the stock market topped in 1937, ending the first Cycle wave of the new Supercycle bull market. The first leg of a five year bear market was quite intense. Short selling was blamed for the decline, and housing prices were collapsing. In 1938 the government initiated the uptick rule for short selling, and started the national mortgage program known as FNMA, a government guarantee for distressed homeowners. By the late 1930's twenty percent of homeowners were in default, and FNMA guaranteed most of those loans. After about twelve months the stock market bottomed in 1938, and had a counter-trend bear market rally for about eight months into 1939, before eventually putting in a double bottom in 1942 to end Cycle wave two. Our stock market topped in 2007 and has experienced a fairly intense decline for about twelve months. Homeowners are in substantial trouble, and a new government program has replaced FMN/FRE to address the national mortgage problem. Short selling has been banned in some degree or another several times this year, while the SEC works out a plan to address the problem.
Certainly markets are more sophisticated today than they were in the 1920's and 1930's. There are more ways to spread risk across asset classes and economies. However, the power players in this new millenium can shift large amounts of money around with lightning speed. The markets have become far more volatile as a result. Despite some of the differences, the parallels between then and now remain just too incredible to ignore. OEW analysis, over the long term, has certainly helped in the recognizing this series of parallel events. The markets reflect mass psychology, and the waves are clearly a reflection of that over time.

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