CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

With the global banking industry bleeding, with galloping inflation limiting the options of monetary authorities, with house prices showing no signs of recovery and with policy makers set to repeat the mistakes of the past, it is hardly surprising that we find it difficult to be bullish about the economic outlook.

The first stage of the credit crunch is now all but over. Forced liquidations are no longer an everyday occurrence and hence some sort of normality has returned to global markets. The big question going forward is how much damage has been inflicted on the real economy?

Over the summer, the world has gone from being quite sanguine about economic prospects to being very negative. However, the economic data points are all over the place: In Denmark, the leading financial newspaper ran with the following header yesterday: "The economy grows again - the recession has been cancelled."

You'd better get used to this sort of story. There will be several false dawns before we finally come through this crisis. And the recovery is still quite some way away. The consumer is in for another shock in a few months' time when the heating season kicks off again. We find it hard to believe in any sort of recovery until the spring of 2009 at the earliest.

On the other hand, if the economy does recover next spring, then the turnaround in global stock markets is not far away, as it usually leads the real economy by 6-9 months. Having said that, what would you rather own? Equities which currently trade at 15-20 times earnings or credit instruments trading at a fraction of that cost? Deutsche Bank has calculated that senior secured loans are now trading at an implied price earnings ratio of about 5 - less than a third of the cost of equities. There is no question that the real value is to be found in credit instruments. This is where most of the damage has been inflicted and it is where the big bargains are in today's market.

mnfv Escreveu:Explico:

amanhã e 4ª os politicos americanos estão fechados para feriado judeu e não decidem nada.

5ª deve vir fumo branco do states sobre os 700Bis?

Entrada no PSI20 5ª poderá ser fructuosa?

Lanço o debate.

(PS: para os mais leigos, o sentido do post é a discussão de ideias e não uma afirmação)

Hedge funds are struggling, 401k investors are struggling, and the economy is struggling. The financial landscape is changing and look for numerous hedge fund redemptions and possible liquidations to sprout up in the coming months. There has already been a massive outflow of cash from the hedge fund space as investors become nervous. I expect this trend to continue, and so do the hedge funds. After all, why else would they have set aside an estimated $600 billion in cash accounts to cover these outflows?

It's beyond obvious at this point, but only the strongest will survive.

tomae Escreveu:Desde quando é que a Bolsa Americana fecha por causa de Rosh Hashanah ?