CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Suttmeier’s Fearless Prediction of the Week

With or without a $700 billion Wall Street Bailout Bill the Dow Industrial Average will not end September below its 120-month simple moving average at 10,625. That will likely be delayed until the end of October. The catalyst then will be miserable third quarter earnings from community and regional banks, which will offset any positive reaction to a Bailout Bill.

Regional Banks on the Cusp of Needing a Rescue or Fail - The Great Credit Crunch was thawing until the regulators allowed Lehman Brothers to fail. Establishing a line in the sand defining “Too Big To Fail”, which excluded Lehman, seems to be the folly of the President of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner. Now we have four bigger regional banks on the cusp of needing a rescue, or fail.

ValuEngine provides a guide to predicting bank failures; Hold rated stocks are holding up, while strong sell, and sell rated banks are not. WaMu had a Strong Sell and got whammed off the map last week. Last week’s failure of WaMu was the biggest in history. On a positive note the FDIC Chair Sheila Bair handled the receivership and transfer of assets to JP Morgan at no cost to tax payers. She is probably looking for similar deals for these four:

Wachovia (WB) – Rated a strong sell with fair value at $5.70 making the stock 75.3% overvalued. It seems like Citigroup (C) is being anointed as a survivor and consolidator with Wachovia their first fire sale addition. Wachovia with $782 billion in assets has more than twice WaMu assets of $353 billion. WB has more than twice the exposure to Alt-A mortgage resets than WaMu.

National City (NCC) – Rated a sell with $151 billion in assets. This Cleveland based regional bank has loan exposures in Michigan, California and Florida.

Fifth Third Bank (FITB) – Rated a sell with fair value at $13.34 so its 21.2% overvalued. This makes this $130 billion bank on life support.

Keycorp (KEY) – Rated a strong sell with fair value at $7.38, so it’s a whopping 91.1% overvalued. How will this $98 billion bank get off life support?

Our National Debt is on the Rise – The United States debt is $9.783 trillion versus the Debt Limit of $10,615 trillion. With $5.4 trillion in Fannie and Freddie now guaranteed by the US government, and another $700 billion in toxic debt to be purchased under the “Troubled Asset Relief Program” (TARP), we might as well raise the Debt Ceiling to $16 trillion.

marianonunes Escreveu:Eu não sei porque tanta gente estava a torcer pelo colapso do sistema financeiro americano... por causa duns shorts que tinham?

Isto de certeza que não é nenhuma brincadeira e se as decisões que foram tomadas agora foram as correctas ou não, só a história o ditará. Mas a coisa era e é grave.

Eagle Eye 2002 Escreveu:Esse filme e outro... e uma tragedia de longo prazo.

O meu e uma comedia de curto prazo, nao tem nada a ver...

Um abraço,
Eagle Eye

Eagle Eye 2002 Escreveu:Esse filme e outro... e uma tragedia de longo prazo.

O meu e uma comedia de curto prazo, nao tem nada a ver...

Um abraço,
Eagle Eye

Tojo Escreveu:não percebi, desculpem

Tojo Escreveu:não percebi, desculpem

Tojo Escreveu:Desculpem a minha ignorancia, mas afinal é ou não proibido fazer short selling?