CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Boas Tardes!

Há 5 ou 6 semanas Cramer publicou um texto em que alertava de forma vigorosa (como é seu timbre!) para a possibilidade de os bancos americanos estarem a esconder a verdadeira dimensão dos seus problemas, deixando implícito que poderiam estar iminentes novidades catastróficas sobre várias instituições financeiras americanas...

Confesso que este texto me ajudou bastante a não cometer o disparate de entrar longo em nenhum banco americano, pois este texto coincidiu com a apresentação de resultados (1H) do Citigroup e da Wells Fargo que foram menos maus que o esperado. Nessa altura gerou-se, em muitos investidores, a convicção de que o pior já tinha passado e que a banca americana já tinha encontrado o seu "bottom"...
Estive tentado a entrar (longo) no Bank of America e foi Jim Cramer quem me salvou!...

Gostava de agradecer pessoalmente a Cramer todas as suas dicas, pistas e/ou conselhos, como não o posso fazer deixo aqui a sugestão aos investidores para que não deixem de ouvir as palavras deste especialista. Este sim um verdadeiro guru! É certo que às vezes também se engana (como quando previu que o dia 15 de Julho último seria o bottom de Wall Srteet), mas a verdade é que muito raramente isso acontece!

Abraço,

"I'm Waiting for the Other Shoes to Drop"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/18/2008 6:56 AM EDT

Yeah, I trust it. Sure.

That's what everyone is saying today. They see the futures and they are now conditioned to "fade" it, to go against it and just be glad to get minuscule higher prices than you could get yesterday.

I am no different. Last year when the Fed started injecting funds like crazy with the rest of the world, we had a real lift.

But there is so little confidence now that we can't possibly be comforted this time around.

The fright of yesterday, where people trusted only T-bills because anyone who had money with Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) international or owned their debt was just killed -- thanks to Dick Fuld for not taking that Korean bid -- won't go away in one day.

The notion of opportunity, of actually buying something and watching it go up, seemed to vanish. I don't think the SEC's decision to enforce an old law will cut it, and I am now repulsed by the chorus calling for the uptick rule -- even though that's my position -- because they all sound like sore losers.

What needs to happen? Time. A few days with no more bailouts. No bankruptcies. A government that issues $300 billion in bills that are so needed and then turns around and buys -- like a sovereign wealth fund -- anything that would instill confidence. Heck, the government should be selling CDS!

We don't know how much was bet against Lehman, and obviously we now know that the government was wrong not doing more with Lehman; the brinkmanship failed, and now because of mark-to-market rules that don't work right now, we have even the good ones going under.

It looks like the only real moral hazard was the destruction of the good guys.

Yes, all of this could be prevented. No, it can no longer be.

More destruction until we have none, and then I will trust the futures. "

(in www.realmoney.com)