Receitas turísticas da UE cresceram à boleia do turismo interno em 2023

[Midas]

Ui Quico se o Bernanke descobre que ainda se pode shortar nessas...

Ficam 2 artigos.

U.S. Stocks Drop as Financials Have Biggest Decline in 8 Years

By Lynn Thomasson

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending financial shares to their worst drop in eight years, after home sales slid more than forecast and investor Bill Gross predicted the housing slump will cost banks and brokerages $1 trillion.

Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. retreated and shares of builders posted their biggest decline ever as a report showed sales of previously owned homes fell to the lowest level in a decade. Ford Motor Co., the world's third-largest carmaker, plunged the most since August 2000 after reporting a loss twice as big as analysts estimated.

``I would feel very uncomfortable for the average investor to get too aggressive in financials,'' said Stephen Wood, who helps manage $213 billion as a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments in New York. The recovery in the housing market ``isn't going to be coming any time soon.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped the most since June 26, losing 29.65 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,252.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 283.1, or 2.4 percent, to 11,349.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 45.77, or 2 percent, to 2,280.11. Five stocks retreated for each that gained on the New York Stock Exchange. European shares declined as German business confidence sank, while Asian shares advanced.

Banks Tumble

Financial stocks in the S&P 500 fell 6.7 percent as a group, the third drop in the past three weeks greater than 5 percent. Today's slump follows a six-day, 30 percent rally spurred by better-than-estimated earnings reports from Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo and legislation to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The S&P 500 pared its rebound from an almost three-year low on July 15 to 3.1 percent.

Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, lost 9.8 percent to $19.06. Bank of America, the second-biggest, sank 8.4 percent to $30.64. JPMorgan, the No. 3, retreated 6.7 percent to $39.14. Goldman, the biggest securities firm, slid 4.1 percent to $180.26.

The slump in sales of previously owned U.S. homes signaled weakening consumer confidence is hurting demand. Resales dropped 2.6 percent to a lower-than-forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June last year.

Washington Mutual Slides

Washington Mutual Inc. dropped 13 percent to $4.03, bringing the stock's two-day decline to 31 percent. Gimme Credit LLC said unsecured creditors were ``pulling funds'' from the biggest U.S. savings and loan, citing a decline in federal funds purchased and commercial paper. The company fell yesterday after Piper Jaffray Cos. advised investors to sell the stock and Merrill Lynch & Co. and Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. analysts said the bank may need more capital.

Washington Mutual said in an e-mailed statement that it does all of its business through banking operations and ``does not rely on commercial paper.''

The 28 percent jump in the S&P 500 Financials Index during the five trading days ended July 22 was the biggest one-week advance for any of the S&P 500's 10 industry groups since daily calculations on the indexes began in 1989, according to Harrison, New York-based research firm Bespoke Investment Group LLC.

An S&P index of 15 homebuilders slumped 12 percent, its biggest drop ever, as 13 of its companies retreated.

Ryland Group Inc., the U.S. homebuilder for first-time buyers, tumbled 19 percent to $21.43 and led the group's decline after reporting a second-quarter loss that exceeded analysts' estimates.

A total of $5 trillion of mortgage loans belong to ``risky asset categories,'' Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.

$1 Trillion Forecast

His $1 trillion forecast implies that credit-market losses are less than halfway over. Since the start of 2007, global financial firms have reported $468.1 billion in losses and writedowns, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. Firms worldwide have raised $344.6 billion of capital since the third quarter of 2007.

``As long as housing prices go down, no one can say how much the banks are going to lose and how long it will last,'' said Charles Knott, who oversees $800 million as chief investment officer at Knott Capital Management in Exton, Pennsylvania.

The number of vacant houses hit an all-time high in the second quarter as the U.S. real estate recession pushed homeowners into foreclosure and lenders seized properties. A total of 18.6 million U.S. homes stood empty, more than at any time in history and 6.9 percent higher than a year earlier, the U.S. Census Bureau said.

Consumer Shares Slide

Homebuilders, automakers and hotel owners dragged a group of consumer stocks down 2.8 percent as oil rose from a seven-week low on speculation crude's retreat during past two weeks has been too much. Crude for September delivery added $1.05, or 0.8 percent, to $125.49 a barrel.

Ford tumbled 15 percent to $5.11. Excluding costs the company considers one-time expenses, the loss was $1.38 billion, or 62 cents a share. On that basis, Ford was expected to report a loss of 28 cents a share, the average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. fell the most since July 2002, tumbling 11 percent to $35.26. The third-largest U.S. lodging company said full-year profit may drop more than analysts estimated as consumers and businesses trim travel spending to cope with a weakened economy and higher gasoline prices.

Marriott International Inc., the biggest hotel chain, slumped 8.7 percent to $26.06.

McDonald's, AT&T

McDonald's Corp., the biggest restaurant company, lost 2.2 percent to $58.37. Deutsche Bank analysts led by Jason West cut their recommendation on the shares to ``hold'' from ``buy,'' writing that higher beef costs and fewer customer visits may reduce profitability.

AT&T Inc. led phone companies in the S&P 500 to a 3.1 percent drop after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut the largest U.S. telephone carrier to ``neutral'' from ``outperform'' on concern the company's wireline business will deteriorate. AT&T fell 4.1 percent to $31.70 for the steepest drop since February.

Amazon.com Inc. added the most since in a year, gaining 12 percent to $78.72. Second-quarter profit topped analysts' estimates after Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos promoted free shipping and lower prices to entice U.S. customers. Full-year sales may rise to as much as $20.1 billion, compared with an earlier forecast of as much as $20 billion, the company said.

A bigger-than-forecast increase in jobless claims also weighed on stocks. A government report showed the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to 406,000, the highest in almost four months, signaling the slowing economy is weakening the labor market.

`Drifting Over'

``You are starting to see a lot of the problems in the financial area drifting over into more of the real economy,'' Tobias Levkovich, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Except for Canada, all of the 23 developed nations in the MSCI World Index experienced bear-market plunges of 20 percent or more since September as credit losses increase and record commodity prices stoke inflation. Brazil today became the 23nd out of 25 developing countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to enter a bear market.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. fell the most since McDonald's sold the company to the public in January 2006, losing 20 percent to $67.30. The fast-food chain reported 0.9 percent less second- quarter profit than analysts estimated, according to Bloomberg data, amid higher costs for beef and cheese.

Qualcomm Inc. surged the most since May 2002, jumping 17 percent to $52.43. The world's biggest maker of mobile-phone chips increased its 2008 sales and profit targets and settled a patent dispute with handset maker Nokia Oyj.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 24, 2008 17:11 EDT

Sucker's Rally' in Financials Starting to Show True Colors
Posted Jul 24, 2008 05:22pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: FNM, FRE, BAC, WB, XLF

After taking a breather Wednesday, the recent rally in financials was sucking a little wind Thursday, along with the broader market.

Clearly, there's some "buy the rumor, sell the news"-type activity associated with the Treasury's plan to rescue Fannie and Freddie, as well as the overall housing bill it is a part of, which the Senate is expected to approve on Saturday.

But after the Financial SPDR (XLF) soared 31% in a five-day advance ending Tuesday, there's also a rethinking of the wisdom of long-term bets in the sector, as detailed in the Wall Street Journal's profile of David Ellison. A respected and successful financial sector fund manager, Ellison has moved his cash positions to up to 50% of his funds, which is extremely high for a fund manager.

Ellison's main point -- that nobody knows how much worse things will get for financials and/or what kind of regulatory environment they'll be living under -- echoes comments here and here from NYU's Nouriel Roubini, and was buttressed by several news items on Thursday:

* Pimco's Bill Gross believes mortgage-related losses will eventually top $1 trillion, meaning we're not yet 50% through the process as banks have taken less-than $500 billion in related losses to date.
* SEC Chairman Chistopher Cox and NY Fed President Timothy Geithner each asked for more control over Wall Street firms during a House committee hearing on the issue.
* Existing home sales dropped a larger-than-expected 2.6% in June while median home prices decline 6.1%, the fifth-largest year-over-year drop on record. Flagging sales pushed the key inventory-to-sales ratio to 11.1 months, the second highest in the past 24 years, according to AP.

[Quico]

Sempre se pode shortar.

Existem uns CFD's em alguns dos brokers manhosos do Forex, que usam o Metatrader.
Costumo manter uma conta de brincar (daquelas de carregar e descarregar via PayPal) no InstaForex. E lá deu para "shortar". Como estes brokers são desregulados, vale tudo...

Abraço.

[vold]

excelente visão Midas. amanhã espero ter a oportunidade de aproveitar uma queda do bes. gostava de ter entrado hoje, mas não estava em casa à hora do fecho do mercado. com o fecho de hoje a queda não se deverá ficar pela abertura e pela zona e estado oversold em que o petróleo negoceia (como muito bem disseste) uma inversão está para breve.

falo do bes porque neste momento é o único banco shortável. talvez arranje qualquer coisa lá pá "francia" ou alemanha

[Midas]

A C lá activou a sua Rising Wedge e já malha bem. Estou quase em casa e o que vier a seguir é lucro:) Cá para mim hoje é dia dos states cairem mais de 2% já que o Crude deverá acelerar os ganhos, já que estão a fazer uma falling wedge e na quebra irão concerteza acelerar para cima, já que está muito oversold e em zona de suporte. Esperemos portanto de um rallie hoje no petróelo e uma queda mais acentuada nos mercados americanos.

[salvadorveiga]

Então sou dos poucos shorts na C estou a ver:)

És um privilegiado Aguenta a pressão inicial, que estou realmente convicto que vai valer a pena a paciência... Vai desmoronar tudo outra vez, é só dar-lhe tempo

Tiago Deus te oiça... porque quero ir ás compras e adicionar posições a longo prazo e quanto mais baixo melhor maior margem de segurança tenho...achei estas subidas descabidas. Como disse já vi ai uns graficos de empresas a valorizarem 200% em 1 semana... acho que foi de companhias aéreas a ver se posto mais tarde...é coisa doida mesmo !

[tiagopt2]

Então sou dos poucos shorts na C estou a ver:)

És um privilegiado Aguenta a pressão inicial, que estou realmente convicto que vai valer a pena a paciência... Vai desmoronar tudo outra vez, é só dar-lhe tempo

[Midas]

Então sou dos poucos shorts na C estou a ver:)

Fica o gráfico do índice XLF que poderá estar perto de uma quedazinha ou quedazona. Como se pode ver no gráfico o sinal tem sido sempre fiável e com a vela que está a fazer...

Cá para mim quando aprovarem a "salvação" das F´s vai ser um sell on the news.

[Quico]

Atenção que colocar ordens deixa sempre. O pior é executá-las.
Experimenta dar uma ordem a preço de mercado.

[tiagopt2]

Bem, agora fiquei confuso... Então o C não fazia parte da lista de empresas que não se podem shortar desde o início da semana? Eu tentei colocar agora uma ordem curta em CFD's e o sistema permitiu-me
Qual é a parte do filme que eu estou a ver mal???

Vou responder a mim próprio
A ordem limite é colocada, mas quando atinge o valor pretendido é dada a informação que a ordem foi cancelada por não ser permitido entrar curto. No caso das ordens ao mercado, nem sequer deixa.

Estou esclarecido

[tiagopt2]

Bem, agora fiquei confuso... Então o C não fazia parte da lista de empresas que não se podem shortar desde o início da semana? Eu tentei colocar agora uma ordem curta em CFD's e o sistema permitiu-me
Qual é a parte do filme que eu estou a ver mal???

[Midas]

Quico andamos em sintonia. Pois foi limitado os shorts... o que acho uma vergonha, mas adiante. Eu por acaso na noite anterior a essa limitação consegui abrir uma posição curta no C, no dia a seguir recebi a mensagem que a partir de agora ia ser proibido. Mantenho a posição com um stop definido, no fecho diário acima dos 21.50. Até lá é deixar rolar o short... Penso que irei ter retorno em breve com esta posição. Para já perco aproximadamente 1 dólar e pouco, mas o stop está lá e estou descansado.

[salvadorveiga]

Sacanas...

[Quico]

Ó Midas! Isso não vale! Ia agora mesmo buscar o post em que falei nessa possibilidade há uns dias atrás, para postar este gráfico!

( )

Mas tenho más notícias. Ela disparou porque as autoridades limitaram (ou impediram) os shorts no Citigroup. A plataforma da LJCarregosa nem deixa shortar CFD's.

Abraço.

[salvadorveiga]

Realmente hoje tive a ver uns graficos e é ridiculo ver empresas a subirem 100% e 200% numa questão de 1 semana ou duas...

Eu ainda espero por novos minimos e um big sell off aiii simm !

[tiagopt2]

Shortava-se sim senhor, já tinha reparado nisso
Mas eles anteciparam-se, para aniquilar os malditos especuladores que querem enriquecer às custas das transparentes instituições financeiras

[Midas]

Fica o gráfico onde se pode ver uma rising wedge... e um artigo muito interessante para se verificar as mentiras e aldrabices dos responsáveis das mais altas instituições. Isto vai dar tudo mau resultado claro, estão a tentar segurar a terra com uma peneira.

You Know The Banking System's Unsound When...
1.
Paulson appears on Face the Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system were sound, everyone would know it (or at least believe it). There'd be no need to say it.

2.
Paulson says the growing number of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation." Here's the reality: There are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac wasn't one of them - until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?

3.
In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.

4.
Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier's checks. It's ironic that customers pulled insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. It's also ironic that they would then want to deposit those funds in Washington Mutual - the last place one would want to put them.

WaMu eventually decided it would take those checks, but with an 8-week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?

5.
Paulson asked for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)" just days after saying "Financial institutions must be allowed to fail." Paulson's obviously reporting from the 5th dimension; only in some alternate universe would his statements make sense.

6.
Former Fed Governor William Poole says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac losses make them insolvent.

7.
Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "essential" because they represent the only "functioning" part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only "functioning" part of the mortgage market is insolvent?

8.
Bernanke testified before Congress on monetary policy, but didn't comment on either money supply or interest rates. Nowhere in his testimony did he even mention the word "money." The only time "interest rate" appeared was in relation to consumer credit card rates. How can you have any reasonable economic policy when the Fed chairman is deathly scared of interest rates and the money supply?

9.
The SEC issued an order to protect those most responsible for naked short selling. As long as the investment banks and brokers were making money, naked shorting was fine and dandy. However, when the bears began using the tactic against the big financials, the existing regulation is suddenly selectively enforced, and with a vengeance.

10.
The Fed takes emergency actions twice during options expirations week with regard to the discount window and rate cuts.

11.
The SEC takes emergency action during options expirations week regarding short sales.

12.
The Fed has implemented an alphabet soup of pawnshop lending facilities, whereby the Fed accepts garbage as collateral in exchange for Treasury bonds. Those new Fed lending facilities are called the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).

13.
Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) all have a huge percentage of Level-3 assets. Level 3 assets are commonly known as "marked to fantasy" assets. In other words, the value of those assets is significantly if not ridiculously overvalued in comparison to what they'd fetch on the open market.

It's debatable if any of the above firms will survive in their present form. Some may not survive in any form.

14.
Bernanke openly solicits private equity firms to invest in banks. Is it even remotely normal for a Fed Chairman to undertake such an action?

15.
Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan (JPM) days after assuring investors that it had plenty of capital. Fears are high that Lehman will suffer the same fate. Worse still, the Fed w3as forced to guarantee the shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan by providing as much as $30 billion in capital. JPMorgan is responsible for only the first $500 million. Taxpayers are on the hook for the rest.

Was this a legal action for the Fed to take? Does the Fed care?

16.
Citigroup needed a cash injection from Abu Dhabi and a second one from elsewhere. After announcing it wouldn't need more capital, it's raising still more. The latest news: Citigroup will sell $500 billion in assets. To who? At what price?

17.
Merrill Lynch raised $6.6 billion in capital from Kuwait and Japan, announced it didn't need to raise anymore - then raised still more capital just a few weeks later.

18.
Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% equity stake to China International. CEO John Mack made a show of not taking his bonus. How generous. Morgan Stanley fell from $72 to $37. Does CEO John Mack deserve a paycheck at all?

19.
Bank of America agreed to take over Countywide Financial and twice insisted that Countrywide will add profits. Inquiring minds ask: "How the hell can Countrywide add to Bank of America earnings?" Here's how: Bank of America just announced it won't guarantee $38.1 billion in Countrywide debt. Questions over "fraudulent conveyance" are now surfacing.

20.
Washington Mutual agreed to a death spiral cash infusion of $7 billion and accepted an offer of $7.85 when the stock was over $13. WaMu has since plummeted from $40 to a price near $5 after a huge rally.

21.
Shares of Ambac (ABK) fell from $90 to $2.50. Shared of MBIA (MBI) fell from $70 to $5. Sadly, the top three rating agencies kept their rating on the pair at AAA nearly all the way down.

No one can believe anything the government sponsored rating agencies say.

22.
In a set of moves that looked like panic, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. This was the fastest, steepest drop on record. Ironically, Bernanke spoke of inflation concerns the whole way down. The Chairman is clearly unable to tell the truth. He doesn't have to - actions speak louder than words.

23.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.

24.
There's roughly $6.84 trillion in bank deposits, of which $2.60 trillion is uninsured. There's only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 trillion in bank deposits. Indymac alone will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.

25.
Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where's the rest of the loot? The answer is: In off-balance-sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds (where, amazingly, debt's paid back with more debt) and in all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30 to 1 or more. Those loans can't be paid back.

And what can't be paid back will be defaulted on. If you didn't know it before, you do now: The entire US banking system is insolvent.

Em que planeta um banco com os prejuízos por exemplo da Merril ou uma Wachovia.. valorizam mais de 100% em poucos dias? Empresas insolventes mais que duplicam o valor também em poucos dias como o caso da Fannie e freddie? E com isto tudo o índice até nem subiu muito. Por estas e por outras é que o país onde estão maioritariamente os problemas tem um índice principal a cair apenas 12% no ano enquanto outros como os europeus caem mais do dobro... Uns têm o PPT outros não