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[rosso]

O anti-Cramer volta a atacar. Desta vez não tem tanta piada...

http://208.65.153.251/watch?v=Ep9RwixHFgk

Embora o tipo dedique alguma parte do seu tempo a atacar as incoerências do Cramer e os "Cheerleaders" da CNBC, ele leva a coisa a sério e tem falado muito dos problemas reais que afectam a economia e mercados americanos.
Embora eu discorde dalgumas teorias dele (quer que acabem com o FED, acha que os bancos estão a empolar a situação, etc) ele tem o mérito de ter identificado grande parte dos problemas e de indicar a descida do mercado há muito tempo.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Não sei. Sei que ele tem defendido que o Governo não tem um plano para esta crise. Que tem tomado medidas avulsas quando deveria ter um plano mais abrangente.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[vold]

Ulisses o que é que o cramar quer dizer no fim?

que não seria só um squeeze com uma ajuda de Washington e medidas para solucionar os maus empréstimos ?

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Just a Squeeze -- at Least for Now"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
7/17/2008 6:54 AM EDT


"If I were at Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), today would be a day where I issued several billion in preferred stock or I issued a multibillion equity offering. Why? Because the deed is done; the shorts panicked and covered and took the stock up where it could now be worth doing a deal.




If things are so great at WFC, why do they have to do a deal? Simple: They have a big increase in nonperformers, and when you have a big increase in nonperformers ,you raise capital. Period.

Yesterday's relief rally was not about housing prices bottoming -- I think that will happen next year, not this year -- it was about getting the shorts. The shorts had had their way all over everything. Suddenly you get this surprise smackdown by Chris Cox of the so-called naked shorts -- it's really not at all about that if these stocks aren't hard to borrow -- and you get a dividend boost, something that shorts don't like to pay.

I think today's "upside surprise" from JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) will generate more short-covering. So will Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) when it declares its dividend.

Which it will.

Both quarters are good enough to attract more capital. If I were in a shaky California bank like Downey (DSL - commentary - Cramer's Take), I would pull my money out and put it in Wells. I might do the same with a shaky bank in the East, and choose JPMorgan. I am glad I keep my money there, for heaven's sake.

But none of this cures what was a problem for both banks: house price depreciation. Without something that makes it so there are fewer foreclosures and without a mortgage trust to take the bad mortgages off people's hands, all the good banks can do in this environment is beat the shorts up enough to have their stocks rally so they can raise money for the next wave of nonperforming loans to hit their books. They will have to raise capital until those bad loans crest, and they can't crest as long as house prices keeps coming down.

So enjoy the squeeze, but remember it is only not a squeeze when we get a relief bill from Washington and a way to crest nonperformers and neither JPM nor WFC has produced it. "

(in www.realmoney.com)