Reformas no Estado em máximos da troika

[Eagle Eye 2002]

A verificar-se o cenario de 2001, eu estava convencido que ainda nao tinhamos chegado à primavera... estariamos antes na fase do rally de inicio do ano. E esse foi bem de 10%!

O que quereria dizer que os minimos de março 2001 ainda nao estariam feitos em 2008...

Mas a analise da Helen Meisler e excelente. E ela tenta valida-la com imensos indicadores. E uma excelente demonstraçao.

Mas porra, ela bem podia ter ido dar uma vista de olhos tb ao VIX
O meu problema e que o VIX nao a desmente... mas tb nao confirma a argumentaçao dela. E o VIX começa a desviar-se bastante do cenario de janeiro 2001...

Começo a achar que nem inicio nem meados de 2001. Agora que os niveis de complacencia estao elevados, la isso nao ha duvida.

Um abraço, Eagle Eye

[Ulisses Pereira]

Não. Ele gosta de meter uns dias de férias.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[SirPatrickBateman]

Fantástico!!!

Estas comparações valem o que valem... mas gostei muito do texto...

Não há nada "fresquinho" do Todd por aí?

[J.Smith]

Muito bom texto, obrigado pelo artigo Ulisses.

Um abraço

J.Smith

[Ulisses Pereira]

"2001: An S&P Odyssey"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/27/2008 7:44 AM EDT


"I have been writing for almost a month now about an impending correction. Again on Friday, even after an awful decline in the market last week, I still called it a correction.

Over the weekend, however, I realized I'd seen this chart of the S&P before. I searched a bit and found that the last time we had a similar chart pattern was spring of 2001.

Now before you gulp the way I did when I first saw the similarities on the charts below, let me say that many of the indicators I follow do not have the same pattern shape. The Oscillator doesn't look the same, the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line doesn't look the same. The McClellan Summation Index doesn't look the same.

In addition, if we use percentage terms, the rally from the lows in spring of '01 to the highs was just over 20% on the S&P. The recent rally was in the 10% area. However, the points are about the same: approximately 200 S&P points.

Then there's the time frame. We broke down from the top in February 2001. This time is was January. We made a low in late March and retested it in early April in 2001. this time we made the low in mid-March and retested it in late March.

In 2001, we made the high on May 21. This time (so far) it was May 19.


OK, so big deal, the pattern is similar, the dates are fairly similar but the indicators are not the same. Let me clarify that point. The indicators all rolled over back then, as they are now, but this time we had a lower high in the Oscillator that came on a higher high in the S&P. In 2001, the Oscillator made a higher high right along with the S&P.

In 2001, the McClellan Summation Index did not turn down until June, this time it has turned down already. The 30-day moving average of the a/d line in 2001 peaked along with the S&P; this time it peaked before.

So the difference is not that the indicators aren't rolling over, the difference is that this time they warned us of the market's trouble; back then, they didn't.

Now let's look at a close-up view of the S&P from then. On Friday, I suggested we might see a rally to give us a head-and-shoulders top in the S&P. You can see on the chart below that is exactly what happened in the spring of 2001


I have also been discussing that I believed unless we got a reading in the Investors Intelligence survey of something in the mid- to high 50% area, we hadn't converted that many bears to bulls. Well, it turns out that the 20% rally in 2001 pushed bullishness to only 50%, and that was it. This time we've gotten to 47%. So there goes my theory of needing more than 50%.


But it's the bearish percentages I found fascinating. The lows in the spring of 2001 found 42% bears. This time we found 44%. The rally into May 2001 found a rather paltry move in the bears to 35%. This time we find a move to 31%.

But here's what is most fascinating to me: We declined about 10% from that May high in 2001, and the bears kept on shrinking! They continued to shrink right into the July low when they were around 23%. So perhaps they were looking at all those indicators I mentioned above and waiting for those divergences that never arrived? Whatever the reason, they did not turn bearish, at least not by this measure in that decline off the May highs.

That rally you see in July of 2001 was all we got that summer. As I'm sure you know by now, that summer culminated in the horrific tragedy of Sept. 11, after which the S&P plunged to 965.

There was something else that I noticed from the spring and summer of 2001 -- the Transports. As I'm sure you are aware, the Trannies are doing just fine now. In fact, everyone is so focused on the Terrific Trannies in the face of high oil that a few are even baffled by it. Check out a chart of the Trannies from 2001.




Did they look like they were in trouble that summer? Heck no! They look like that swoon in late June was a retest (circled in red) of the spring lows! Look at how they zoomed up in the summer of 2001. It wasn't until the tragedy of Sept. 11 that the Trannies crashed.

So in sum, I am now going to have to watch sentiment very closely. Wednesday and Thursday felt as though too many jumped into the bear camp too quickly for me, but I see that Friday's action hasn't caused any panic. Panic -- or at least a high degree of nervousness -- would be good; complacency would be bad.

Let's see how fast those Investors Intelligence readings move now. Let's see if we can get the Index put/call ratio up into the 200s (160% on Friday). Let's see if we can get the equity put/call ratio up in the 90s (so far it's at a too-low 71%).

For the week ahead, I expect we'll be oversold by about midweek, so let's see what kind of rally they can muster from that oversoldness. But I know I'll now be watching this comparison closely with a keen eye on sentiment.

(in www.realmoney.com)