Todd Harrison: "Random Thoughts: Of Banks and Bears&quo
Enviado: 10/3/2008 19:02"Random Thoughts: Of Banks and Bears"
Todd Harrison
Mar 10, 2008 1:14 pm
" Possible counter-trend rally ahead.
I picked up a few stories this morning that Professor Bennet Sedacca’s morning article contributed to the weakness in the financial complex.
Let me be very clear--this story is nothing new. In fact, we first discussed the potential balance sheet woes five months and 40% ago.
And that’s after we sniffed out issues while the banks and brokers were trading near all-time highs last summer.
I still believe there are issues in the financial complex and it’s my opinion that long-term investors can use higher prices as an opportunity to lighten up. With that said, this type of loud chatter typically precedes sharp counter-trend trading rallies.
Can you imagine how much the oak trees must have taught him?
While technical analysis more of a context than a catalyst, the January lows—S&P 1310, INDU 12,000 and BKX 77.80—have now morphed from support to near-term resistance.
The ability not to trade is as important as trading ability. I'm reminded of that fact as we shake off a daylight savings edition of the Mondays.
Does anyone else miss football already? I mean, really miss football?
My sense is that there's a counter-trend rally in the cards. What I've yet to resolve is whether it requires a sloppy session before Turnaround Tuesday arrives.
Standing out in the crimson tide are the consumer non-durables, which is a long time coming should one of my ten themes pan out in 2008. I've dipped my wick into some Schering Plough (SGP) out-month calls in an attempt to use prices to my advantage.
I have, in the interest of full disclosure, dipped a pair of pinky toes in Google (GOOG) and Morgan Stanley (MS) for a trade into this latest slippage. Just trading, so you know, and doing so with discipline.
Sell hope, buy despair.
Lest you had any question regarding where Big Ben stands in the "hyperinflation vs. deflation" debate...
Answers I Really Wanna Know…
Remember those takeover rumors in Bear Stearns (BSC) and the "Warren Buffett is taking a stake in Hovnanian (HOV)" chatter?
Have we effectively learned some valuable lessons in that?
Do you see crude approaching Professor Adam Michael's $110 level?
Y'all see Ambak (ABK) down another 20%?
Despite promises of a prearranged marriage?
Have you had a chance to vibe to David Gilmour at the Royal Albert Hall?
At what levels will Fannie and Freddie be nationalized?
The VXO is flattish.
Are we having fun yet? "
(in www.minyanville.com)
Todd Harrison
Mar 10, 2008 1:14 pm
" Possible counter-trend rally ahead.
I picked up a few stories this morning that Professor Bennet Sedacca’s morning article contributed to the weakness in the financial complex.
Let me be very clear--this story is nothing new. In fact, we first discussed the potential balance sheet woes five months and 40% ago.
And that’s after we sniffed out issues while the banks and brokers were trading near all-time highs last summer.
I still believe there are issues in the financial complex and it’s my opinion that long-term investors can use higher prices as an opportunity to lighten up. With that said, this type of loud chatter typically precedes sharp counter-trend trading rallies.
Can you imagine how much the oak trees must have taught him?
While technical analysis more of a context than a catalyst, the January lows—S&P 1310, INDU 12,000 and BKX 77.80—have now morphed from support to near-term resistance.
The ability not to trade is as important as trading ability. I'm reminded of that fact as we shake off a daylight savings edition of the Mondays.
Does anyone else miss football already? I mean, really miss football?
My sense is that there's a counter-trend rally in the cards. What I've yet to resolve is whether it requires a sloppy session before Turnaround Tuesday arrives.
Standing out in the crimson tide are the consumer non-durables, which is a long time coming should one of my ten themes pan out in 2008. I've dipped my wick into some Schering Plough (SGP) out-month calls in an attempt to use prices to my advantage.
I have, in the interest of full disclosure, dipped a pair of pinky toes in Google (GOOG) and Morgan Stanley (MS) for a trade into this latest slippage. Just trading, so you know, and doing so with discipline.
Sell hope, buy despair.
Lest you had any question regarding where Big Ben stands in the "hyperinflation vs. deflation" debate...
Answers I Really Wanna Know…
Remember those takeover rumors in Bear Stearns (BSC) and the "Warren Buffett is taking a stake in Hovnanian (HOV)" chatter?
Have we effectively learned some valuable lessons in that?
Do you see crude approaching Professor Adam Michael's $110 level?
Y'all see Ambak (ABK) down another 20%?
Despite promises of a prearranged marriage?
Have you had a chance to vibe to David Gilmour at the Royal Albert Hall?
At what levels will Fannie and Freddie be nationalized?
The VXO is flattish.
Are we having fun yet? "
(in www.minyanville.com)