CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

michael, não leio o Cramer há uns meses. Leio-o desde 1998, já lá vão 10 anos. Por isso, assisti a grandes análises dele, a más análises, a previsões acertadas a previsões completamente falhadas.

Gosto muito do raciocínio claro dele e da forma como não tem medo de se expor. Ele, o Todd Harrison, o Herb Greenberg, o Nichols, o Gary B. Smith e o Tero Kuitinen são aqueles que mais gosto de ler sobre os mercados. Acertam sempre? Claro que não! Falham muitas vezes como todos os bons "traders" e analistas. Mas fazem-nos pensar quando lemos os seus argumentos e concordamos ou discordamos.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Não percebo porque ligam ao que este homem diz, quer o Ulisses quer o The Mechanic, que são pessoas que tenho em alta estima. A sério que não percebo, este homem parece-me o derradeiro bobo da corte. Será que lêem/ouvem o sr. por entretenimento?

Failures são as previsões desse senhor.

1. GS - finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction—an inevitability. In fact, it’s only January, and I think it’s already come true. - Está a 180 e perde 16% YTD

2. Oil goes much higher, maybe as much as $125 a barrel - Começou o ano nos 97, está a 93,40.

3. The Fed arranges an Arabic Heimlich maneuver on Citigroup (C), - Acertou!

6. Google stock reaches $1,000 (Está só a 528 a perder 24% YTD). ...succesfully challenges Microsoft (MSFT) for operating-system dominance - O QUÊ???

8. Apple (AAPL), he predicts, will reach $300. - Está a 128,8$, perde apenas 35% YTD - Warner Music Group (WMG) will file for bankruptcy. - O QUÊ???

As previsões estão aqui.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/58745-j ... s-for-2008
Só pus as relacionadas com acções, não os acontecimentos tipo "Protesto à porta do Fed que ia levar à demissão de Bernanke e consequente rebound dos mercados"

Lembra-me este Sr.

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"No One Wants It, But We Need Some Failures"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
2/13/2008 8:16 AM EST



"MGIC (MTG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) reports a hideous, monster loss and what happens? It issues a statement saying it has "adequate capital to meet its claim obligations" and that there have been "significant improvements to the company's business fundamentals." This despite recognizing that it cannot make money in 2008.

IndyMac (IMB - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) says yesterday that it has all the capital in the world despite a monumental quarterly loss and a suspension of dividend, It, too, has oodles of capital.

Both companies, the Alt-A bank of IndyMac and the mortgage insurer MGIC, have non-performing loan numbers that would make me wonder how the heck they can stay in business. But things are going swimmingly, they both say.

This stuff is amazing to me. In 1990, both of these companies wouldn't have a dime of funding and would be annihilated, gone, bankrupt. No way they could make it.

But in this environment, nobody fails, nobody merges, capital is always there.

That's one of the huge differences between this market and markets past. Nobody runs out of money. The stocks go down in value but the companies persist, and because they do, only the non-publics in this business seem to cease operations. I mean you can still hit up NovaStar (NOVS - commentary - Cramer's Take), and something comes up.

No one wants failures. No one, other than the shorts, wants IndyMac and MGIC to fail. But unless we get some failures, unless nobody steps up like Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) did with Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) (oh, come on Bill Miller at Legg Mason, what are you suddenly, an arb?), the Fed will not feel the pain it needs to to cut rates to where they have to be.

Random musings: A couple of terrific reports -- Coke (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which was amazing albeit aided by dollar weakness big-time; and First Solar (FSLR - commentary - Cramer's Take), which just doesn't stop delivering. Remarkable. "

(in www.realmoney.com)