Gouveia e Melo continua a perder terreno

[acintra]

31/01/2008


As principais bolsas dos Estados Unidos terminaram a subir, poupando o índice Standard & Poor-s 500 ao seu pior mês de Janeiro de sempre, depois de a maior seguradora mundial de emissões obrigacionistas ter anunciado que espera manter o seu "rating" de crédito AAA. No entanto, a agência de notação financeira S&P não trouxe boas notícias perto do final da sessão.

O Dow Jones [indu] fechou a ganhar 1,62%, fixando-se nos 12.644,26 pontos. O S&P 500 [spx] encerrou a subir 1,63%, nos 1.377,96 pontos. O índice compósito Nasdaq [ccmp] terminou a marcar 2.389,86 pontos, com uma valorização de 1,74%.

Os índices norte-americanos de referência inverteram a tendência generalizadamente negativa da sessão depois de as declarações do CEO da MBIA , Gary Dunton, terem dado origem a uma valorização dos títulos da banca.

No entanto, apesar de estarem a ganhar mais de 2% perto do fecho da sessão, as principais bolsas acabaram por anular alguns dos ganhos e fechar com uma menor valorização, devido a alguns anúncios menos favoráveis por parte da agência de notação financeira S&P.

Com efeito, a S&P colocou em vigilância negativa a MBIA e a XLCA, e cortou de AAA para AA o "rating" da quarta maior seguradora mundial de emissões obrigacionistas, a Financial Guaranty Insurance. Desde pelo menos 1984 que a Financial mantinha o AAA por parte da S&P.

A Target e a Home Depot ganharam terreno, liderando o sector do retalho, depois de o Deutsche Bank terem dito que os consumidores vão gastar mais dinheiro agora que as taxas de juro baixaram nos EUA.

[acintra]

Stocks rally on the last day of January for a miserable start to 2008.
January 31 2008: 4:17 PM EST



Expect to take a hit on money market interest rates, but some of your debt will be easier to carry.


Is now the time to buy stocks?
Yes, if you invest in quality companies and plan to hold your position.Yes, if you watch the markets closely and can quickly close out your position.No, we haven't reached a bottom yet. or View results

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street rallied Thursday, ending a miserable January on a high note, after comments from bond insurer MBIA helped temper worries that a meltdown in that sector was the next leg of the credit market fallout.

According to early tallies, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index both added more than 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 1.7 percent. The Russell 2000 (RUT.X) small-cap index added 2.5 percent.

After the close, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reported quarterly sales and earnings that were short of forecasts, sending shares lower in extended-hours trading.

Stocks had slipped Thursday morning after MBIA's big quarterly loss exacerbated worries that the fallout for bond insurers could be the next leg of the credit market crisis.

But MBIA (MBI) stock erased losses and turned higher after the company's CEO said on its conference call that while it will see big losses this year, it has the resources it needs to maintain its current financial strength rating.

That turnaround added fuel to a recovery in the financial sector already underway, which in turn helped the broader market recover.

"A lot of things were reversing already, and then MBIA came out and defended themselves a little," said Steven Goldman, market analyst at Weeden & Co.

He said that the market backdrop has improved vastly in the last week and a half. It has improved on a technical level, with indications that the selloff has hit a bottom, he said. It has improved in terms of valuations, with some stocks and sectors becoming less expensive relative to earnings because of the selloff. It has also improved because of the two big Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Goldman said.

"In general, things are improving, but we are still going to need time to work through all of this," he said. In other words, volatility isn't going to disappear anytime soon.

Sectors that have led the retreat were among those leading a recovery Thursday, including homebuilders, retailers and financials.

"The market psychology is beginning to improve," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.

Fear! Panic! Time to buy
Stocks ended lower Wednesday, erasing gains sparked by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the fed funds rate, a key short-term interest rate, by a half-percentage point. It was the second rate cut in a little over a week, with the central bank attempting to give support to the slowing economy and keep money flowing through the system.

The advance had lost steam on market rumors that one of the major bond insurers was likely to be downgraded. It was announced later that Fitch had cut privately-owned bond insurer FGIC Group's financial strength rating.

Lowering an insurer's rating makes it harder for the company to get new business, potentially weakens the value of hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds and adds a strain of uncertainty to already shaky financial markets. (Full story).

Economic news. Investors also eyed a surprise jump in weekly jobless claims Thursday ahead of Friday's more closely-watched Jan. employment report. In other economic news, Dec. personal income and spending both rose more than expected, while the report's inflation component rose 0.2 percent, in line with forecasts.

Another report, the Chicago PMI, dipped more than expected in January, suggesting further erosion in manufacturing in the Midwest region.

Bond insurers: Between a rock and a hard place
Earnings. After the close Wednesday, Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates on higher revenue that topped estimates. The company also forecast slower operating margins in 2008. Shares gained on Thursday.

Also late Wednesday, Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly profit that topped estimates, but also said that it will open less new U.S. stores in 2008 and close some underperforming ones amid the consumer spending slowdown. Shares slipped Thursday. (Full story).

In other news, Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) said Thursday afternoon that it is cutting 10 percent of its workforce, or about 500 jobs, due to the weak economy. The stock showed little reaction, holding on to gains accrued before the announcement.

28 out of 30 Dow components rose, led by American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers 3 to 1 as 2.19 billion shares changed hands. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 2 to 1 on volume of 2.87 billion shares.

Other markets. Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.6% from 3.68% late Wednesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In currency trading, the dollar gained modestly versus the yen and slipped versus the euro.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery fell 58 cents to settle at $91.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $1.70 to $928 an ounce.

The January barometer
Regardless of Thursday's gains, it has been by all accounts a miserable January. Stocks have been extremely volatile and predominantly weaker on fears that the economy is in a recession or is heading toward one amid the housing and credit market crises.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow had fallen 6.2% year-to-date, the S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% and the Nasdaq had fallen 11.4%, meaning the major gauges had erased all of 2007's advance and then some in less than a month.

How bad is that historically? It depends. If the month had ended with Thursday's close, it would be the S&P's worst January performance since before the Great Depression, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. If the month were to end where the market stands at 3:30 p.m. ET Thursday, it would still be the S&P 500's worst January since 1990, when it fell 6.9%. In 1990, the S&P 500 posted declines of 6.6% for the year.

As the S&P goes in January, so goes the year. According to the Almanac, this theory has proven true 91% of the time since 1950. If you factor in flat years, which is how the Almanac counts years where the change was plus or minus 5 percent, the stat is accurate 75% of the time.

The trend is particularly true when January is a down month. According to the Almanac, every negative January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market or a flat year.

The stat works partly because January is such a pivotal month. New Congresses meet. A new president is inaugurated. A sitting president gives the State of the Union address. The year's budget is set.

What complicates the stat is that 2008 is an election year, which tends to be an up year, according to the market historians. That's because in an election year, the party in power typically does what it can to goose the economy and stay in power. Going back to Theodore Roosevelt in 1905, the Almanac found that 17 of the last 25 election years were up years for the Dow.