CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Subprime losses could rise to $400bn
By David Pilling and Jonathan Soble in Tokyo and Gillian Tett in London

Published: February 10 2008 19:35 | Last updated: February 10 2008 19:35

Senior global policymakers have raised projections for the size of subprime-related credit losses in a move that implies financial institutions will have to increase write-offs.

Speaking after the meeting of Group of Seven finance leaders, Peer Steinbrück, German finance minister, said the G7 now feared that write-offs of losses on securities linked to US subprime mortgages could reach $400bn.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
IMF chief backs crisis alert calls - Feb-10G7 finance chiefs wary of overreaction - Feb-08Lex: Company analysis in a downturn - Jan-16UN warns of threat to world economy - Jan-09G7 leaders say world economy vulnerable - Feb-09Martin Wolf: Challenges for the world economy - Jan-09This is sharply higher than the $120bn credit losses that Wall Street banks and other institutions have revealed in recent weeks – and also far bigger than the US Federal Reserve’s estimates for subprime losses last year of $100bn-$150bn.

But G7 finance ministers admitted that it remained unclear where much of this subprime pain would eventually emerge, not least because the path of the credit crunch was still uncertain. Mr Steinbrück and other ministers appealed to financial institutions to provide “prompt and full disclosure’’ of losses, to restore confidence.

“The next 10 days to two weeks will be crucial because we are going to have the first audited accounts [from financial institutions] since the crisis started,” added Mario Draghi, governor of the Bank of Italy and chair of the Financial Stability Forum, a committee of international supervisors and central bankers.

Mr Draghi said regulators were ready to force banks to reveal their losses and replenish their equity ratios. He did not rule out the possibility that governments might eventually need to inject capital into banks, although he stressed that market solutions should take precedence.

The comments followed a weekend of G7 talks that were dominated by the credit turmoil and the implications of these problems for the global economy.

The finance ministers said they stood braced for individual and collective action to ensure financial stability and avoid recession. They conceded that growth was likely to slow in all their economies, since the world was facing what Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, called a “challenging and uncertain environment”, due to tighter credit, a deterioration of the US housing market, higher oil prices and rising inflation.

But Mr Paulson said he believed the US stood a good chance of avoiding recession. “I believe that we are going to keep growing. If you are growing, you are not in recession, right?”

He said the G7 discussion focused on “how we minimise the spillover that is going on in the capital markets into the broader economy”.

He said he was not disappointed that Japan and European countries had rejected the idea, floated by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, International Monetary Fund head, for joint efforts to stimulate their economies by fiscal packages. He implied that other countries would not escape a US downturn, describing decoupling as a “myth”.

IMF chief backs crisis alert calls
By David Pilling in Tokyo

Published: February 10 2008 19:26 | Last updated: February 10 2008 19:26

The International Monetary Fund can play only a limited – largely analytical – role in spotting brewing financial crises, according to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the fund’s managing director.

His remarks came as G7 finance ministers, meeting in Tokyo, instructed the IMF to work more closely with the Financial Stability Forum and jointly report on “identifying potential vulnerabilities and enhancing early warning systems”.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
G7 finance chiefs wary of overreaction - Feb-08Lex: Company analysis in a downturn - Jan-16UN warns of threat to world economy - Jan-09G7 leaders say world economy vulnerable - Feb-09Martin Wolf: Challenges for the world economy - Jan-09Video interview: Haruhiko Kuroda defends ADB transparency - Jan-15The IMF was in a much better position than the thinly resourced FSF to monitor, and possibly prevent, emerging crises in global finance, officials said.

But Mr Strauss-Kahn, speaking to journalists, said: “My opinion is that the specific work to be done by the IMF is mainly in the analysis of linkages between the financial sector and the real sector . . . but obviously the G7 ministers want the IMF to do more than that.”

Defending the IMF’s record, he said a year ago it had identified US subprime lending as a potential flashpoint. But it  was “probably correct to say that the IMF was not vocal enough”.

He was trying to refocus the fund on its “core business of surveillance”. But today’s financial crises were much harder to read than when trade was the main linkage between countries, and economic vulnerabilities quickly showed up in current-account deficits.

Now imbalances could spread through diverse channels, he said, pointing to worldwide falls in asset prices. “Today the linkages are much more complicated. This has to be clearly identified and early warning is absolutely necessary.” On fiscal stimulus, he defended his call for more co-ordinated action despite the cool response at the G7, where ministers stressed their different economic positions. While it was right that countries “were masters of their own policy”, he felt economies representing 20-25 per cent of global GDP – on top of the US’s 22 per cent – “had some room to do something” on the fiscal side.

“It will need some co-ordinated action,” he said, adding that the process was just beginning. “It will be a long way before we have this idea accepted by everybody: that what is good for one country can be good for the world economy.” He was seeking a “correct policy mix . . . a targeted, timely and temporary fiscal response”.

Mr Strauss-Kahn pointed to China, as well as oil and commodity exporters, as economies that could afford to encourage more domestic demand.

iurp Escreveu:A questão da ordem do dia julgo que poderá ser não tanto o bull ou o bear market, mas a extensão da crise das economias e como reagirão os mercados à cada vez maior assumpcão dessa crise.

G7 leaders say world economy vulnerable
By David Pilling and Jonathan Soble in Tokyo

Published: February 9 2008 13:47 | Last updated: February 9 2008 13:47

The world economy remains vulnerable to downside risks stemming from tighter credit, a deterioration of the US housing market, higher oil prices and rising inflation, according to G7 finance ministers gathering in Tokyo on Saturday.

Although “long-term fundamentals remain sound” and recession in the US and elsewhere could be avoided, according to the final communiqué, the world’s richest nations said they stood ready to “take appropriate actions, individually and collectively, in order to secure stability and growth”.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
G7 finance chiefs wary of overreaction - Feb-08Lex: Company analysis in a downturn - Jan-16UN warns of threat to world economy - Jan-09Martin Wolf: Challenges for the world economy - Jan-09Video interview: Haruhiko Kuroda defends ADB transparency - Jan-15Living standards set to suffer strain - Jan-15Finance ministers also called on OPEC and other oil-producing nations to “raise production”, saying that the “recent surge” in prices, which briefly broke through $100 a barrel, was stoking inflation and complicating the response of economies already reeling from problems related to sub-prime loans.

Henry Paulson, US treasury secretary, said that “current financial turmoil is serious and persisting”, adding that discussion focused on how problems in the capital markets were spreading to the real economy. He expected the US would continue to grow and avoid recession, though he conceded there were risks to that scenario. Finance ministers predicted continued robust growth in emerging economies, but said it would be slower.

Mr Paulson said discussion had focused on “how we minimise the spillover that is going on the in capital markets into the broader economy.” He said he was not disappointed that Japan and European countries had rejected the idea, floated by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, for joint efforts to stimulate their economies through emergency fiscal packages. “That had never even occurred to me,” he said. “Every economy is different.”

Japan, the host country, was keen to scotch any idea that it should reverse its policy of fiscal consolidation. Toshihiko Fukui, Bank of Japan governor, said: “If everyone does the same thing it won’t be any more effective. Each country needs to do what is best for its own particular situation.”

However, in terms of regulation, Mario Draghi, governor of the Bank of Italy and chairman of the Financial Stability Forum, said there should be a coordinated response. “If it is not done together it will undermine the level playing field.”

The Financial Stability Forum presented an interim report on recent market turmoil in which it recommended strengthening management of liquidity risks, addressing conflicts of interest at ratings agencies and improving investors’ awareness about the risks of structured products. The IMF was asked to work closer with the Stability Forum on developing early warning systems.

Mr Draghi suggested that financial market deregulation was partly to blame for the crisis. He cited a 1998 rule change in the US that allowed so-called monoline insurers to expand beyond their specialty business of insuring municipal bonds to take on complex structured products. “That is the sort of thing we need to look at,” he said.

Finance ministers called for “prompt and full disclosure by financial institutions of their losses and of valuation of structured products.”

Mr Paulson urged banks to recapitalise as soon as they could and avoid the risk that, by shrinking their balance sheets, they would deprive economies of credit. As banks look to the sovereign wealth funds of oil-rich nations for capital, he said the US remained open to foreign investment.

He called for a reasoned response to sovereign wealth funds, adding that countries should remain vigilant against protectionist sentiment.

The communiqué played down the issue of currencies, while officials said there was minimal discussion of the falling dollar.

G7 ministers reiterated their call for China to revalue faster, saying: “We welcome China’s decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising current account surplus and domestic inflation, we encourage accelerated appreciation of its effective exchange rate.”

Silverwolf Escreveu:Quem me consegue explicar porque depois de um fecho de US como tivemos o NIKKEI comece vermelho, suba e ja esteja no vermelho novamente?

Pensei que iam bombar e bem, cada vez percebo menos estas ligações...

Até vejo aqui no bloomberg boas noticias de earnings dos japonas.

Todas estas frases são inexactas e não traduzem a realidade e a verdadeira relação de optimismo/pessimismo que é muito mais subtil e complexa, tem mais que ver com estados relativos.

brentyman Escreveu:...aproveitei um gráfico aqui postado e desenhei a minha visão sobre o que nos espera. Bull até Junho e a partir daí um Bear até ao fim de 2009.
...
RDO
http://forex-trigrama-rdo.blogspot.com/[/url]

Enslaved Escreveu:Logo constato que estes parâmetros não são válidos para reflectir se vamos para um bear/bull market. Poderá indicar quando haverá uma alteração do movimento dos mercados (curto prazo) e só isso. Logo a primeira figura sugere que poderemos estar perto de um movimento forte de subida, sendo possivelmente o movimento principal para baixo. Não sei se me fiz compreender?

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:Acho que é importante falarmos todos a mesma lionguagem.

Ulisses Pereira Escreveu:

O que eu tenho a certeza é que existem empresas fabulosamente baratas, e mais baratas do que estão actualmente não poderão estar...

Não poderão estar? Euroverde, por que não podem estar? SInceramente, este género de pensamento pode levar um investidor à ruína.

E faltam aqui os argumentos. Porque estão baratas? É isso que é importante discutir. Se alguém re responder a dizer: "Estão caras, mais caras do que isto não podem estar", teremos uma discussão interessantíssima

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Sect Escreveu:Sou da opiniao que de forma ampla estamos em Bear Market porem por agora teremos um pequeno bull.

Porem ja respondi a isso aqui.

http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocio ... 958#468958

MarcoAntonio Escreveu: Um dos grandes problemas na análise técnica (ou na prática da análise técnica) está precisamente nesse tipo de procedimento, com o qual eu não concordo muitas vezes. A enorme tendência (e por vezes facilitismo) para estabelecer parelelismos com o passado a todo o momento...

MarcoAntonio Escreveu: Note-se que o indicador não mede posições ou o estado das acções mas sim opiniões e que se tem verificado ao longo dos anos ter uma relação interessante com o rumo do mercado.

Enslaved Escreveu:No entanto gostava de ver a evolução desse racio no último bear market para ver a que níveis é que ele chegou.

Silverwolf Escreveu:Fico danado com estes americanos, epa passam o dia todo no vermelho, um gajo vende as acções logo pela manhã fazendo optimos preços de venda face ao que foi o dia, e agora no fecho da europa começam a subir que nem uns doidos, as acções fecharam qs onde as vendi, e amanhã vão bombar se isto continua assim e eu fiquei de fora para amanhã :\

errrr

MarcoAntonio Escreveu:Uma das questões subjacentes e utilizadas como argumento neste e noutros tópico semelhantes é a velha questão da quantidade de investidores de cada lado da barricada (mesmo que seja apenas no plano das convicções).

Convém não levar o pensamento contrário muito ao extremo: é bastante raro termos mais de 70/80% dos investidores a pender para um lado e não é necessário que se atinjam esses valores para invertermos tendência.

Eu aproveito para deixar um gráfico comparativo entre o S&P e o Bull/Bear Ratio (os gráficos não são temporalmente totalmente coincidentes mas já dá para ter uma ideia pois está bastante aproximado).

Os níves atingidos em Janeiro são compatíveis com (não são "uma garantia de" mas são "suficientes para") uma inversão de bear para bull.