Enviado: 25/6/2008 16:18
Acabei por não entrar nela, tambem já não vai ser agora...
Mas está com muita força...
Abraço
Mas está com muita força...
Abraço
Fórum dedicado à discussão sobre os Mercados Financeiros - Bolsas de Valores
http://teste.caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/
http://teste.caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=58834
Pemex Says Output Fell 10% in May on Cantarell Drop (Update3)
By Andres R. Martinez
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state- owned oil company, said its May oil output fell 10 percent from a year ago because of declines at its largest field, Cantarell.
Crude production was 2.798 million barrels a day, Mexico City-based Pemex, as the company is known, said today on its Web site. Output a year ago was 3.110 million barrels a day.
Mexico's government, trying to offset production declines as Cantarell dries up, needs to raise Pemex's annual budget 66 percent to $30 billion to meet output goals by 2012, Mexico's Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said in an interview on June 17. Falling output has shaved Pemex sales $10 billion a year.
Mexico, which relies on Pemex for more than a third of its federal budget, may increase production to 3 million barrels a day next year, she said. The 2009 increase would be 4.9 percent higher than this year's average of 2.859 million barrels a day.
``Petroleos Mexicanos is taking measures internally to raise production to 3 million barrels a day by the end of this year or the start of next year,'' Kessel said, without elaborating on the measures.
May daily production at Cantarell fell 34 percent to 1.04 million barrels from 1.58 million barrels a year ago. Output at the field declined 3.3 percent from April.
Production in April and part of May was hurt because of a broken pipeline at the company's Ixtal field, Pemex Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles said at a conference in Monterrey last month.
Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, represented 63 percent of Pemex's output at its peak in December 2003. The world's largest oil field is Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, followed by Burgan in Kuwait.
Congressional Debate
Mexico's Senate is more than half way through 71 days of debate on President Felipe Calderon's bill to give Pemex more freedom to hire foreign and private companies to explore, produce, transport and refine oil, freeing up funds for Pemex to increase oil exploration.
Pemex's proved reserves have fallen by almost 50 percent since 2000 to 14.7 billion barrels in 2007. The company has enough oil to produce at current rates for 9.2 years before it runs out. That figure continues to fall as the company replaced 50 percent of the oil it extracted last year.
Reyes Heroles set a goal to produce 3.1 million barrels a day last July. After the company missed the forecast in eight of 10 months, Reyes Heroles lowered the full-year forecast to 2.9 million in May.
Falling Exports
Crude oil exports fell 22 percent to 1.376 million barrels a day from a year ago. Mexico, the third-largest supplier of crude to the U.S., exports about 80 percent of its oil to its northern neighbor. The value of the exports rose 43 percent to $4.4 billion.
Mexico exported 14 percent fewer barrels in April on output declines.
Pemex's output is ``at risk'' of falling more this year, leading to further cuts in exports, Kessel said.
Imports of gasoline rose 4 percent to 346,000 barrels a day in May. Mexico, which imports about 40 percent of the gasoline it consumes domestically, needs to build a new refinery every three to four years until 2021 to become self- sufficient.
The Energy Ministry and Pemex are studying where a refinery would be built and its capacity, Kessel has said. A location and capacity will be chosen based on the lowest costs, she said.
Mexico must build a new refinery every three to four years until 2021 to become self-sufficient.
Natural-gas output rose to a record 6.851 billion cubic feet a day in May, Pemex said.
Proposed regulation includes requiring foreign exchanges to provide more information about crude oil trades, limiting the number of contracts speculators are allowed to hold, increasing the amount of money speculators need to put up to buy an oil contract, and removing speculators from the market entirely and limiting trade to just producers and consumers.
Oil experts: Curb speculation to cut prices
Hedge fund manager, adviser tell Congress crude could drop by half in 30 days if new regulations are implemented.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Near-record oil prices could quickly fall by half if Congress were to rein in speculators, according to testimony Monday from a hedge fund manager and oil company adviser on Capitol Hill.
Michael Masters, of Masters Capital Management, told a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee that - with greater regulation - oil prices could drop to $65 or $70 a barrel within about 30 days.
"That's half of where prices are today, and gas prices would reflect that," he said.
Roger Diwan, an adviser to oil companies at Washington, D.C.-based PFC Energy, agreed that regulation could lead to a drop in prices. He said it would take no more than 30 days for speculation in the oil market to decrease and gas prices to fall.
With more regulation, "prices will reflect closer the marginal cost of producing oil," Diwan said.
The testimony came as Congress, reflecting some sentiment among the public, blamed Wall Street traders for record oil and gasoline prices.
Regulator: Beware unintended consequences
But the head of the agency that regulates U.S. commodity futures said increasing the amount of money speculators need to put up to buy an oil contract - something the agency can do now in emergencies - could have unintended consequences.
"Changing margin requirements may drive businesses elsewhere to London and over-the-counter markets," said Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chairman Walter Lukken. "I'm not sure it would get [index traders] out of the market," he said.
Lukken warned that raising margins could drive traders elsewhere, with Tokyo or Hong Kong market as beneficiaries.
While Lukken did not say whether or not he believes there is undue speculation in the oil market, he has noted "a lot of growth in swap dealers."
He said the CFTC will report to Congress by Sept. 15 regarding "the scope of commodity index trading in the futures markets and recommendations for improved practices and controls, should they be required."
The chair of the oversight and investigations subpanel hearing, Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., had a different take on speculation. "We risk having our economy brought to its knees" by "excessive" speculation in commodity markets, he said.
Leaders from the trucking, airlines and heating industries testified before the panel that speculation in the oil market has harmed their bottom lines.
In Congress, nine bills attempt to limit the role of speculators. Several have bipartisan support, but only one was co-sponsored by a Republican.
Proposed regulation includes requiring foreign exchanges to provide more information about crude oil trades, limiting the number of contracts speculators are allowed to hold, increasing the amount of money speculators need to put up to buy an oil contract, and removing speculators from the market entirely and limiting trade to just producers and consumers.
Energy speculation at issue
The topic of energy speculation is front and center on Capitol Hill this week. A Senate hearing is scheduled for Tuesday and another House panel examination is set for Thursday.
Last Friday, three Democratic House members including Stupak introduced a bill attempting to better regulate the oil markets.
To underline his case, Stupak said speculators now control 71% of oil on the market. That means only 29% control the physical oil being traded, down from 61% eight years ago. He blamed loosely regulated trading markets with numerous loopholes for the ease that traders have to buy and sell crude.
"We can eliminate a major avenue that traders use to avoid oversight," Stupak said Friday. "It's time for Congress to close the Enron loophole and lower our gas and diesel prices by 50%."
Opposition to regulation mounts
Traders have lashed out against some of the lawmakers' proposals, such as banning speculation in some markets, saying that would only result in oil trading shifting to even less-regulated areas.
But some analysts believe that speculation plays a crucial role in the market by adjusting the price of oil according to supply and demand. Some argue that such regulation - no matter how pervasive - will hinder that process and actually result in higher prices.
Though many Democratic and some Republican politicians have furiously blamed speculation for driving up the price of oil, many analysts argue that the market fundamentals of supply and demand are the cause of record prices.
"If it is a bubble, then where is the evidence in the actual physical market?" asked Kevin Norrish, a commodities analyst with Barclays Capital in London. "There is an endless list of reasons why this argument is a very, very poor one - it will only make things worse."
CNNMoney.com staff writers David Goldman and Aaron Smith contributed to this report.
Petróleo
Especuladores fazem 71 por cento das transacções no NYMEX, segundo parlamentares norte-americanos
23.06.2008 - 18h51 Lusa
Os especuladores representam actualmente cerca de 71 por cento das transacções no New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), contra 37 por cento em 2000, segundo um inquérito realizado por parlamentares norte-americanos, citado pelo Wall Street Journal de hoje.
Os dados foram fornecidos à comissão para a Energia e o Comércio do Congresso dos Estados Unidos pela Agência de Regulação das Matérias-Primas (CFTC), segundo o jornal, que obteve uma cópia do documento.
O Nymex é o mercado de transacção e cotação do WTI (Western Texas intermediate) ou "light sweet crude", um cabaz de petróleos norte-americanos, encaminhados por oleodutos até Cushing, no Oklahoma.
Segundo os documentos, somente 29 por cento das transacções são realizadas com fins de cobertura pelos utilizadores de crude.
As trocas especulativas são consideradas como um dos motores da recente escalada das cotações do petróleo.
No comunicado final da cimeira de Djeddah que terminou no Domingo e reuniu os líderes dos principais produtores petrolíferos mundiais, os participantes evitam empregar o termo especulação mas indicam que "a transparência e a regulação dos mercados financeiros devem ser melhoradas", nomeadamente "para examinar as interacções entre os mercados de petróleo".
A conferência de Djeddah fora convocada pela Arábia Saudita para tentar identificar meios de travar a subida dos preços do petróleo que duplicaram num ano e roçaram há uma semana dos 140 dólares.
By Emma Graham-Harrison - Analysis
BEIJING (Reuters) - Beijing's surprise increase in diesel prices will make truckers grumble, but for the first time in weeks they may be able to fill up without rationing or queues, and the easier supply of oil will likely bolster consumption.
The government said on Thursday it would raise low state-set caps on fuel pump prices by around 1,000 yuan a tonne, or nearly 20 percent, the first rise for nearly eight months and the steepest one-off hike ever.
Oil markets fell on the news as traders bet it might help curb soaring demand, as Chinese drivers already squeezed by high inflation looked to cut back on spending.
But they may be underestimating the appetites of the newly rich middle-classes, government plans to protect the poorest with direct subsidies, and most of all the role of state-owned refiners who carry much of the burden of current policy.
"Perhaps somewhat counter-intuitively, it's not bearish," said Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital in London.
"At the margin it may help to support demand growth for diesel and gasoline as it alleviates shortages," he added.
China's oil majors PetroChina and Sinopec are obliged to sell fuel at often unprofitable state-set levels and get only ad-hoc subsidies to help balance their books.
Fuel prices had been unchanged since last November even as crude climbed by around $40 a barrel, so plants faced feedstock prices far above break-even levels. Many cut output as they plunged into the red, causing widespread shortages.
Before the increase there were queues and dry pumps across the capital, and a tour bus driver was spotted begging assistants at one service station, rumored to offer supplies at illegally high prices, to let her buy at whatever cost.
By restoring refiners to financial health, the increase will encourage them to ramp up production, and the new supplies of fuel will unleash suppressed consumption growth.
"This price increase gets the refiners pretty close to profitability, and throughput should increase in the months ahead," said Trevor Houser, analyst at Rhodium Group in New York.
"Don't expect much demand destruction...certainly not enough to outweigh the increase in output from improved economics."
TOO RICH TO BRAKE
Beijing has pledged subsidies for the most vulnerable users, including farmers and fishermen, which should support their consumption. Economists say this is a better way to spend government money than handing cash to refiners.
"The low prices benefit everyone, including rich people that can afford high prices," the World Bank said in a report released before the increase, advocating a rapid raise to support energy efficiency policies.
But there is a second group of fuel users whose demand will likely also be undented -- the newly rich.
The fondness for powerful but inefficient sports utility vehicles (SUVs) now appears to be on the wane in the West as crude spirals towards $140 a barrel, and the credit crunch bites.
But China's middle classes are taking to its already crowded roads with a vengeance, and those who can afford to are in SUVs.
Sales of the gas guzzlers rose more than twice as fast as car purchases last year, up 50 percent to 357,400 units, compared with a 22 percent rise in car sales to 6.3 million units.
Even the surprise hike is unlikely to coax the nouveaux riche to take their new toys off the road.
The speed of economic expansion outweighs much of the rise in oil prices, and depreciation on cars also means that once bought, owners like to drive them even if fuel is pricey.
"I don't think too much about oil prices, the main thing is the car's performance," said Mr Chao, a 52-year-old businessman shopping for a second car in an upmarket Landrover showroom.
"A good car can upgrade your quality of life, reflect the excitement of being alive."
BiG Escreveu:Tendência de subida do petróleo é "falsa e imposta"
(17-06-2008 - 13:01)
A tendência de subida dos preços do petróleo é "falsa e imposta", considera o presidente o Irão, Mahmoud Ahmadineyad, que sublinha que o mercado está cheio de matéria-prima, culpando em a desvalorização que considera propositada do dólar.
"Em momentos em que o crescimento do consumo é menor do que o crescimento da produção e o mercado está cheio de petróleo, os preços sobem e essa tendência é completamente falsa e imposta", afirmou Ahmadineyad citado pela agência Reuters.
O mesmo responsável acrescentou, na abertura de uma reunião do Fundo Internacional para o Desenvolvimento da OPEP, que "está muito claro que mãos visíveis e invisíveis estão a controlar os preços de uma maneira falsa com fins políticos e económicos".
"A queda do valor do dólar e a subida dos preços da energia são duas caras da mesma moeda que são apresentados como os factores que estão por trás da recente instabilidade", referiu Ahmadineyad que considera que os membros da OPEP deveriam encontrar outra divisa para as transacções do petróleo, considerando que a actual situação da divisa americana um dos maiores problemas mundiais da actualidade.
O Irão é o quarto maior exportador mundial de petróleo e tem vindo a reiterar que o mercado está suficientemente abastecido da matéria-prima, culpando pela subida dos preços a especulação, a fraqueza do dólar e factores geopolíticos.
Em Nova Iorque, o petróleo cedia 1% para os 133,27 dólares por barril depois de ontem ter chegado a negociar nos 139,89 dólares, o valor mais alto de sempre.