CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Attentive Escreveu:Perante estes fundamentais:

- Debit to Equit Ratio de 1.31
- Vendas a decrescer
- PSR 10.71, vai lá vai
- Um PER de 139, ui
- EPS (sem comentários)
- E a diluição. Tem alguma apetência para isso
- Chamo especial atenção para a brutal diferença entre o Mark Cap actual, face ao valor do Equity. Não achas um pouco desproporcionado ?

Como é possível que a TSL com um PER de 139, e com esta capitalização bolsista estar a cotar aos preços que se encontra ? Há qualquer coisa que não bate certo.

luisalmeidapt Escreveu:Acabei de vender as TSL agora a 8.25

In September, I argued that First Solar (FSLR) was a good company in a bad industry. At that point, I recommended buying the name, at around $85, because I felt that the stock's 20% post-earnings decline was overblown. While they had lowered guidance, I didn't feel the decline was warranted. The company was still projected to grow both revenues and earnings by over 20%. I was totally wrong about First Solar, and I'll admit it. The solar industry was in much worse shape than I originally thought, and now I would recommend you use this week's rally to get out of these names and possibly set up some short positions.

The problem is that countries are cutting back on solar subsidies, which is taking down revenues. With the subsidies gone, the demand for solar energy just isn't there, which is taking down prices as well. Solar companies cannot lower costs as fast as revenue cuts are happening, and that is pushing margins lower. Way lower. When First Solar reported their 2nd quarter in August, the company projected full year earnings of $9 to $9.50. When they announced their third quarter results in late October, that number was down to $6.50 to $7.50. Analysts have surely taken down their numbers in stride, as you can see from the following.

EPS Trend Q4 2011 Q1 2012 2011 2012
90 days ago $4.30 $2.19 $9.13 $10.83
60 days ago $4.21 $2.14 $8.99 $10.66
30 days ago $3.98 $1.86 $8.61 $9.48
7 days ago $2.63 $1.50 $6.96 $7.47
Current $2.56 $1.50 $6.88 $7.47

Analysts' current estimate is 12 cents below the midpoint of First Solar's latest guidance, and we still have another month of this quarter to go. Also, an additional month until First Solar actually reports this quarter. That's plenty of time for more downgrades. I was extremely excited about First Solar when expectations were for $9 this year. But I've lost that excitement now that we are below $7. Also, the cuts for 2012 numbers have been larger on a percentage basis. First Solar earned $7.68 in 2010. That means that despite revenues projected to increase from $2.56 billion in 2010 to $4.11 billion in 2012 (a 60% increase), earnings are expected to decrease. Why would you want to be in the name? In fact, because earnings have come down so much in the past 30 days, the forward P/E on First Solar has actually risen more than a point in that time, from 5.8 to 6.9. It doesn't seem right to buy a company that is more expensive than it was when future earnings potential was much higher.

First Solar's troubles are even worse when you look at the rest of the industry. Here's how 2012 numbers have come down for the other solar names: Trina Solar (TSL), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Suntech Power (STP), Sunpower (SPWR), LDK Solar (LDK), and Yingli Green (YGE).

2012 EPS TSL CSIQ STP SPWR LDK YGE
90 days ago $2.20 $1.33 $0.51 $1.34 $0.66 $0.84
30 days ago $1.16 $0.05 ($0.01) $1.04 $0.31 $0.36
Current ($0.11) ($0.15) ($0.61) $0.44 ($0.89) ($0.20)
As you can see from the table, First Solar has actually seen the best revisions, only down 30% or so. Five of the other six I've brought up are now expected to lose money next year, and I can only think those numbers will get worse. Just look at Trina Solar. 90 days ago, the street was expecting a 2012 profit of $154 million. Now we're expecting a loss of $8 million. It's no wonder why shares are down almost 50% over that time. If this chart doesn't say get out, I'm not sure I'll be able to convince you even with a novel. Here's how bad the revisions have been in percentage terms, compared with the stock's performance over the last 90 days.

Luckily for these stocks, they can't go below zero. Look how bad they've done over the past three months, and you can see that the negative revisions to their 2012 earnings are a huge culprit. But that's not the only one, as we take a look at some of their balance sheet metrics.

Financials FSLR TSL CSIQ STP SPWR LDK YGE
Mkt. Cap. $4.14B $564M $126M $448M $783M $465M $683M
Cash $763M $675M $277M $458M $375M $263M $928M
Debt $610M $1.01B $949M $2.37B $967M $3.62B $2.16B

Some of these names have more cash on their balance sheet (as of the most recent quarter), than they have in total market capitalization. However, as you can see, they have large amounts of debt. With the expectations of future losses, you can only imagine that cash levels are going to go down, and debt levels will go up. Some of these firms may be headed the way of Solyndra. I don't mean that they are fraudulent, but bankruptcy could be coming. However, that's an argument for another day.

All in all, I don't see any positive signs that make me want to buy these names. High debt loads, declining earnings, and weekly negative revisions to future earnings per share scare me. These names are down big already, but there is still plenty you can lose on them. I would use this recent rally as your chance to get out while you still can. As you can see from my following table, these stocks have jumped a lot off their recent lows. A couple more negative earnings revisions, and they'll be back at those levels. It's a bright idea to avoid this industry right now.

luisalmeidapt Escreveu:Uma chinesa, mas com muito negócio fora da china, como por exemplo Europa, USA, Australia, etc, aproveito para deixar mais alguma informações sobre projectos e de referencia, que faz com que tenha confiança em estar nela.

luisalmeidapt Escreveu:Uma chinesa, mas com muito negócio fora da china, como por exemplo Europa, USA, Australia, etc, aproveito para deixar mais alguma informações sobre projectos e de referencia, que faz com que tenha confiança em estar nela.

Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (NYSE:TSL) has the 10th highest upside potential in this segment of the market. Its upside is 64.6%. Its consensus target price is $11.67 based on the average of all estimates.