Portugal vai ganhar 1.400 milionários estrangeiros este ano

[Camisa Roxa]

Nasdaq Commentary

The Nasdaq Composite faltered again this week after finding support at the 1320 level
until Friday. While the weekly close at 1320.91 was within the week?s established
support and resistance range, the fact that we made a new term low of 1303.64 does
indicate that the sellers are more desperate than the buyers.

The 1320 served as a strong support for the entire week, while 1350 served as the
resistance line until Wednesday. And while it appeared we would take a swing at a
rally on Wednesday, we gave back all of that on Thursday, and then even more by the
end of the week.

That said, the 1380-1400 levels we had mentioned last week are not even part of the
equation anymore, nor do we have a clear horizontal support line with today?s new
low. Barring a recovery Monday (with no low under 1320), we are now treading into
levels we haven?t seen since late October.

With a failed rally, a bearish divergence from all key EMAs, and falling below all
previously established support, we are now ripe for something of a free-fall. While
we don?t want to sound the sirens yet, we do have reason for concern.

To salt the wounds, the charts are looking much as they did in December and January
of last year when we took two consecutive passes at the 200 day line, and failed to
surmount that line either time. This was a pre-curser to an intermediate-term bear
trend.

Last week we had indicated that a drop to 1200-1250 was not out of the question, and
that seem seven more possible now. With the other major indices reverting back into
the trendlines made in December, the Nasdaq could fall to the lower end of that
projection before meeting any real support.

For the time being we have reverted to daily charts, as the pivot, if any, will come
soon. With resistance now at the 1350 level, we?ll need to see a close above that to
remove our bearish bias. And we?ll need to see a weekly close firmly above it before
being bullish. Until either of those occur we are on the lookout for continued
downturn.

S&P 100 (OEX) Commentary

While the OEX made a firm move higher today, don?t join the bullish camp just yet. We
still made a new term low of 424.63 this week, and closed the week a new term low
closing of 432.57.

Never trading above the 440 level this week, we didn?t even approach last week?s
levels, with the exception of last Friday?s low of 435.37, which led us into this
losing week to begin with.

As such, we now find ourselves back inside the firm bearish trendlines that were
established with the December pullback. Worse, we now have no clear support on the
downside, making a move to 410 something of a possibility. The 410 level is the level
at which the October rally started, yet it?s now the only point of reference that has
not been broken.

The major hurdle now is surmounting the 440 line. Serving as clear support or
resistance eight separate occasions over the last twenty-five trading days, it?s not
encouraging to see the OEX hit it like a brick wall twice this week. The minor hurdle
we?re also contending with is the trendline resistance falling now to 435.

As a result, we remain bearish the OEX based on this performance for a move to
400-420, but our stop is now 440.

The only help would be a surprise rally, or bargain buying. As prices approach those
that we saw in October, that may very well be the spark for a reversal, but again,
that may not come until we see the bottom as low as 400.

With military conflict clearly in our future, the market response to that is
difficult to gauge. Caution is advised to those would-be bargain buyers?..there?s a
reason stocks become cheap.

The Bottom Line

Both the OEX and OTC went from bad to worse in the past week, as we have fallen under
all technical support lines, setting up what could potentially be a free-fall. The
ultimate landing could be 400 for the OEX and 1200 for the OTC. Stops for our bearish
bias come at 440 and 445 for the OEX, although there is only one clear barrier at the
1350 level for the Nasdaq Composite. With little to no real reason for a reversal
(technical nor fundamental) we?re looking for more downside until the buyers are
enticed enough to get off the sidelines.