CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

12:34
Data Comment: Bad figures for the USD. All CPI data came in in line with expectations, except the lower than expected CPI YoY. The housing figures are dismal and confirming that the Fed is right in expecting a cooling housing sector, which again means that there is less need monetary tightening. Fixed Income flies higher and will probably break key resistance soon...
12:38
Equity Strategy: indices push higher, again noting inflation data not housing. DAX at key resistance 5810 where selling interest is apparent. FTSE striving to go above 5870. We remain long in the latter from 5858

12:30
US Housing Starts (Jul) out at 1795K vs. 1808K expected. US Building Permits (Jul) out at 1747K vs. 1840K expected.
12:30
US Consumer Prices Headline Rate for July out at 0.4%/4.1% vs. 0.4%/4.2% expected. Core CPI at 0.2%/2.7% vs. 0.2%/2.7% expected

Market expects a change in the Headline Rate MoM/YoY of 0.4%/4.2% and Core CPI is expected to show changes of 0.2%/2.7

11:56
Strategy: Equity Core CPI MoM 0.3% or above- USD stronger: •Very choppy no matter what but 0.3% probably won’t be enough to push equities decisively lower. Re-enter longs at 5850 in DAX, 5850 in FTSE. •0.4% or higher and stocks should see immense downside as the whole market doesn’t consider this outcome an option. Sell into any temporary retracements along the way down.
11:58
Strategy: Equity Core CPI MoM 0.2%- slightly weaker: •EU indices/US futures should build on yesterday’s gains. Europe’s indices have the most upside in them though strong resistance in DAX at 5810. Stand aside. •Look for S&P 500 to open around key resistance 1290.
11:59
Strategy: Equity Core CPI MoM 0.1% or below - weaker: •This will kill off the bear camp for now and equities will explode higher! Buy into any retracement along the way up. •If S&P 500 doesn’t post a close above 1290 tonight, however, we consider it yet another worrying sign for mid-term equity performance.
11:59
Strategy: Equity Final Note: Being long ahead of the release is perhaps the best CPI-related strategy today. Look for the market to drift higher in much the same fashion as yesterday with PPI. Then decide whether to take profits, move up stop or stick with the position through 12.30 GMT. We recommend the latter.

PORTUGAL = GMT + 1


Data GMT - Divulgação - Período - Esperado - Anterior

16-Ago-2006 12:30 CPI MoM (US) Jul 0.4% 0.2%

16-Ago-2006 12:30 Manufacturing Shipments MoM (Canada) Jun -0.4% 0.3%

16-Ago-2006 12:30 CPI Ex. Food & Energy MoM (US) Jul 0.3% 0.3%

16-Ago-2006 12:30 CPI Core Index SA (US) Jul 206.0

16-Ago-2006 12:30 Housing Starts (US) Jul 1810K 1850K

16-Ago-2006 12:30 Building Permits (US) Jul 1840K 1862K