CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Finalmente ele assume publicamente que a melhor opção é ficar de fora ... será que estamos a chegar à altura de comprar, lol ? eu estou a pensar em entrar numa ou duas acções hoje/amanhã para sair ainda esta semana...

Um abraço
Nuno

Hoje concordo com o Cramer.
Como investidor de médio prazo não sinto confiança em entrar nos mercados. Mesmo em acções de crescimento (teoricamente menos voláteis), as taxas de retorno/risco/tempo penso que não me compensam uma entrada que faça sentir tranquilo.

Como swing trader, fazer scalping é uma forma de tentar ganhar algum com o pouco tempo que tenho livre. Mas tb aqui dou razão ao Cramer. Anda tudo tão "nervoso" que se por acaso por razão alguma não puder acompanhar os mercados posso ser cilindrado.Quer a abrir curtos ou longos.Aliás no scalping só me compensa alavancando a posição. E se por acaso for apanhado na onda estou a trabalhar apenas para as comissões e recuperar o dinheiro perdido.Isto não quer dizer que não se ganhe algum mas qd não há mt tempo penso que o risco/recompensa é grande.

Por isso o estar fora é a melhor posição.A que me dá segurança neste momento.

Cumprimentos

"Buy, Sell or Hold?"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
7/17/2006 8:59 AM EDT

"Three options: sit tight, buy, sell.

That's the menu. Let's review.

First, to sell. You can't believe we haven't come down. You can't believe that we haven't reacted to the world's events. If world events escalate from here, there could be further reason to sell. Otherwise, though, we have to believe that we have seen all of the bad earnings we have seen already extended to most other companies. Stocks might be able to do nothing on not-great earnings and actually go up on good earnings. So selling into the weakness seems wrong.

Buying's harder. We are still not massively oversold. We are still not at a lot of negativity in terms of people buying endless puts and the public leaving the table, although the trading in brokerage names for individuals would indicate there are. We have said to wait for the oscillator to go to minus 4, the level where comfort begins. We're not there, so can only pick small and circle the wagons.

Doing nothing. That seems like the best course because it is too low to sell or short, but we need to leave space for those who still believe it isn't too late to go and for those shorts who have been coining money and have shown no sense of doing anything but pressing. Sitting on your hands is very, very hard. But the hardest course is often the best one. That's the case now. And all that can go wrong is a major rally, which doesn't seem possible yet. That rally could occur right from the get-go on a new day, but almost all of those kinds of rallies have failed so I am not worried about a chance to get in. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

"The Rising Interest Rate Impact"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
7/17/2006 8:46 AM EDT

"Ninety rate hikes around the globe. That's the real takeway from Citigroup's (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) earnings call. It shows that the pressure the whole world is under because of the central banks is relentless and ugly.

We have forgotten the potential for relief from the Fed given what we see in the world: a slowdown that shows the central banks are working their way through the slowdown.

The market's crummy worldwide. That's because of the mandated slowdown. It is not a slowdown that is organic. It is created by central banks. They can give it, and they can take it away.

The only reason why this is worth keeping in mind is that we are operating right now under the assumption that all that matters is earnings. If you're listening to the Citigroup call you know that the company is hurting from these rate increases. Given the breadth of Citigroup's business you can easily extend that to the world.

That does not mean we are about to get rate relief immediately. It does mean that those rate increases seem excessive and will not be the case six months from now, which is what stocks predict. Think of that when you sell today. "

(in www.realmoney.com)