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"Don't Be Blinded by Nostalgia for Big Tech"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
6/16/2006 9:12 AM EDT

Feels like old home week. Microsoft in the news for Bill Gates' retirement. People wanting to call the bottom in Intel in The Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column. Oracle announcing "stunning" earnings increases. Dell talking the other day about getting its groove back. We've already seen article after article about Cisco's big comeback.


Yada, yada, yada.

I have to tell you, the amount of time and energy spent on these companies versus their prospects and growth is ridiculous.

I would much rather spend the time talking about the next generation of techies than about these guys.

Who should the media be focused on? How about the fast-growing companies, companies like Network Appliance and Citrix , or how about Qualcomm and Palm, companies that are really growing and really raising earnings and revenue rates? Everyone's so captured by the old that it's "Who needs the new?"

I could not believe how important everyone thinks it is that Bill Gates is stepping down two years from now, especially because Steve Ballmer's been running the company. I could not believe how more people weren't focused on the company's incredibly lackluster performance -- five-year lows, for heaven's sake.

I chalk it up as another sign that the media simply can't get you where you need to be as a good investor because much of the media is made up of people who could care less about investing and just regard the news as something to report, like baseball scores, without the analysis. They rely on guests to do the analyzing not because they are better but because they just don't know any better.

The more we focus on these old-line techs, the more it feels like what happened to IBM in the last decade. We stopped caring about IBM as a stock long before the media stopped caring about IBM, the company.

Don't be snookered. Maybe there is a bottom in Intel, but if that's the case, I would sooner own AMD, which has more momentum. You want software? I would give you Citrix and Network Appliance over Oracle and Microsoft any day. If you really need Dell, I say, "Go to Apple. "And if networking is your game, I just can't help you. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Para que não caiam já em cima do homem, recordo que a capitulação de que ele fala é de curto prazo.

"There's Capitulation Behind the Big Move"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
6/16/2006 8:52 AM EDT


"Shares soar as options traders get steamrolled. Shares rally as those betting against the market scramble to cover. Market recovers optimism after hedge fund redemptions end.

No, I know, none of these explanations is that simple. We want every rally to be linked to the Federal Reserve or to the inflation data.

Yet I find that whenever we get big moves like this, it's usually because someone large has capitulated. We last had extreme volatility like this week's in April 2000. Look a few weeks after those ups and downs and you will read that some of the biggest firms had folded up shop or had to meet redemptions because of poor performance.

Or, if you have ever traded options in any scale, you know that there are tons of people who are betting that stocks will just stay the same, where short bets against calls are nirvana (the calls go out worthless because the stocks didn't rally). These same people have to scramble and buy common to hedge those short calls if the market explodes. No, that doesn't trigger a rally -- something fundamental like a more benign Ben Bernanke does -- but it can contribute to that extra 100 points that gets tacked on once the news turns good.

You have to understand the mechanics of the market, not just the data from the government and not just the news from the companies, to fathom the big moves. You have to understand the sheer size of the bets made every day against the market and recognize that when those bets go awry, they bring in buyers who are as unnaturally motivated as the margined sellers are.

The most difficult thing I found as a portfolio manager who shorted was not overstaying my welcome. If the market swoons everyday at 1 p.m. ET because of margin selling -- as it did for nine straight days -- don't I have to be short at 12:59 p.m. to make the money?

If I print money on the short side every day, why stop?

The answer, of course, is that you can be too greedy. One day the trend breaks. I have been so focused on the Investor's Intelligence bull-bear poll and the S&P oscillator because they have, quite accurately, told me when to stop shorting and cover. They tell me when my welcome is overstayed, a reading of 50 bulls and an oscillator of +5.

Of course, there are always going to be moments when these indicators are wrong and you get out too soon or cover too soon. But that's just part of the game. Overstaying your welcome is much more of a sin than missing the last few points of a big gain or a big swoon.

The most important thing for you to know is that at the extremes, you get these extremes and they are not caused by the data, they are caused by panicked shorts or longs caught leaning the wrong way. "

(in www.realmoney.com)