Reuters, Cohen, Chakrabortti... coisa e tal..
Enviado: 15/6/2006 2:38Bem, a Reuters anda com o Mid-Year Investment Outlook Summit, e por lá andam muitas das mentes iluminadas das grandes casas de investimento... conferências para aqui, entrevistas para acolá....
Aqui ficam dois artigos de 2 "proeminentes", um da Goldman Sachs e outro da JPMorgan
in today.reuters.com
Stock rout could worsen: JPMorgan
Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:49 PM ET
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A global sell-off in stocks that started in May is not over and may only be just starting, Abhijit Chakrabortti, global equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said on Tuesday.
"This is nothing compared with what we may see late in the summer and early October -- once slower growth finally sinks in and expectations for higher benchmark rates, at 6 percent or even more, come out," Chakrabortti told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
Chakrabortti said the market correction may exceed 10 or even 15 percent before it abates. In some sectors, such as materials, commodities and certain consumer staples, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), declines may surpass 30 percent.
"Sectors most dependent on growth and the companies most dependent on volume and price declines, which also includes tech companies, should be avoided," he said.
JPMorgan's model asset allocation portfolio is recommending clients to invest 20 percent of their holdings in cash and 25 percent in bonds. The remaining 55 percent is distributed among equities in the United States, the UK, Western Europe and Japan. Still, the portfolio is underweight in U.S. stocks.
"People are still conservative on inflation and on interest rates," he said. "I don't believe the economy is heading into recession, but growth is going to slow and GDP and earnings will expand at subpar levels for a couple of quarters."
In the U.S., according to Chakrabortti, few sectors, including telecommunications and consumer staples -- except for Wal-Mart and P&G -- may outperform the market.
"We like the big telecom providers such as Verizon (VZ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and AT&T (T.N: Quote, Profile, Research), as well as Colgate (CL.N: Quote, Profile, Research)," he said.
One stock Chakrabortti strongly recommends is Altria Group Inc. (MO.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the parent company of Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Philip Morris International.
"Phillip Morris should be at the core of everybody's equity portfolio," he said. "They know how to operate in a very tough environment that includes litigations, patent wars and negative image. And when was the last time you saw the price of any of their products decrease?"
Chakrabortti recommends a zero allocation into emerging markets stocks this year, even after double-digit declines in the past month in Indian, Russian and Brazilian stocks.
"One of the reasons why we still didn't see emerging markets falling even lower is because people are not selling yet," he said. "It's hard to get a selling bid in places like India and Russia, where foreigners simply did not cash their stocks yet. But in my opinion to be holding onto those stocks may prove to be an even bigger mistake right now."
Still, he favors foreign assets in countries such as Japan and Korea.
"If there's a country that could benefit from inflation and higher rates, that country is Japan," he said. "The Nikkei may double in a couple of years and I'm a long-term bull on the Japanese yen."
"The only problem in Japan is that a big portion of Japan's equity market is comprised of cyclical stocks that are dependent of growth outside of the country," he added. "And that may hurt, or at least increase volatility in their stock markets for some time."
Goldman's Cohen says S&P underpriced
Wed Jun 14, 2006 2:11 PM ET
By Emily Chasan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A lot of the correction in U.S. stocks has already been completed, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.SPX> is currently underpriced, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Wednesday.
"We think a good deal of the correction has already occurred," Cohen said at the Reuters Investment Outlook summit in New York.
"Looking at the fundamentals ... on that basis I would say the S&P 500 looks underpriced right now," she added, noting that based on her fair value estimate for the S&P of 1,400 by the end of the year, the S&P is underpriced by about 12 percent.
Cohen said she expects U.S. economic growth and corporate profits to slow, but that they will continue to expand at a more sustainable rate.
FED NEARLY DONE
Partially driving Cohen's view is her expectation that the Federal Reserve is nearly done raising interest rates, she said.
"The Fed is probably going to be finished before the end of the year," Cohen said. "This is a Federal Reserve that has already done most of what it is going to do. The fact that people are quibbling over whether they are going to do one more or two more, in some ways is very important on a day-to-day basis. But in terms of the intermediate to longer-term outlook, it doesn't really matter."
She added that she does not expect the Federal Reserve to dramatically overshoot its cycle of interest rate increases.
"We think the Fed is finished with another one or two increases likely," Cohen said.
MOMENTUM REVERSED
Investors' fundamental attitudes have also been changing, Cohen said.
"There was a very significant interest on the part of investors to chase momentum," she said. "From the market perspective, over the last five weeks there has been an incredible reversal of momentum ... the momentum that drove small-cap and high-beta stocks I see reversing."
U.S. stocks have fallen off May peaks in recent weeks, amid a global rout on concerns about rising interest rates and inflation in the face of slower economic growth. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI>, Nasdaq Composite Index <.NDX> and S&P 500 index have all erased their gains for the year.
Cohen said she does not expect commodities to repeat the rally they have seen over the last three years, and that she liked investments in U.S. technology and industrial stocks, as well as the Japanese market.
"Within the equity market I think some of the best value opportunities are among those companies that would benefit from a long-lasting economic expansion," Cohen said.
Aqui ficam dois artigos de 2 "proeminentes", um da Goldman Sachs e outro da JPMorgan
in today.reuters.com
Stock rout could worsen: JPMorgan
Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:49 PM ET
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A global sell-off in stocks that started in May is not over and may only be just starting, Abhijit Chakrabortti, global equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said on Tuesday.
"This is nothing compared with what we may see late in the summer and early October -- once slower growth finally sinks in and expectations for higher benchmark rates, at 6 percent or even more, come out," Chakrabortti told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
Chakrabortti said the market correction may exceed 10 or even 15 percent before it abates. In some sectors, such as materials, commodities and certain consumer staples, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), declines may surpass 30 percent.
"Sectors most dependent on growth and the companies most dependent on volume and price declines, which also includes tech companies, should be avoided," he said.
JPMorgan's model asset allocation portfolio is recommending clients to invest 20 percent of their holdings in cash and 25 percent in bonds. The remaining 55 percent is distributed among equities in the United States, the UK, Western Europe and Japan. Still, the portfolio is underweight in U.S. stocks.
"People are still conservative on inflation and on interest rates," he said. "I don't believe the economy is heading into recession, but growth is going to slow and GDP and earnings will expand at subpar levels for a couple of quarters."
In the U.S., according to Chakrabortti, few sectors, including telecommunications and consumer staples -- except for Wal-Mart and P&G -- may outperform the market.
"We like the big telecom providers such as Verizon (VZ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and AT&T (T.N: Quote, Profile, Research), as well as Colgate (CL.N: Quote, Profile, Research)," he said.
One stock Chakrabortti strongly recommends is Altria Group Inc. (MO.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the parent company of Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Philip Morris International.
"Phillip Morris should be at the core of everybody's equity portfolio," he said. "They know how to operate in a very tough environment that includes litigations, patent wars and negative image. And when was the last time you saw the price of any of their products decrease?"
Chakrabortti recommends a zero allocation into emerging markets stocks this year, even after double-digit declines in the past month in Indian, Russian and Brazilian stocks.
"One of the reasons why we still didn't see emerging markets falling even lower is because people are not selling yet," he said. "It's hard to get a selling bid in places like India and Russia, where foreigners simply did not cash their stocks yet. But in my opinion to be holding onto those stocks may prove to be an even bigger mistake right now."
Still, he favors foreign assets in countries such as Japan and Korea.
"If there's a country that could benefit from inflation and higher rates, that country is Japan," he said. "The Nikkei may double in a couple of years and I'm a long-term bull on the Japanese yen."
"The only problem in Japan is that a big portion of Japan's equity market is comprised of cyclical stocks that are dependent of growth outside of the country," he added. "And that may hurt, or at least increase volatility in their stock markets for some time."
Goldman's Cohen says S&P underpriced
Wed Jun 14, 2006 2:11 PM ET
By Emily Chasan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A lot of the correction in U.S. stocks has already been completed, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.SPX> is currently underpriced, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Wednesday.
"We think a good deal of the correction has already occurred," Cohen said at the Reuters Investment Outlook summit in New York.
"Looking at the fundamentals ... on that basis I would say the S&P 500 looks underpriced right now," she added, noting that based on her fair value estimate for the S&P of 1,400 by the end of the year, the S&P is underpriced by about 12 percent.
Cohen said she expects U.S. economic growth and corporate profits to slow, but that they will continue to expand at a more sustainable rate.
FED NEARLY DONE
Partially driving Cohen's view is her expectation that the Federal Reserve is nearly done raising interest rates, she said.
"The Fed is probably going to be finished before the end of the year," Cohen said. "This is a Federal Reserve that has already done most of what it is going to do. The fact that people are quibbling over whether they are going to do one more or two more, in some ways is very important on a day-to-day basis. But in terms of the intermediate to longer-term outlook, it doesn't really matter."
She added that she does not expect the Federal Reserve to dramatically overshoot its cycle of interest rate increases.
"We think the Fed is finished with another one or two increases likely," Cohen said.
MOMENTUM REVERSED
Investors' fundamental attitudes have also been changing, Cohen said.
"There was a very significant interest on the part of investors to chase momentum," she said. "From the market perspective, over the last five weeks there has been an incredible reversal of momentum ... the momentum that drove small-cap and high-beta stocks I see reversing."
U.S. stocks have fallen off May peaks in recent weeks, amid a global rout on concerns about rising interest rates and inflation in the face of slower economic growth. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI>, Nasdaq Composite Index <.NDX> and S&P 500 index have all erased their gains for the year.
Cohen said she does not expect commodities to repeat the rally they have seen over the last three years, and that she liked investments in U.S. technology and industrial stocks, as well as the Japanese market.
"Within the equity market I think some of the best value opportunities are among those companies that would benefit from a long-lasting economic expansion," Cohen said.