CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Respect the Downtrend in UnitedHealth

By Dan Fitzpatrick
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/9/2006 10:29 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Dan Fitzpatrick



One of the more difficult tasks for beginning traders to learn is how and when to sell. Most traders cut their profits short and let their losses run, rather than the opposite. Why? Because most folks hate being wrong. This desire to be right transcends trading; it's human nature.

But the financial market will teach you that being wrong is an unavoidable part of life. It is literally impossible to escape being wrong in trading. Even choosing to remain on the sidelines ultimately will be proven wrong because of the toll inflation takes on your money.

You are always going to be wrong when you sell. You'll be either too early or too late, because it's impossible to sell at the very top. You might be fearful that you'll hold on too long and give back some of your paper profits.

So what do you do? You close the position, even though the stock is trending steadily higher. Your act of selling simply adds fuel to the uptrend because it puts you on the sidelines. You like the stock and regret selling too soon. So you buy it back, propelling the price higher. It's a feedback loop that ultimately breaks down, but never when you expect it to.

If a stock is moving against you, be quick to admit you are wrong. Again, being wrong is unavoidable. Failing to acknowledge your error does not equate to bravery, resilience or commitment; rather, it's a sign that you do not understand or accept the very basics of the financial markets, or of life. Once you embrace the idea of being wrong, you can get on with the business of making money in spite of your handicap.

You can, however, minimize the negative consequences of being wrong by using scaled entries and exits. A small initial buy should enable you to admit more easily -- and sooner -- that you are wrong, because your stake in the position is minimal, when admitting you are wrong won't cost you much money.

Further, a small initial sale when you fear overstaying your welcome within an uptrend also makes it easier to accept the possibility that you might be wrong and selling too soon. After all, you'll still be involved in the stock, albeit with a smaller share size.

As you peruse the charts below, try to remember that the various stops and entries highlighted on them are not necessarily "all or none" price levels. Rather, they can be used as the basis for partial entries or exits. Such an approach acknowledges the possibility of being wrong without sacrificing the opportunity to be right.

Let's get to those charts. Today, here are looks at Titanium Metals (TIE:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), Tetra Technologies (TTI:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), DXP Enterprises (DXPE:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) and BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take).



http://www.thestreet.com/_tsctten/marke ... 84437.html

as quedas com volume voltaram. Existe um acção judicial sobre a forma como foram geridas as "stock options" do board. Este "pequena" parece não ter fundo.
TB

TB,
Agradecido pela sua opinião.

Muito provavelmente, irei amanhã por o "Buy-under" a 43$, (pois o minimo d 52 semanas é 43,31$)& talvez haja um "spike" e assim posso entrar a valor interessante...

Com a vela de hoje faz "um morning star", que associado a suporte de 61.8% Fibonacci pode fazer prever uma inversão, sugerindo que a pressão vendedora está a terminar.
Um abraço
TB

NA CARTEIRA GAB(MAIO/2006)postei:
Colocada: 6/5/2006 23:21

Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH)5 Maio 2006: 46.39 0.14 (0.30%)
Interessado a 45$(ponderar um BUY-Under).
Rsi já passou abaixo de 30 e encontra-se perto dos 20.
Preparar eventual trade durante a semana...

Nota:Apesar de ontem ter ido a 44,
devido a diversos factores não entrei.

ULISSES:
Qual a sua opinião sobre a UNH e já agora onde colocaria o Buy-Under?

Deixo-vos um artigo muio interessante do Cramer sobre um assunto que abordo frequentemente aqui nas discussões do Caldeirão: a dificuldade em fechar posições grandes. E qual a melhor forma de o fazer embora, à partida, possa parecer uma irracionalidade.

Um abraço,
Ulisses


"Clueless Sellers Batter UnitedHealth"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
5/10/2006 10:43 AM EDT

Let's talk about the way trading works. I have been adamant that the major holders that are rumored to be selling UnitedHealth (UNH:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) have been killing each other and the stock for no reason whatsoever.

Most people have no idea what I am talking about. They don't know about position trading. I do. I married a position trader. I became one myself. I have done it for years.

When you are selling a stock and you have millions of shares to go, what you are supposed to do is go into a major firm and say, "Look, I have 50 million shares of this stock. It's at $50, and I want out. What will you bid me for all 50 million shares?" If the stock is at $50, chances are that the firm might bid you $47. If you want out bad enough, you hit the bid. We get an order imbalance, the firm merchandizes the block and life continues. The stock bounces on its own merits.

Until the next seller comes along, who goes to a different firm and does the same thing. That's position trading. It allows stocks to bottom, it gives the best price to the sellers possible and the buyers do fine.

That's not what's happening here. Instead, the sellers are just parceling stock out every day to different brokers -- a million here, a million there -- which is why it is so hard for UnitedHealth to find a bottom.

All three of the biggest owners of this stock -- Fidelity, Marsico and Janus -- are rumored to be sellers. That's 120 million, 69 million and 55 million shares, respectively, a lot of supply.

It can be put away by doing as I suggest. But they either won't or don't know how to do it that way.

Rumors aside, whoever the sellers actually are, they just keep selling the stock every day, they never take it to a bid, they keep hitting the Street, different firms, with piecemeal sales of a million here and a million there to all different brokers. Each sell-side firm then gets long the stock, doesn't see it coming each time and is buried. It isn't cricket to work with multiple firms on this stuff; you are supposed to work with one, but these sellers are burying everyone with UnitedHealth.

Consequently, every sell-side brokerage firm has UnitedHealth up the wazoo from the sellers, and these guys just keep hitting them with even more supply.

Today the selling continues, despite the upgrade by Citigroup, with the same sellers banging it down. They want out, they are one-way folks, they won't change their mind until they are finished.

Which is why it is so hard for UnitedHealth to find a bottom. Because every brokerage firm is stuck holding it, and wants to sell it into any strength. Then the sellers will just come back again, after it lifts. They still don't get how things are done.

And the process, as awful as it is, continues. It has nothing to do with the options issue, nor does it, at this point, have to do with earnings. Heck, the stock sells below its growth rate. Cheapest it has ever been.

Doesn't matter. When these guys make their decision, they go. And they don't now how to trade. "

(in www.realmoney.com)