CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

josema Escreveu:Olha, lá, já que tens tanta crença........... e se fosses a Fátima e deixasses o pessoal em paz? Achas que já não basta vermos os mercados tal como estão?

Military sources affirm that the United States, Iran, the Gulf emirates and Israel are pushing ahead with preparations for a showdown over Tehran’s nuclear plan.

Washington has begun signaling allied governments in the Persian Gulf and Israel that a US military operation against Iran’s nuclear sites is in the works for 12 to 18 months hence at the soonest. They were advised to start making their own preparations.

Washington and Middle East military sources reveal that the Bush administration has for the first time translated its ambiguous statements - which never “ruled out any options, including the military”- into a clear decision to put preparations in train for likely action within a timeframe ending in the second half of 2007.

The Iranians having made no bones about their refusal to backtrack on uranium enrichment, teams of American officials have fanned out on highly confidential missions to the capitals of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey and Israel. They raised three issues related to possible American strike action:

1. A request to use their bases for US naval and air force attacks on Iran.

2. The backlash potential from Iran against nations supporting US attacks.

3. The supply of advanced American weaponry to the nations in the line of fire as their deterrence against an Iranian counter-attack and as a strategic counterweight to Iran’s missile arsenal.

From their discreet American visitors, the regional governments obtained an outline of the state of play:

US intelligence has finished mapping out the Iranian sites whose destruction its experts estimate will terminate the rogue nuclear program and its aims. The maps take into account American assessments that around 35% of Iran’s designated nuclear sites are dummies built to hoodwink American or Israeli attackers and cause them to throw away their logistic resources and ordinance for nothing.

American intelligence experts are convinced they can distinguish between the real sites and the empty buildings and tunnels constructed as decoys. Even if the Iranians build fresh decoys or relocate active sites, America’s network of spy satellites and planes have them all under close enough surveillance to discover their new locations, and determine which fake installations have covertly been made operational.

Tehran is undoubtedly fully aware of America’s intentions and has been girding up for a military contingency for some time.

In its grand “Great Prophet” sea and air maneuver from March 31 to April 6, the Iranian armed forces displayed a glittering array of new hardware, including various sea missiles, flying boats and submarines, all presented as capable of disrupting oil shipping in the Gulf.

In his warning this week, Khamenei spoke of “seriously jeopardizing” oil supplies, but fought shy of an outright threat to block the Hormuz Strait. Iranian sources believe the supreme leader was thinking in terms of the disruptions of August 1987 and again in 1988, when Iran strewed Gulf waters and the Hormuz Strait with M-08 contact mines of Russian manufacture. The oil traffic proceeded nonetheless in convoys escorted by US warships and aircraft. The convoy escort and minesweeping operation was called Operation Earnest Will. Between August 1987 and April 1988, one supertanker, the 415,000-ton Bridgeton, was hit as well as a US frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts. But although the supplies moved slowly, they never came to a stop.

Now, too, the Iranian ruler is not talking of total stoppage of Gulf navigation, although he did not rule out the possibility of a greater number of oil tankers and US warships falling victim than was the case 18 years ago.

Secretary Rice pooh-poohed the threat, but military and Iranian sources advise caution. The Iranian leadership will not stand by and wait for Washington to finish all its military preparations. Should diplomacy – overt and covert – fail to solve the impasse posed by its nuclear plans, Tehran appears to be gearing up for an attempt to force Washington and its Gulf allies into a round of limited hostilities as a means of deterring them from an all-out attack on its nuclear installations.

Military sources affirm that the United States, Iran, the Gulf emirates and Israel are pushing ahead with preparations for a showdown over Tehran’s nuclear plan.

Washington has begun signaling allied governments in the Persian Gulf and Israel that a US military operation against Iran’s nuclear sites is in the works for 12 to 18 months hence at the soonest. They were advised to start making their own preparations.

Washington and Middle East military sources reveal that the Bush administration has for the first time translated its ambiguous statements - which never “ruled out any options, including the military”- into a clear decision to put preparations in train for likely action within a timeframe ending in the second half of 2007.

The Iranians having made no bones about their refusal to backtrack on uranium enrichment, teams of American officials have fanned out on highly confidential missions to the capitals of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey and Israel. They raised three issues related to possible American strike action:

1. A request to use their bases for US naval and air force attacks on Iran.

2. The backlash potential from Iran against nations supporting US attacks.

3. The supply of advanced American weaponry to the nations in the line of fire as their deterrence against an Iranian counter-attack and as a strategic counterweight to Iran’s missile arsenal.

From their discreet American visitors, the regional governments obtained an outline of the state of play:

US intelligence has finished mapping out the Iranian sites whose destruction its experts estimate will terminate the rogue nuclear program and its aims. The maps take into account American assessments that around 35% of Iran’s designated nuclear sites are dummies built to hoodwink American or Israeli attackers and cause them to throw away their logistic resources and ordinance for nothing.

American intelligence experts are convinced they can distinguish between the real sites and the empty buildings and tunnels constructed as decoys. Even if the Iranians build fresh decoys or relocate active sites, America’s network of spy satellites and planes have them all under close enough surveillance to discover their new locations, and determine which fake installations have covertly been made operational.

Tehran is undoubtedly fully aware of America’s intentions and has been girding up for a military contingency for some time.

In its grand “Great Prophet” sea and air maneuver from March 31 to April 6, the Iranian armed forces displayed a glittering array of new hardware, including various sea missiles, flying boats and submarines, all presented as capable of disrupting oil shipping in the Gulf.

In his warning this week, Khamenei spoke of “seriously jeopardizing” oil supplies, but fought shy of an outright threat to block the Hormuz Strait. Iranian sources believe the supreme leader was thinking in terms of the disruptions of August 1987 and again in 1988, when Iran strewed Gulf waters and the Hormuz Strait with M-08 contact mines of Russian manufacture. The oil traffic proceeded nonetheless in convoys escorted by US warships and aircraft. The convoy escort and minesweeping operation was called Operation Earnest Will. Between August 1987 and April 1988, one supertanker, the 415,000-ton Bridgeton, was hit as well as a US frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts. But although the supplies moved slowly, they never came to a stop.

Now, too, the Iranian ruler is not talking of total stoppage of Gulf navigation, although he did not rule out the possibility of a greater number of oil tankers and US warships falling victim than was the case 18 years ago.

Secretary Rice pooh-poohed the threat, but military and Iranian sources advise caution. The Iranian leadership will not stand by and wait for Washington to finish all its military preparations. Should diplomacy – overt and covert – fail to solve the impasse posed by its nuclear plans, Tehran appears to be gearing up for an attempt to force Washington and its Gulf allies into a round of limited hostilities as a means of deterring them from an all-out attack on its nuclear installations.

EUA admitem utilizar arma atómica contra Irão

A administração de George W. Bush admite lançar bombardeamentos maciços contra o Irão, incluindo nucleares, para destruir uma instalação suspeita de fabricar armas atómicas, afirma a revista New Yorker.

Segundo a revista, Bush e outros responsáveis da Casa Branca consideram o presidente iraniano Mahmud Ahmadinejad como um Adolf Hitler em potencial.

«É o nome que eles utilizam», escreve o jornalista Seymour Hersh, autor do artigo, citando um antigo alto responsável dos serviços secretos norte-americanos.

Um conselheiro do Pentágono afirma por seu turno, sob anonimato, que «a Casa Branca considera que a única maneira de resolver o problema é alterar a estrutura do poder no Irão, e isso quer dizer a guerra».

O antigo responsável dos serviços de informações descreve os preparativos como «enormes», «febris» e «operacionais», precisa Seymour Hersh.

Um antigo responsável da Defesa indica que os preparativos militares são fundados na crença de que «bombardeamentos no Irão humilhariam a direcção religiosa e conduziriam a população a revoltar- se e derrubar o governo», escreve ainda o New Yorker.

Nas últimas semanas, o presidente Bush iniciou discretamente uma série de discussões sobre planos para o Irão com senadores e membros da Câmara dos Representantes.

Uma das opções encaradas compreende a possível utilização de armas nucleares tácticas de destruição de arsenais como o B61-11, com o fim de destruir a principal unidade de produção nuclear iraniana situada em Natanz, acrescenta a revista.

Mas o antigo responsável dos serviços secretos afirma que a opção nuclear provocou discórdia nos meios militares e certos oficiais já falaram em demitir-se se a opção nuclear não for excluída.

«Existe nos militares um forte sentimento de oposição à utilização de armas nucleares contra outros países», acrescenta a New Yorker, que cita um conselheiro do Pentágono.

Este conselheiro considera que um bombardeamento do Irão poderia provocar uma «reacção em cadeia» de ataques contra os interesses e os cidadãos dos Estados Unidos no mundo e poderia reforçar o Hezbollah.

«Se o fizermos, a metade sul do Iraque inflamar-se-á», disse este conselheiro à New Yorker.

Diário Digital / Lusa

08-04-2006 12:00:13

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