Entry Level: To every stock, there must be a reason
Fonte: iht.com
On any given day, investors can find myriad views on stocks that someone thinks ought to be sold. Here's the thing: The decision to part with a stock, no matter what mass sell-offs might suggest, should still be an individualized process.
While there is nothing wrong with following news reports and financial commentary, neither should be a substitute for one's own well-considered gut check.
"You have a reason for holding every stock that you do," said Pat Dorsey, director of stock analysis for the research company Morningstar and the author of a 2004 book, "The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing." If one's initial reason for buying a stock no longer exists, Dorsey said, "then it may be time to sell."
When it comes to his personal portfolio, Dorsey rarely makes a decision to sell a stock on the basis of weekly or monthly market activity. Instead, he likes to review his portfolio once a quarter, looking for which stocks, if any, should be culled. Dorsey will look at a variety of things, not least of which is his original reason for buying a stock - something he makes a point of noting with every stock. Dorsey refers back to those notes quarterly, looking for signs of deterioration not necessarily reflected in the current share price.
Among those signs would be a weakened competitive position as evidenced by consecutive declines in sales growth. Likewise, he will look to see how the company is digesting its acquisitions. Declining cash flow from operations, as evidenced on the balance sheet, is a red flag and could prompt a sale, particularly if the company is what Dorsey refers to as a "serial acquirer."
Dorsey also looks for stocks that have become clearly overvalued. "Things do get irrationally priced at times," he said. The simplest and quickest way to check for overvaluation, he said, is to look at a company's price/earnings ratio. "If it is very substantially above its long-run average," he said, "it's probably time to get out."
Dorsey also looks for stocks that might have matured and are showing slower growth. If he does not deem it a core holding - perhaps one yielding steady dividends - he may drop it in favor of a stock with a higher potential for returns.
Lastly, Dorsey will try to cull stocks that account for a disproportionate chunk of his portfolio's value. "If you took a bet on a company and it has done really well and now accounts for 15 to 20 percent of your portfolio, it might be time to think of taking something off the table," he said. "It is very hard to do, but for most individuals, having more than 15 percent of your portfolio in one stock is simply courting too much risk."
Tom Gardener, co-founder of The Motley Fool, an investment Web site, says he always measures a stock's performance by its management team and by the stake those at the top hold in the equity. "If I see a pretty shabby leadership that doesn't own any of the stock," he said, a sale could be in order.
To determine whether this is the case, Gardener will turn to company official filings (in the United States, a 14A form) and research the company's ownership structure. For example, he cited Flamel Technologies, a French biopharmaceutical company that The Motley Fool recently featured as one of its Hidden Gems. According to Thomson Financial/First Call, which tracks analyst recommendation trends, the stock has both "strong buy" and "strong sell" recommendations. In casting his vote in favor of holding Flamel, Gardener pointed out that Oscar Schafer, who leads a hedge fund called OSS Capital Management, not only backed the removal of the company's former chief executive, but also followed up by committing to a 13.76 ownership stake in the company - a fact easily found on Yahoo Finance.com.
When it comes to highly volatile stocks like those in the biopharmaceutical and technology arenas, Lise Buyer, a former industry analyst who now manages her own investments, tries to sell in shifts, "up whatever percent I set as a goal." For example, Buyer might sell 25 percent of a stock that goes up 20 percent. She might sell another 25 percent it if goes up 30 percent, and so on. "If there is a big piece of news that moves the stock a lot, and if I don't have any particular basis for believing it is deeply misunderstood and therefore undervalued, I'll sell after the news," she said.
There are some less volatile holdings - for example, consumer product companies - that Buyer would buy to hold, often for years. "The selling strategy depends entirely on why I bought the stock in the first place," she said. "Sometimes it's momentum, or in anticipation of some particular event and sometimes, it's long-term growth of the underlying business. Mostly, I sit in funds that I believe in for the long run."