Acabou por se portar bem, não fechou no máximo do dia, mas o fecho é máximo de 5 anos.
Não havendo referências recentes, temos de voltar a olhar para a "big picture", aí os 21000 são incontornáveis. Até lá, ténues referncias aos 17000 e 18000.
Fazendo as contas ao valor que os warrants que tenho em carteira se o nikkei atingir estes níveis, mesmo na maturidade, é uma loucura...
O Japão tem subido muito, é um facto,mas não nos podemos esquecer que andou em 15 de agonia, enquanto os outros iam subindo.
Qual a vossa prespectiva?
Decidi trocar parte dos fundos nipónicos por warrants, valorização já de 43%, ganhando por um lado na valorização do próprio índice, como também na volatilidade.
A quem anda em warrants há mais tempo, qual a melhor maneira de me defender de uma queda da volatilidade? Entar num in the money, tipo call a 13500, mas com menor alavancagem?
UPDATE 4-Japan jobless rate falls, household spending rises
Tue Jan 31, 2006 03:57 AM ET
(Adds Purchasing Managers Index, small business survey)
By Ritsuko Ando
TOKYO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Japan's labour market improved in December as the jobless rate fell to a lower-than-expected 4.4 percent, helping to lift household spending and boosting expectations of firm economic growth ahead.
The unemployment rate was down from 4.6 percent a month earlier and below a consensus forecast of 4.5 percent.
That was still above a seven-year low of 4.2 percent marked in June and September, but officials and economists have said the slight rise in recent months was the result of workers seeking better jobs amid recovering business conditions.
The jobs-to-applicants ratio for December rose to 1.00 from 0.99, meaning 100 jobs were available for every 100 applicants, the first time it had reached the even level since September 1992.
"The unemployment figure shows that the period of stalled economic recovery that we saw in the middle of last year is ending, and that the number of people who are finding work is starting to pick up," said Naoki Iizuka, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"At this rate, we could see the unemployment rate fall to the mid-3 percent range by the end of the upcoming financial year.... A dip into the 3 percent region could have an upward impact on consumer prices," he said.
Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities, said that in addition to the fall in the unemployment rate, the quality of jobs on offer appeared to be improving.
"Full-time jobs are now on the rise, whereas a little while back it was just part-time and contract workers," he said.
Separate government figures on Tuesday showed that spending by salaried workers' households in December rose a higher-than-expected 3.2 percent from a year earlier, and was up 0.4 percent from November.
While details suggested that lower-than-usual temperatures may have forced some consumers to buy stoves and warmer coats, economists said the rise was a sign that consumers were feeling more confident about the economy.
"With the labour market improving, household spending figures are looking good too. With both domestic and external factors positive, October-December GDP (gross domestic product) figures could be very strong," Adachi said.
He forecast fourth-quarter growth would reach 5.4 percent on an annualised basis.
GDP expanded at a real 1.0 percent in annualised terms in the July-September quarter. The government expects the economy to grow 2.7 percent in the current fiscal year to March 31 and 1.9 percent in fiscal 2006/07.
Japan's unemployment rate hit a record 5.5 percent in January 2003 and has been gradually falling since then.
The annual average jobless rate fell for the third straight year in 2005 to 4.4 percent, down from 4.7 percent in 2004 and the lowest since 1998.
Japan's economy has been gradually recovering in the last few years after more than a decade of stop-and-go growth.
The recovery started with robust exports to China and the United States but has now spread to domestic sectors, such as consumption and capital spending.
In another sign of strong growth, a survey on Tuesday showed manufacturing activity in Japan expanded in January at its fastest pace in at least four years.
The NTC Research/Nomura/JMMA Purchasing Managers Index, which gives an early snapshot of manufacturing activity, jumped to a seasonally adjusted 57.0, the highest reading since the poll was launched in October 2001. It was 55.7 in December.
A reading above 50 in the PMI, compiled from a string of diffusion indexes, suggests a business expansion.
A separate survey by the government-affiliated Shoko Chukin Bank showed smaller businesses lagged behind the recovery, with the small firms' sentiment index at 49.6, down from 50.1 a month earlier. But markets focused on the upbeat jobs data and strong corporate earnings results.
On Tuesday, the Nikkei 225 share average rose 0.6 percent to 16,649.82, closing above the 16,600 level for the first time in 5-½ years.
Tokyo's stock market rose about 40 percent in 2005 thanks to improving exports and hopes that recovering domestic demand would support further gains in corporate profits.
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