Analysts see housing-market decline looming in 2006
Enviado: 7/12/2005 16:34As taxas de juro começam a "quebrar" finalmente o sector imobiliário?
A dita bolha vai começar e desinflar de forma controlada ou....
Builder stocks down on reports
Analysts see housing-market decline looming in 2006
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:25 AM ET Dec. 7, 2005
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Homebuilder stocks were in retreat Wednesday morning after several reports pointed to a pullback in the housing market next year.
The U.S. market for homes will experience a significant drop-off in 2006, according to UCLA's Anderson Forecast to be released Wednesday, the Associated Press reported.
The decline in the housing market will probably take place over several years and as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial-sector jobs will likely be lost, AP said. The pullback will hurt the nation's economy but will not cause a recession, the news service reported, citing the Anderson Forecast.
Also Wednesday, analysts at Credit Suisse First Boston on Wednesday said their monthly survey revealed the housing market continued its downward adjustment in November, noting that while "it is difficult to get a definitive read on a market during the slow winter months . . . prices are climbing in only select markets and price points, incentives are more prevalent than is seasonally typical, and demand from investors is abating or shifting to lower cost areas like Texas."
As several markets cool off, "it appears that the ramifications of the speculative euphoria in 2004 and 2005 are starting to materialize, as inventories have crept up concurrent with slowing home price appreciation," the analysts wrote in a research note.
"With interest rates on the rise and mortgage scrutiny gaining traction, we expect the market to continue its downward adjustment, but should know with more certainty after the seasonally slow winter months," CSFB said.
In early dealings Wednesday, shares of Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) lost 1.1% to $34.95, Centex Corp. (CTX) shed 1.1% at $72.18, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) was down 1.4% to $49.82 and Lennar Corp. (LEN) lost 1.5% to $57.50.
The weakness in the homebuilder sector comes one day after the National Association of Realtors said U.S. pending home sales fell 3.2% in October to a level 3.3% lower than a year ago.
"The drop in pending home sales is an affirmation that we are experiencing a modest slowing in the housing sector," said David Lereah, chief economist at the NAR.
"The index is pointing to a soft landing for home sales, which will help to correct the inventory shortages that have dominated housing over the last five years," he added.
Hovnanian is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the closing bell Wednesday, with analysts on average forecasting earnings of $2.42 a share, according to a Thomson First Call survey.
A dita bolha vai começar e desinflar de forma controlada ou....
Builder stocks down on reports
Analysts see housing-market decline looming in 2006
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:25 AM ET Dec. 7, 2005
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Homebuilder stocks were in retreat Wednesday morning after several reports pointed to a pullback in the housing market next year.
The U.S. market for homes will experience a significant drop-off in 2006, according to UCLA's Anderson Forecast to be released Wednesday, the Associated Press reported.
The decline in the housing market will probably take place over several years and as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial-sector jobs will likely be lost, AP said. The pullback will hurt the nation's economy but will not cause a recession, the news service reported, citing the Anderson Forecast.
Also Wednesday, analysts at Credit Suisse First Boston on Wednesday said their monthly survey revealed the housing market continued its downward adjustment in November, noting that while "it is difficult to get a definitive read on a market during the slow winter months . . . prices are climbing in only select markets and price points, incentives are more prevalent than is seasonally typical, and demand from investors is abating or shifting to lower cost areas like Texas."
As several markets cool off, "it appears that the ramifications of the speculative euphoria in 2004 and 2005 are starting to materialize, as inventories have crept up concurrent with slowing home price appreciation," the analysts wrote in a research note.
"With interest rates on the rise and mortgage scrutiny gaining traction, we expect the market to continue its downward adjustment, but should know with more certainty after the seasonally slow winter months," CSFB said.
In early dealings Wednesday, shares of Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) lost 1.1% to $34.95, Centex Corp. (CTX) shed 1.1% at $72.18, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) was down 1.4% to $49.82 and Lennar Corp. (LEN) lost 1.5% to $57.50.
The weakness in the homebuilder sector comes one day after the National Association of Realtors said U.S. pending home sales fell 3.2% in October to a level 3.3% lower than a year ago.
"The drop in pending home sales is an affirmation that we are experiencing a modest slowing in the housing sector," said David Lereah, chief economist at the NAR.
"The index is pointing to a soft landing for home sales, which will help to correct the inventory shortages that have dominated housing over the last five years," he added.
Hovnanian is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the closing bell Wednesday, with analysts on average forecasting earnings of $2.42 a share, according to a Thomson First Call survey.