Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Info....]

bem, o que este senhor diz nunca passa desapercebido e... cá fica o que prevê para os States até final da Primavera de 2006:

TrimTabs sees rally - Liquidity tracker says U.S. stocks may soar 20% by spring
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:39 AM ET Nov. 15, 2005

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- TrimTabs Investment Research predicted Tuesday that U.S. stocks could rise 20% from current levels by the end of May 2006 on record-setting buyback activity, lower valuations from the flow of money overseas and a build-up of sideline cash.

"The liquidity data we track suggests that the smartest money in the stock market -- public companies and the insiders who run them -- is extraordinarily bullish on its own shares," said Charles Biderman, chief executive at TrimTabs, in a statement.

Cash-rich companies are buying back shares at a $6.9 billion daily clip for the month ended Nov. 10, the highest level since September 2001, while new cash takeovers have risen to $1.2 billion daily, according to TrimTabs.

"It all comes down to supply and demand," Biderman said. "When the float shrinks, the market and the price of stocks move up."

Valuations for U.S. stocks have also moved lower as fund investors have favored foreign companies, with enthusiasm for non-U.S. stocks reaching a "fever pitch," TrimTabs noted.

"So individuals are ignoring the U.S. market and going overseas, but if they notice what corporations are doing and that U.S. stocks are cheap, they will pay attention soon," Biderman said.

Finally, like public companies, individual investors are accumulating large amounts of cash, the Santa Rosa, Calif.-based firm said. For the year ended in the third quarter, cash in all savings vehicles has jumped by $633 billion, growing 74% faster than the previous year, according to TrimTabs.

Higher take-home pay, mortgage refinancings, and corporate buy-backs and dividends are all driving the trend, the company said.

"Since individual investors have been wary of U.S. equities, much of this cash has not found its way into the U.S. stock market," Biderman noted. "But when fears subside, this cash is quite likely to flow there."