Moskow vai dizendo de sua justiça...
Enviado: 15/11/2005 16:42já foi mexendo como mercado de divisas e obrigacionista, desde que foi falando...
10:30am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: FED SHOULD STAY REACTIVE, NOT PRE-EMPTIVE
10:30am 11/15/05 FED'S MOSKOW: ECONOMY COULD ADJUST TO HOUSE PRICE SLOWING
8:46am 11/15/05 FED'S MOSKOW: U.S. INTEREST RATES STILL TOO LOW
8:46am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: CONTAINING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IS KEY
8:46am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: UNDERLYING U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
8:46am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: RISK TO UPBEAT FORECAST LIES IN ENERGY, HOME PRICES
Fed's Moskow sees higher rates; Home-price drop, resumption of oil climb risk to forecast
By Rachel Koning, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:47 AM ET Nov. 15, 2005
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates and is prepared to turn more aggressive should expectations for higher inflation become embedded in the U.S. economy, Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow said Tuesday.
"It will take appropriate monetary policy to keep inflation and inflation expectations well contained. For me, at this time such policy likely entails further removal of policy accommodation," Moskow said at an economic outlook breakfast attended by local business leaders.
"And if inflation expectations did become unhinged, this might require a stronger response."
Moskow is among the regional bank heads who hold votes on the Fed's rotational interest-rate policy panel this year.
Other Fed policymakers have said they agree the target isn't yet at neutral -- not stimulating growth and not holding growth back.
The Fed next meets Dec. 13 and is widely seen raising its 4% lending target to 4.25% then. The course for policy from there becomes less certain, although short-term interest-rate futures markets have priced in strong odds for a quarter-point increase in late January as well.
The Fed has raised its target 12 times without pause since June 2004, lifting rates from 40-year lows to four-year highs currently.
The Fed has remained focused on inflation even after deadly hurricanes in the southern U.S. and the resulting runup for already high gasoline prices soured consumer sentiment.
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the core rate of personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy because it shows how widespread inflation is. This indicator is running at an increase of 2% over the past 12 months. This is at the upper end of the range that Moskow and some of his colleagues have said is consistent with price stability.
Moskow made clear that he's just as worried about the perception of inflation as its actual existence.
Storm-related price spikes could prove short-lived, resulting in a one-time pass through from businesses to core inflation to cover rising costs. Although energy prices are still high, they have been falling recently, and futures markets expect energy prices to continue falling modestly next year, he said.
Yet, "if we indeed start to see a string of higher inflation numbers, then people may begin to expect permanently higher inflation. Such expectations could become self-fulfilling if business and households factor them into their spending and investing decisions," he said. "We could then have a sustained, higher rate of inflation."
Moskow is looking beyond the devastation of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in determining the best course for monetary policy.
"Abstracting from the effects of the storms, current economic growth appears to be self-sustaining because the underlying economic fundamentals continue to be sound," he said.
On the consumer side, employment gains have increased incomes, equity and home price gains have boosted wealth, and households have had little difficulty servicing debt.
For businesses, expanding sales, flush cash positions, low capital costs, and the need to replace and upgrade aging equipment and software imply that capital spending will continue to increase, Moskow said.
The flip side of oil prices
Among the biggest risks to a solid, sustainable growth outlook are home-price depreciation and high energy bills, particularly if oil and natural gas prices rise more even more dramatically, because that could cut into consumer spending, he said.
"There is little tendency for housing price declines in a particular region to spill over to a more general drop in prices at the national level. However, I am starting to hear more anecdotes about softening in housing markets, and seeing more reports that home prices are increasing at a slower rate," Moskow said.
The Fed would have time to respond, he says.
"Depending on the configuration of other economic factors, it seems likely that these gradual aggregate changes would allow time for any appropriate recalibration of policy -- if in fact, one is needed."
10:30am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: FED SHOULD STAY REACTIVE, NOT PRE-EMPTIVE
10:30am 11/15/05 FED'S MOSKOW: ECONOMY COULD ADJUST TO HOUSE PRICE SLOWING
8:46am 11/15/05 FED'S MOSKOW: U.S. INTEREST RATES STILL TOO LOW
8:46am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: CONTAINING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IS KEY
8:46am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: UNDERLYING U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
8:46am 11/15/05 MOSKOW: RISK TO UPBEAT FORECAST LIES IN ENERGY, HOME PRICES
Fed's Moskow sees higher rates; Home-price drop, resumption of oil climb risk to forecast
By Rachel Koning, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:47 AM ET Nov. 15, 2005
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates and is prepared to turn more aggressive should expectations for higher inflation become embedded in the U.S. economy, Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow said Tuesday.
"It will take appropriate monetary policy to keep inflation and inflation expectations well contained. For me, at this time such policy likely entails further removal of policy accommodation," Moskow said at an economic outlook breakfast attended by local business leaders.
"And if inflation expectations did become unhinged, this might require a stronger response."
Moskow is among the regional bank heads who hold votes on the Fed's rotational interest-rate policy panel this year.
Other Fed policymakers have said they agree the target isn't yet at neutral -- not stimulating growth and not holding growth back.
The Fed next meets Dec. 13 and is widely seen raising its 4% lending target to 4.25% then. The course for policy from there becomes less certain, although short-term interest-rate futures markets have priced in strong odds for a quarter-point increase in late January as well.
The Fed has raised its target 12 times without pause since June 2004, lifting rates from 40-year lows to four-year highs currently.
The Fed has remained focused on inflation even after deadly hurricanes in the southern U.S. and the resulting runup for already high gasoline prices soured consumer sentiment.
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the core rate of personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy because it shows how widespread inflation is. This indicator is running at an increase of 2% over the past 12 months. This is at the upper end of the range that Moskow and some of his colleagues have said is consistent with price stability.
Moskow made clear that he's just as worried about the perception of inflation as its actual existence.
Storm-related price spikes could prove short-lived, resulting in a one-time pass through from businesses to core inflation to cover rising costs. Although energy prices are still high, they have been falling recently, and futures markets expect energy prices to continue falling modestly next year, he said.
Yet, "if we indeed start to see a string of higher inflation numbers, then people may begin to expect permanently higher inflation. Such expectations could become self-fulfilling if business and households factor them into their spending and investing decisions," he said. "We could then have a sustained, higher rate of inflation."
Moskow is looking beyond the devastation of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in determining the best course for monetary policy.
"Abstracting from the effects of the storms, current economic growth appears to be self-sustaining because the underlying economic fundamentals continue to be sound," he said.
On the consumer side, employment gains have increased incomes, equity and home price gains have boosted wealth, and households have had little difficulty servicing debt.
For businesses, expanding sales, flush cash positions, low capital costs, and the need to replace and upgrade aging equipment and software imply that capital spending will continue to increase, Moskow said.
The flip side of oil prices
Among the biggest risks to a solid, sustainable growth outlook are home-price depreciation and high energy bills, particularly if oil and natural gas prices rise more even more dramatically, because that could cut into consumer spending, he said.
"There is little tendency for housing price declines in a particular region to spill over to a more general drop in prices at the national level. However, I am starting to hear more anecdotes about softening in housing markets, and seeing more reports that home prices are increasing at a slower rate," Moskow said.
The Fed would have time to respond, he says.
"Depending on the configuration of other economic factors, it seems likely that these gradual aggregate changes would allow time for any appropriate recalibration of policy -- if in fact, one is needed."