WHO: Human flu pandemic inevitable
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WHO: Human flu pandemic inevitable
Fonte: http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditio ... index.html
GENEVA, Switzerland (AP) -- A deadly new global pandemic of human influenza is inevitable and suffering will be "incalculable" unless the world is ready, the chief of the U.N. health agency said Monday. The World Bank put the possible economic cost at a minimum of $800 billion.
"We have been experiencing a relentless spread of avian flu" among migratory birds and domestic poultry, Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organization told a meeting of 600 health experts and planners, the first attempt to devise a global strategy in case the bird flu virus changes to transmit easily among humans.
Lee stressed that a human flu pandemic has yet to begin anywhere in the world.
"However, the signs are clear that is coming," he said, noting that a changed avian flu virus caused the deadly "Spanish" flu pandemic that killed tens of millions of people in 1918-1919.
Already the virulent H5N1 strain of avian flu, which appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, is killing birds in 15 countries of Europe and Asia, he said.
"It is only a matter of time before an avian flu virus -- most likely H5N1 -- acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to human, sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza," Lee said.
A senior World Bank economist told the meeting that a global human flu pandemic could cause world gross domestic product to drop by 2 percent or more. That would amount to about $800 billion (675 billion euros) over the course of a year, said Milan Brahmbhatt, the World Bank's lead economist for the East Asia and Pacific region, basing estimates on a comparison with the economic costs of the SARS virus.
A lot of the cost could be caused by "panic and disruption," said Brahmbhatt, referring to what happened during the SARS outbreak in 2003, when most of the economic impact was caused by people trying to avoid infection.
During the second quarter of 2003, the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome caused East Asia's GDP to drop by 2 percent, Brahmbhatt said during the opening session of the three-day meeting of scientists, health experts and government and business representatives.
Most of the losses were caused by people avoiding travel, staying home from work and going out less to eat and shop, said Brahmbhatt.
About 60 percent of countries have a pandemic preparedness plan, but in most cases it is only a piece of paper, and those plans "need to move to exercise and rehearsal," said Mike Ryan, WHO's outbreak response director.
Although bird flu has recurred over the years, scientists have been watching H5N1 since its impact on humans started to be noticed. In early 2004 officials announced that three people -- an adult and two children -- had died from the disease in Vietnam.
Since then more than 120 people, most of whom were in close contact with poultry, have come down with the disease in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia, WHO says. More than half of the people infected have died.
Since then more than 150 million chickens and other poultry have died or been culled, but that has not halted the spread of the disease to birds in central Asia, Russia and eastern Europe.
Around the world governments have made plans for the human influenza that would result if the virus mutates so that people could easily infect each other. Developing a vaccine is hampered because it is unknown exactly what form the deadly virus would take.
The result has left many governments stocking up on antiviral drugs that work against regular flu and are believed to be the best immediate weapon to confront a pandemic until a vaccine can be produced.
Preparations are also being made to protect domestic poultry flocks by requiring that they be kept under cover or vaccinated.
"For the first time in human history, we have a chance to prepare ourselves for a pandemic before it arrives," Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO's top official in charge of monitoring avian influenza. "It is incumbent upon the global community to act now."
The world has seen four flu pandemics since 1890, the last one in the late 1960s. An ordinary flu epidemic kills thousands of people, but pandemics can be much worse. The pandemic of 1918-19 killed up to 40 million or 50 million people, WHO officials have said.
Dr. David Nabarro, a senior WHO expert appointed by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in September to coordinate the global response, said "each country needs to increase its capacity to do what is expected of them."
Nabarro has said a new flu pandemic could kill between 5 million and 150 million people, but WHO's flu spokesman Dick Thompson said the agency considers a maximum death toll of 7.4 million a more reasoned forecast.
Scientists have made all sorts of predictions, ranging from less than 2 million to 360 million.
Besides scientific concerns, one major element to be discussed will be how to pay for the preparations on a country, regional and global level.
The cost could be enormous. Last week U.S. President George W. Bush proposed that the United States spend $7.1 billion to prepare for a flu pandemic.
GENEVA, Switzerland (AP) -- A deadly new global pandemic of human influenza is inevitable and suffering will be "incalculable" unless the world is ready, the chief of the U.N. health agency said Monday. The World Bank put the possible economic cost at a minimum of $800 billion.
"We have been experiencing a relentless spread of avian flu" among migratory birds and domestic poultry, Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organization told a meeting of 600 health experts and planners, the first attempt to devise a global strategy in case the bird flu virus changes to transmit easily among humans.
Lee stressed that a human flu pandemic has yet to begin anywhere in the world.
"However, the signs are clear that is coming," he said, noting that a changed avian flu virus caused the deadly "Spanish" flu pandemic that killed tens of millions of people in 1918-1919.
Already the virulent H5N1 strain of avian flu, which appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, is killing birds in 15 countries of Europe and Asia, he said.
"It is only a matter of time before an avian flu virus -- most likely H5N1 -- acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to human, sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza," Lee said.
A senior World Bank economist told the meeting that a global human flu pandemic could cause world gross domestic product to drop by 2 percent or more. That would amount to about $800 billion (675 billion euros) over the course of a year, said Milan Brahmbhatt, the World Bank's lead economist for the East Asia and Pacific region, basing estimates on a comparison with the economic costs of the SARS virus.
A lot of the cost could be caused by "panic and disruption," said Brahmbhatt, referring to what happened during the SARS outbreak in 2003, when most of the economic impact was caused by people trying to avoid infection.
During the second quarter of 2003, the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome caused East Asia's GDP to drop by 2 percent, Brahmbhatt said during the opening session of the three-day meeting of scientists, health experts and government and business representatives.
Most of the losses were caused by people avoiding travel, staying home from work and going out less to eat and shop, said Brahmbhatt.
About 60 percent of countries have a pandemic preparedness plan, but in most cases it is only a piece of paper, and those plans "need to move to exercise and rehearsal," said Mike Ryan, WHO's outbreak response director.
Although bird flu has recurred over the years, scientists have been watching H5N1 since its impact on humans started to be noticed. In early 2004 officials announced that three people -- an adult and two children -- had died from the disease in Vietnam.
Since then more than 120 people, most of whom were in close contact with poultry, have come down with the disease in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia, WHO says. More than half of the people infected have died.
Since then more than 150 million chickens and other poultry have died or been culled, but that has not halted the spread of the disease to birds in central Asia, Russia and eastern Europe.
Around the world governments have made plans for the human influenza that would result if the virus mutates so that people could easily infect each other. Developing a vaccine is hampered because it is unknown exactly what form the deadly virus would take.
The result has left many governments stocking up on antiviral drugs that work against regular flu and are believed to be the best immediate weapon to confront a pandemic until a vaccine can be produced.
Preparations are also being made to protect domestic poultry flocks by requiring that they be kept under cover or vaccinated.
"For the first time in human history, we have a chance to prepare ourselves for a pandemic before it arrives," Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO's top official in charge of monitoring avian influenza. "It is incumbent upon the global community to act now."
The world has seen four flu pandemics since 1890, the last one in the late 1960s. An ordinary flu epidemic kills thousands of people, but pandemics can be much worse. The pandemic of 1918-19 killed up to 40 million or 50 million people, WHO officials have said.
Dr. David Nabarro, a senior WHO expert appointed by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in September to coordinate the global response, said "each country needs to increase its capacity to do what is expected of them."
Nabarro has said a new flu pandemic could kill between 5 million and 150 million people, but WHO's flu spokesman Dick Thompson said the agency considers a maximum death toll of 7.4 million a more reasoned forecast.
Scientists have made all sorts of predictions, ranging from less than 2 million to 360 million.
Besides scientific concerns, one major element to be discussed will be how to pay for the preparations on a country, regional and global level.
The cost could be enormous. Last week U.S. President George W. Bush proposed that the United States spend $7.1 billion to prepare for a flu pandemic.
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