Research Saxo Bank via LJ Carregosa, que coloquei no Club Invest a
22 Agosto
Porquê é o Japão, o país onde deve investir o seu dinheiro?
De Saxo Bank:
O que tem acontecido ultimamente?
1. Os dados mais recentes mostram . . .
2. A privatização dos correios japoneses . . .
3. Entradas de Capital… nos máximos dos últimos 16 meses. . .
O que tem acontecido ultimamente?
1. Os indicadores económicos mais recentes mostram sinais fortes que a economia japonesa está de boa saúde e que continua no bom caminho. O Banco do Japão já fala em inflação na sua economia para o final de 2005, ou na pior das hipóteses, para o início de 2006, sendo que o próprio governo do país partilha essa mesma expectativa.
2. A privatização dos Correios japoneses foi inicialmente rejeitada pelo parlamento, pelo que o Primeiro-ministro Koizumi dissolveu a Câmara Baixa e convocou novas eleições para 11 de Setembro. Ele fê-lo com a intenção de formar uma frente unida, conseguindo afastar os 18 membros que votaram contra nessa matéria. Se ele vencer as eleições a privatização irá avançar e mais reformas serão propostas.
3. Entradas de capital, em termos de compras de acções e obrigações por parte de investidores estrangeiros, estão a níveis máximos dos últimos 16 meses. Estes fluxos ‘puxaram’ o Nikkei 225 para máximos dos últimos 4 anos, que está neste momento a negociar confortavelmente acima do nível dos 12.000 pontos
The three points above support our positive view on the Japanese economy. Fact is, the economic data out of Japan is the best the market has seen in 10 years. The only thing lacking right now is increased household spending, which has not lived up to expectations. Traditionally Japanese workers get bonuses twice a year and the bonus can add up to several months pay. This does not, however, mean that the workers increase their spending, as the Japanese want to see their base salaries increase before doing so. With the present momentum seen in the Japanese economy, that is bound to happen and we should see consumer-spending pick up over the coming months. The forecast for inflation in the Japanese economy, maybe even as soon as by end of this year, is good news, as the Japanese have lived with deflation for a long time. Inflation will increase disposable income and hence spur consumption.
The privatization of the state-run Postal Service in Japan is of great importance. Already in 2001 when Koizumi won the election he said that this reform was needed. The Japanese Postal Service employs 400,000 people, has deposits of $2 trillion and a total of 24,700 offices. It is the largest savings bank in the world, leaving Japanese banks at a disadvantage as it absorbs huge amounts of household and corporate assets. The Postal Service holds 140 trillion JPY of government debt, amounting to 1/5 of the total outstanding government debt. The fact that the Japanese government has access to the postal funds through the issuance of securities is one of the reasons Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of about 150% and thus a low credit rating.
The privatization is a big step in Koizumi’s quest to reduce national debt and cut the government’s ties to Japanese business. Simply put, the privatization would inevitably transform this entity into a more dynamic business, as it would seek to turn a profit and rid itself of inefficient practices. If privatized, the postal business would be split into four entities; savings, insurance, delivery and counter services by 2007. The slump in the Nikkei 225 up until the bill was rejected proves how important investors think the privatization is. The latest polls, made by Nihon Keizai newspaper, suggest that Koizumi, actually the longest serving prime minister since 1987, is gaining popularity. If Koizumi were to win with improved majority for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party we would see a very strong prime minister and cabinet. If the polls continue to show strong support for Koizumi we should see stocks and yields go higher still as the political risk premium in the market would fade.
The demand for Japanese stocks from foreign investors is very high. Last week saw net foreign purchase of 495 billion JPY worth of stocks. This is happening in light of the improving economic data and is driving stocks and yields higher. Several of the major global investment banks are upgrading their views on the Japanese markets and are advising their clients to increase their exposure in Japan.
How to trade the comeback in Japan
Equities
In our view, the best way to trade in the Japanese equity market in relation to the expected scenario, is to focus on stocks that benefit from increased domestic demand and consumption. In addition to that we feel that the banking sector should benefit from the privatization of the Postal Service, as it would be split into four different entities. That split-up would mean that a lot of corporations and households, now being served by the Postal Service, would turn to private banking alternatives to maintain a full service concept. In this case we feel the regional banks in Japan would benefit the most.
Tokyo Dome Corp (Ticker: 9681.T)
Tokyo Dome Corp operates an air dome-type baseball stadium and an urban amusement center. In addition to that the company has a retail branch selling various goods and operates financing, hotels, real estate, restaurants and convention and exhibition halls. Tokyo Dome Corp has a market cap of about $1.05 billion and has, as can be seen in the chart below (Bloomberg), had a good year so far, standing on 40% gain for the year. As consumer spending picks up in Japan, this kind of business stands to get a substantial boost. We like the chart as well and at 600 JPY we are buyers and see a potential 20% upside, reaching this years previous high at around 660 JPY. Further out the potential could be even greater.
Bank of Okinawa Ltd (Ticker: 8397.T)
Bank of Okinawa is a regional bank based in Okinawa, providing banking services such as deposits, loans and forex transactions. They also provide financial services in terms of leasing, credit cards and letters of credit. Bank of Okinawa has a market cap of $650 million. As the Postal Service absorbs a large portion of the Japanese household assets, the splitting up of that entity will make it unable to service their clients in all aspects. The privatization should also lead to a quest for efficiency in the Postal Service, meaning several post offices would shut down. That assumed would
provide for a move of household assets from the Postal Service into the private banking sector. In this case we believe many would choose a local bank for their banking business. In this scenario we think Bank of Okinawa is a good choice for a long position.
Enviado: 6/10/2005 8:16
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