James Altucher complementa muito bem a análise do Cramer.
"eBay Acts Like a Grownup"
By James Altucher
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/12/2005 12:07 PM EDT
"Well, the rumors were true. Last week The Wall Street Journal reported that eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) was in talks to buy VoIP-provider Skype for $2 billion to $3 billion, and the New York Post reported the price was going to be somewhere around $5 billion.
The final deal is for eBay to buy Skype for $2.6 billion in cash and stock with another $1.5 billion coming over the next four years based on performance incentives. This deal has implications for eBay, for Internet stocks in general, and for other VoIP plays.
This remains a highly unusual deal for eBay for the reasons I mentioned last week:
As opposed to PayPal, the acquisition of which was highly complementary to eBay's business, Skype really has nothing in common with the eBay auction business. PayPal was already a vendor for eBay and many of eBay's customers were paying for purchases using PayPal. The acquisition tightened the relationship between the shopping experience and the paying experience and brought it all under one roof, allowing a reduction in costs for eBay.
Skype is not a mature business at all and it's unusual (as in it's never happened) for eBay to pay such a large price for an unknown quantity. Skype had $7 million in revenue last year and some estimates say it can make up to $200 million in revenue by 2007, but the reality is -- who knows. And, still, with $200 million in revenue and a $4.1 billion potential acquisition cost, it doesn't really add up.
For a long time eBay has avoided the M&A momentum that swept up many of its competitors and fellow dot-com companies in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Meg Whitman, had remained disciplined and stuck to the business plan that had kept her company profitable and growing from day one, avoiding the M&A pitfalls.
However, mature companies face different problems. This acquisition suggests to me that eBay's auction business is mature and will not grow at the blistering pace (66% in 2003, 40% in 2004) it once did.
Furthermore, with $2.75 billion in cash and spinning off more cash each year, eBay is stabbing for ways to get the cash out the door in exchange for businesses with high return on equity.
Skype has 50 million users, eBay has 116 million users. I do think the one "synergy" that exists is for the companies to crossmarket the services to the other's customer base and I do think the company will be successful at this.
I do not believe the hype that "commerce = communication" and that adding Skype will make it easier for customers to use eBay's auction services. That's what is being claimed now and I just don't take that very seriously.
Whitman said, "Communications is at the heart of e-commerce and community. By combining the two leading e-commerce franchises, eBay and PayPal, with the leader in Internet voice communications, we will create an extraordinarily powerful environment for business on the Net." I really hope she doesn't think people are buying that type of hype and hope anymore. It's just not true.
So now let's see how to value the stock of a mature eBay from here? For the short term at least, they are admitting that days of high-speed growth are over. The company claims it will see profitability from Skype in 2006. But the reality is that it's going to be four to 10 years, at least, before this acquisition is accretive. However, it's possible Skype can be using its currency to continue the land grab in other VoIP stocks by making accretive acquisitions of the smaller players out there. And by using stock in the transaction, they are pretty much telling us they think the stock is overvalued.
I expect eBay, over the next few years to make other expensive acquisitions in order to buy the No. 1 or No. 2 players in other sectors they view as critical to their future success -- regardless of price. The Skype buy signals a critical change in M&A strategy, and I do not think this "lack of accretiveness" will be a one-time event.
I do think the stock has potential for a buy-the-dip comeback over the next week. People are rushing for the door and short-sellers are piling in. I'll note that of the 327 times that eBay has gapped down 1% on the open since it's gone public, it's been up 60% of the time a week later for an average gain, including wins and losses, of 2.84%. Included in this were three successful trades in July.
However, I think that for the long term the stock is going to build a trading range in the $30s and stay there until we either see some of that magical growth again, or until earnings catch up to valuations. "
(in
www.realmoney.com)
Enviado: 15/9/2005 0:15