Cramer: "Fearing a Swarm of Number Cuts"
Enviado: 6/9/2005 14:14Cramer que tem estado muito optimista em relação ao mercado, mostra-se agora algo cauteloso face às estimativas de lucros das empresas que considera muito elevadas.
"Fearing a Swarm of Number Cuts"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/6/2005 8:59 AM EDT
Can't hide it; I am worried about this market. No, it is not the articles about the "tapped out" consumer, nor is it the endless pieces of anecdotal data that say retail's gotten tough.
What I am worried about is the numbers, as always. I think many quarterly and annual earnings estimates are just too high.
It's possible that almost all of the banks, for example, have numbers that are just plain too high or that can't be beaten substantially because of the yield curve.
You have to believe that the housing numbers could get hurt here. They might be too high after this hurricane catastrophe. The catastrophe freezes things, including big purchases. That won't be made up by insurance-paid rebuys from New Orleans people because I am sure most hope they can go back to their old homes. Who can blame them?
The auto companies have been selling their products at cut-rate levels for a long time now, and that's not going to boost gross margins. And while many of the auto companies sell vehicles that aren't gas guzzlers, the big profits are in the guzzlers. It's a whole industry where numbers are too high.
The Boeing (BA:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) strike, while long-term good for Boeing if it wins concessions, could slow down the whole aerospace chain, which, to date, had been blowing away the numbers. Do you really want to be in a titanium play or a cockpit play or a nacelle play if Boeing's production is shut for a quarter?
Retailers could be hurt in two ways: People don't want to shop with gasoline so high, and lots of retailers lost capacity in the Southeast from the storm. Not to mention that they might not be able to get supplies.
Casual restaurants can't do well when gasoline's above $3; it's better to eat at home. You even have to wonder if Domino's (DPZ:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) will be impacted by this new rise in gasoline prices.
Travel plans most likely have been disrupted and car travel trips will be down because of the new cost of travel.
Airlines thought things couldn't get worse, but they have.
We now know that aluminum joins steel in the potential overcapacity, courtesy of China. Those industries seem dangerous.
Chemicals and papers are the biggest users of energy, so they will suffer even more number cuts.
That's a lot of stocks where the numbers are too high.
To me, when all of these companies get their numbers cut, we will have to adjust, downward, in many cases.
Which, again, is why I am worried and defensive. It's why I have a big cash position in ActionAlertsPLUS. It's why I bought next to no stock last week.
And it's why I am uneasy about putting money to work today, unless merchandise is at a big discount to where it was two weeks ago, when many of these situations didn't exist. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
"Fearing a Swarm of Number Cuts"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/6/2005 8:59 AM EDT
Can't hide it; I am worried about this market. No, it is not the articles about the "tapped out" consumer, nor is it the endless pieces of anecdotal data that say retail's gotten tough.
What I am worried about is the numbers, as always. I think many quarterly and annual earnings estimates are just too high.
It's possible that almost all of the banks, for example, have numbers that are just plain too high or that can't be beaten substantially because of the yield curve.
You have to believe that the housing numbers could get hurt here. They might be too high after this hurricane catastrophe. The catastrophe freezes things, including big purchases. That won't be made up by insurance-paid rebuys from New Orleans people because I am sure most hope they can go back to their old homes. Who can blame them?
The auto companies have been selling their products at cut-rate levels for a long time now, and that's not going to boost gross margins. And while many of the auto companies sell vehicles that aren't gas guzzlers, the big profits are in the guzzlers. It's a whole industry where numbers are too high.
The Boeing (BA:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) strike, while long-term good for Boeing if it wins concessions, could slow down the whole aerospace chain, which, to date, had been blowing away the numbers. Do you really want to be in a titanium play or a cockpit play or a nacelle play if Boeing's production is shut for a quarter?
Retailers could be hurt in two ways: People don't want to shop with gasoline so high, and lots of retailers lost capacity in the Southeast from the storm. Not to mention that they might not be able to get supplies.
Casual restaurants can't do well when gasoline's above $3; it's better to eat at home. You even have to wonder if Domino's (DPZ:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) will be impacted by this new rise in gasoline prices.
Travel plans most likely have been disrupted and car travel trips will be down because of the new cost of travel.
Airlines thought things couldn't get worse, but they have.
We now know that aluminum joins steel in the potential overcapacity, courtesy of China. Those industries seem dangerous.
Chemicals and papers are the biggest users of energy, so they will suffer even more number cuts.
That's a lot of stocks where the numbers are too high.
To me, when all of these companies get their numbers cut, we will have to adjust, downward, in many cases.
Which, again, is why I am worried and defensive. It's why I have a big cash position in ActionAlertsPLUS. It's why I bought next to no stock last week.
And it's why I am uneasy about putting money to work today, unless merchandise is at a big discount to where it was two weeks ago, when many of these situations didn't exist. "
(in www.realmoney.com)