Sobre o discurso de Greenspan de hoje
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Sobre o discurso de Greenspan de hoje
David Merkel, um dos analistas do Realmoney, escrevu há pouco um interessante post sobr eo discurso de hoje de Greenspan:
David Merkel
When Alan Greenspan Talks, the Market Listens (apologies to E.F. Hutton)
8/26/2005 10:32 AM EDT
"As Alan Greenspan does his "Farewell Tour," today at Jackson Hole, he said the following in his speech:
The structure of our economy will doubtless change in the years ahead. In particular, our analysis of economic developments almost surely will need to deal in greater detail with balance sheet considerations than was the case in the earlier decades of the postwar period. The determination of global economic activity in recent years has been influenced importantly by capital gains on various types of assets, and the liabilities that finance them. Our forecasts and hence policy are becoming increasingly driven by asset price changes.
The steep rise in the ratio of household net worth to disposable income in the mid-1990s, after a half-century of stability, is a case in point. Although the ratio fell with the collapse of equity prices in 2000, it has rebounded noticeably over the past couple of years, reflecting the rise in the prices of equities and houses.
Whether the currently elevated level of the wealth-to-income ratio will be sustained in the longer run remains to be seen. But arguably, the growing stability of the world economy over the past decade may have encouraged investors to accept increasingly lower levels of compensation for risk. They are exhibiting a seeming willingness to project stability and commit over an ever more extended time horizon.
The lowered risk premiums--the apparent consequence of a long period of economic stability--coupled with greater productivity growth have propelled asset prices higher.5 The rising prices of stocks, bonds and, more recently, of homes, have engendered a large increase in the market value of claims which, when converted to cash, are a source of purchasing power. Financial intermediaries, of course, routinely convert capital gains in stocks, bonds, and homes into cash for businesses and households to facilitate purchase transactions.6 The conversions have been markedly facilitated by the financial innovation that has greatly reduced the cost of such transactions.
Thus, this vast increase in the market value of asset claims is in part the indirect result of investors accepting lower compensation for risk. Such an increase in market value is too often viewed by market participants as structural and permanent. To some extent, those higher values may be reflecting the increased flexibility and resilience of our economy. But what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher prices. This is the reason that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums. In short:
Greenspan is factoring asset prices more into FOMC decisions.
Greenspan sees market platers as more willling to take risk than before, and thus "risk premiums" are low. (Low credit spreads, investor-owned housing has negative carry, flat yield curve, etc.)
The stability engendering the willingness to take more risk has allowed financial institutions to lever up more.
Greenspan thinks this won't work out well in the long run.
No one can tell what Greenspan's successor will do, but rhetoric like this indicates an inverted curve until excesses (real or imagined) can be wrung out of the system.
The market reacted badly when his speech hit the wires. It will do worse if the FOMC carries through on the logical implications of what he has said. (Leaving aside for a moment the friendly foreigners that are more than undoing the FOMC's tightening actions...) "
(in www.realmoney.com)
David Merkel
When Alan Greenspan Talks, the Market Listens (apologies to E.F. Hutton)
8/26/2005 10:32 AM EDT
"As Alan Greenspan does his "Farewell Tour," today at Jackson Hole, he said the following in his speech:
The structure of our economy will doubtless change in the years ahead. In particular, our analysis of economic developments almost surely will need to deal in greater detail with balance sheet considerations than was the case in the earlier decades of the postwar period. The determination of global economic activity in recent years has been influenced importantly by capital gains on various types of assets, and the liabilities that finance them. Our forecasts and hence policy are becoming increasingly driven by asset price changes.
The steep rise in the ratio of household net worth to disposable income in the mid-1990s, after a half-century of stability, is a case in point. Although the ratio fell with the collapse of equity prices in 2000, it has rebounded noticeably over the past couple of years, reflecting the rise in the prices of equities and houses.
Whether the currently elevated level of the wealth-to-income ratio will be sustained in the longer run remains to be seen. But arguably, the growing stability of the world economy over the past decade may have encouraged investors to accept increasingly lower levels of compensation for risk. They are exhibiting a seeming willingness to project stability and commit over an ever more extended time horizon.
The lowered risk premiums--the apparent consequence of a long period of economic stability--coupled with greater productivity growth have propelled asset prices higher.5 The rising prices of stocks, bonds and, more recently, of homes, have engendered a large increase in the market value of claims which, when converted to cash, are a source of purchasing power. Financial intermediaries, of course, routinely convert capital gains in stocks, bonds, and homes into cash for businesses and households to facilitate purchase transactions.6 The conversions have been markedly facilitated by the financial innovation that has greatly reduced the cost of such transactions.
Thus, this vast increase in the market value of asset claims is in part the indirect result of investors accepting lower compensation for risk. Such an increase in market value is too often viewed by market participants as structural and permanent. To some extent, those higher values may be reflecting the increased flexibility and resilience of our economy. But what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher prices. This is the reason that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums. In short:
Greenspan is factoring asset prices more into FOMC decisions.
Greenspan sees market platers as more willling to take risk than before, and thus "risk premiums" are low. (Low credit spreads, investor-owned housing has negative carry, flat yield curve, etc.)
The stability engendering the willingness to take more risk has allowed financial institutions to lever up more.
Greenspan thinks this won't work out well in the long run.
No one can tell what Greenspan's successor will do, but rhetoric like this indicates an inverted curve until excesses (real or imagined) can be wrung out of the system.
The market reacted badly when his speech hit the wires. It will do worse if the FOMC carries through on the logical implications of what he has said. (Leaving aside for a moment the friendly foreigners that are more than undoing the FOMC's tightening actions...) "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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