A Bolha Imobiliária nos US
Enviado: 17/7/2005 16:58Pode ser um dos temas que marcará a próxima semana...creio que vale a pena ler.
U.S. Housing, Spending May Signal Fed to Raise Rates (Update1)
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Strength in the housing market and in consumer spending suggest the U.S. economy is growing fast enough to warrant more interest rate increases, economists expect Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to tell Congress this week.
``Greenspan is likely to maintain his characteristically upbeat tone, as the economy has performed well since his last appearance'' before Congress in February, said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York. ``We expect the chairman to give no sign that a pause in tightening is imminent.''
Greenspan is scheduled to share his economic views with lawmakers on July 20 and 21 in what may be his last appearance before Congress as head of the nation's central bank.
Economists expect a report this week to show that builders broke ground on more homes in June than in the previous month. A gauge of the economy's likely performance over the next six months probably rose the most in more than a year.
``The housing market continues to sizzle,'' said Joseph Abate, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. The risks to growth in the second half of the year ``are skewed to the upside,'' said Abate, who forecasts the economy will grow an average 3.5 percent from July through December.
Construction began on 2.05 million new homes at an annual rate last month, up 2 percent from 2.009 million in May, according to the median estimate of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Construction is on pace to surpass last year's 1.956 million homes, the most since 1978.
Building Permits
The July 19 construction report from the Commerce Department is also expected to show building permits rose to a 2.08 million rate last month from 2.062 million in May.
MDC Holdings Inc., a Denver-based homebuilder, said last week that second-quarter profit rose 24 percent as falling unemployment and rising consumer confidence boosted demand for new homes.
``It's still a very strong home-purchase market nationally,'' said David Daberko, chief executive at National City Corp., Ohio's biggest bank, in an interview July 15. Mortgage loan volumes ``should continue to be pretty good.''
Cleveland-based National City last week said second-quarter profit rose 20 percent on increases in mortgage revenue and deposit fees.
Home Prices
Existing home prices will rise 9.4 percent in 2005, the fastest pace in 25 years, spurred by low mortgage rates and a declining supply of houses for sale, according to a forecast earlier this month by the National Association of Realtors. Sales of existing homes probably will reach 6.97 million this year, a gain of 2.8 percent from the record 6.78 million sold in 2004, according to the forecast.
A jump in consumer sentiment about the economy's prospects last month will pace a 0.4 percent gain in the index of leading economic indicators, the biggest increase since May 2004, according to the survey median. The Conference Board, a New York- based research group, is due to issue the report July 21.
Starting with this release, the group will change how it calculates the index for the first time since 1996. The yield curve, or the difference between the Fed's target rate and the yield on the Treasury's 10-year note, will no longer subtract from the index when it narrows. The spread, one of 10 components that make up the gauge, will only subtract from the index when it inverts, or when the Fed rate rises above the note's yield.
The group will also revise all previous figures to comply with the new calculation method, probably diminishing the declines registered so far this year, economists said. The index dropped in four of the first five month of the year and was unchanged in April.
Forecasts
Economists this month raised their growth forecasts for this year's second half and said they expected the Fed to lift its interest rate target more as a result, a Bloomberg News survey taken from June 30 through July 11 showed.
The U.S., the world's largest economy, will grow at a 3.5 percent annual rate this quarter and 3.4 percent in the year's final three months, according to the survey results. Each figure is a 10th of a percentage point higher than economists predicted a month ago. The survey showed the central bank's rate target, currently at 3.25 percent, may reach 4 percent by year-end, a quarter-point higher than in the previous survey.
Greenspan became chairman of the central bank in 1987 and his non-renewable term as a Fed governor expires Jan. 31. On July 21, the central bank is also set to issue the minutes of its June 30 meeting, at which policy makers raised the target rate by a quarter percentage point for a ninth straight time.
He delivers his semi-annual policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Washington time on July 20 and to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee at 10 a.m. on July 21.
In other reports this week:
First-time claims for unemployment benefits probably fell to 327,000 last week from 336,000 a week earlier, a July 21 report from the Labor Department is expected to show. Claims are more volatile than usual during this time of year as automakers temporarily shut plants to retool equipment for the new model year, economists said.
Also that day, the Philadelphia Fed may report its factory index for the region covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware rose to 9.9 in July from minus 2.2 last month. Readings greater than zero signal growth.
Bloomberg Survey
Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior
07/19 8:30 June Housing Starts 2.05M 2.009M
07/21 8:30 7/16 Initial Jobless Claims 327K 336K
07/21 8:30 7/9 Continuing Claims 2603K 2617K
07/21 10:00 June Leading Indicators 0.4% -0.5%
07/21 12:00 July Philadelphia Fed 9.9 -2.2
U.S. Housing, Spending May Signal Fed to Raise Rates (Update1)
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Strength in the housing market and in consumer spending suggest the U.S. economy is growing fast enough to warrant more interest rate increases, economists expect Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to tell Congress this week.
``Greenspan is likely to maintain his characteristically upbeat tone, as the economy has performed well since his last appearance'' before Congress in February, said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York. ``We expect the chairman to give no sign that a pause in tightening is imminent.''
Greenspan is scheduled to share his economic views with lawmakers on July 20 and 21 in what may be his last appearance before Congress as head of the nation's central bank.
Economists expect a report this week to show that builders broke ground on more homes in June than in the previous month. A gauge of the economy's likely performance over the next six months probably rose the most in more than a year.
``The housing market continues to sizzle,'' said Joseph Abate, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. The risks to growth in the second half of the year ``are skewed to the upside,'' said Abate, who forecasts the economy will grow an average 3.5 percent from July through December.
Construction began on 2.05 million new homes at an annual rate last month, up 2 percent from 2.009 million in May, according to the median estimate of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Construction is on pace to surpass last year's 1.956 million homes, the most since 1978.
Building Permits
The July 19 construction report from the Commerce Department is also expected to show building permits rose to a 2.08 million rate last month from 2.062 million in May.
MDC Holdings Inc., a Denver-based homebuilder, said last week that second-quarter profit rose 24 percent as falling unemployment and rising consumer confidence boosted demand for new homes.
``It's still a very strong home-purchase market nationally,'' said David Daberko, chief executive at National City Corp., Ohio's biggest bank, in an interview July 15. Mortgage loan volumes ``should continue to be pretty good.''
Cleveland-based National City last week said second-quarter profit rose 20 percent on increases in mortgage revenue and deposit fees.
Home Prices
Existing home prices will rise 9.4 percent in 2005, the fastest pace in 25 years, spurred by low mortgage rates and a declining supply of houses for sale, according to a forecast earlier this month by the National Association of Realtors. Sales of existing homes probably will reach 6.97 million this year, a gain of 2.8 percent from the record 6.78 million sold in 2004, according to the forecast.
A jump in consumer sentiment about the economy's prospects last month will pace a 0.4 percent gain in the index of leading economic indicators, the biggest increase since May 2004, according to the survey median. The Conference Board, a New York- based research group, is due to issue the report July 21.
Starting with this release, the group will change how it calculates the index for the first time since 1996. The yield curve, or the difference between the Fed's target rate and the yield on the Treasury's 10-year note, will no longer subtract from the index when it narrows. The spread, one of 10 components that make up the gauge, will only subtract from the index when it inverts, or when the Fed rate rises above the note's yield.
The group will also revise all previous figures to comply with the new calculation method, probably diminishing the declines registered so far this year, economists said. The index dropped in four of the first five month of the year and was unchanged in April.
Forecasts
Economists this month raised their growth forecasts for this year's second half and said they expected the Fed to lift its interest rate target more as a result, a Bloomberg News survey taken from June 30 through July 11 showed.
The U.S., the world's largest economy, will grow at a 3.5 percent annual rate this quarter and 3.4 percent in the year's final three months, according to the survey results. Each figure is a 10th of a percentage point higher than economists predicted a month ago. The survey showed the central bank's rate target, currently at 3.25 percent, may reach 4 percent by year-end, a quarter-point higher than in the previous survey.
Greenspan became chairman of the central bank in 1987 and his non-renewable term as a Fed governor expires Jan. 31. On July 21, the central bank is also set to issue the minutes of its June 30 meeting, at which policy makers raised the target rate by a quarter percentage point for a ninth straight time.
He delivers his semi-annual policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Washington time on July 20 and to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee at 10 a.m. on July 21.
In other reports this week:
First-time claims for unemployment benefits probably fell to 327,000 last week from 336,000 a week earlier, a July 21 report from the Labor Department is expected to show. Claims are more volatile than usual during this time of year as automakers temporarily shut plants to retool equipment for the new model year, economists said.
Also that day, the Philadelphia Fed may report its factory index for the region covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware rose to 9.9 in July from minus 2.2 last month. Readings greater than zero signal growth.
Bloomberg Survey
Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior
07/19 8:30 June Housing Starts 2.05M 2.009M
07/21 8:30 7/16 Initial Jobless Claims 327K 336K
07/21 8:30 7/9 Continuing Claims 2603K 2617K
07/21 10:00 June Leading Indicators 0.4% -0.5%
07/21 12:00 July Philadelphia Fed 9.9 -2.2